Black Monday?

Post by **clv101** » 15 May 2006, 09:29

The markets are down sharply this morning, see this sea of red: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/ ... efault.stm

FTSE 100 Mon 09:10 5768.00 144.10 -2.44%
FTSE 250 Mon 09:11 9520.80 291.00 -2.97%

PowerSwitchJames · Post by **PowerSwitchJames** » 15 May 2006, 09:36

That really is a sharp decline! Bounced up a little bit just now but this will be interesting to follow today.

Pippa · Post by **Pippa** » 15 May 2006, 09:36

Gold is down too! Why?

www.atsbullion.com/Live-Charts-sp-5.html

Post by **mikepepler** » 15 May 2006, 11:29

I gather the weak dollar is what's causing falls in the US, that are spreading elsewhere. If the dollar continues to fall, should we expect to see oil prices rise as well? You can look at this several ways:
- oil has some real physical value, and if dollars are becoming worth less in real terms, oil prices should go up.
- oil exporters do not want to see their exports devalued, especially if they do a lot of non-dollar trade, so they will want to see prices rise.
- if the dollar falls against most other currencies, that makes oil cheaper for everyone but the US, so consumption should rise, causing prices to pick up.

However, if the falling dollar causes stock markets to fall, will that reduce oil demand later on? Or will falling stock markets make traders move into commodities looking for better places to invest? Arrrrgh - it's all to complicated!

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 15 May 2006, 13:12

mikepepler wrote:Arrrrgh - it's all to complicated!

Yes

Weaker Dollar does generally lead to higher oil prices. It's a 'rule of thumb' that seems to have been overwhelmed by the rush of speculation blood recently.

dr_doom · Post by **dr_doom** » 15 May 2006, 13:55

$70 seems like a golden buying opportunity.

A weaker dollar which doesn't seem to have fed through into the oil price yet for some reason and an imminent hurricane season.
I think we'll easily see 80-90+ before we see 60 again, if ever.

tattercoats · Post by **tattercoats** » 15 May 2006, 16:27

Just looking at the BBC news site, business pages, and West Texas Intermediate Crude seems to have vanished to nothing. I'm hoping that it's a typo. Very weird.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 17 May 2006, 16:41

THE MARKETS 16:38 UK

FTSE 100 5699.6 -146.60

Dax 5702.2 -149.71

Cac 40 4960.0 -121.72

Dow Jones 11272.1 -147.76

Nasdaq 2201.8 -27.30

S&P 500 1276.3 -15.81

BBC Global 30 5424.5 -77.11

Oh shit!

StephenCurran (Stef) · Post by **StephenCurran (Stef)** » 17 May 2006, 19:29

Totally_Baffled wrote: Oh Shit

Yo TB ;')
That inflation (CPI I think) report from the US really fracked up the markets.
They probably bounce tomorow.
(bugger, i've forgotten how to spell tomorrow)

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 17 May 2006, 21:31

StephenCurran (Stef) wrote:
Totally_Baffled wrote: Oh Shit
Yo TB ;')
That inflation (CPI I think) report from the US really fracked up the markets.
They probably bounce tomorow.
(bugger, i've forgotten how to spell tomorrow)

Phew - I thought me shares were knackered for a minute there!

Post by **mikepepler** » 18 May 2006, 07:28

Totally_Baffled wrote: Phew - I thought me shares were knackered for a minute there!

I must admit I'm somewhat surprised that anyone aware of Peak Oil and its proximity is still holding shares. Or are they exclusively in oil & gas, or renewables? Isn't it still something of a risk anyway? We've just seen the FTSE drop about 7.5% in a week or so... these instabilities are sure to get worse as time goes by I think.

dr_doom · Post by **dr_doom** » 18 May 2006, 11:25

mikepepler wrote:
Totally_Baffled wrote: Phew - I thought me shares were knackered for a minute there!
I must admit I'm somewhat surprised that anyone aware of Peak Oil and its proximity is still holding shares. Or are they exclusively in oil & gas, or renewables? Isn't it still something of a risk anyway? We've just seen the FTSE drop about 7.5% in a week or so... these instabilities are sure to get worse as time goes by I think.

You'd think. I told my old man about peak oil about 6 months ago, and he seems to get it. But obviously doesn't think it's going to be much of a big deal seeing as how he still has all his shares and isn't in a huge rush to start changing his portfolio. He even told me yesterday that it didn't matter if the stockmarket crashed because he's in it for the long-term.

The BBC doesn't help either. It completely ignores gold as it makes record gains throughout the year.
Then when it makes an inevitable short-term pullback "it's a bubble, and it's crashing".
No such language used to describe paper assets and property.

I wouldn't piss on the BBC if it was burning to the ground.

andyh · Post by **andyh** » 18 May 2006, 11:48

'I wouldn't **** on the BBC if it was burning to the ground'.

I suggest you come and spend a day in NZ and witness the total crapness of the broadcast media here before making that comment.........

dr_doom · Post by **dr_doom** » 18 May 2006, 12:46

andyh wrote:'I wouldn't **** on the BBC if it was burning to the ground'.

I suggest you come and spend a day in NZ and witness the total crapness of the broadcast media here before making that comment.........

Is it like the media they have in the states?

I was watching a documentary called outfoxed the other night and quite frankly I was shocked. Fox news has this guy called O'Reilly who is a complete right-wing nutter. 100% pro-war, anti-war protestors are traitors.

They had some lad on who's dad was killed in the 9/11 attrocities and the guy was close to hitting him towards the end of the interview, because he was so incensed that he dared voice his (liberal) views.

Well worth a watch.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 18 May 2006, 13:16

mikepepler wrote:
Totally_Baffled wrote: Phew - I thought me shares were knackered for a minute there!
I must admit I'm somewhat surprised that anyone aware of Peak Oil and its proximity is still holding shares. Or are they exclusively in oil & gas, or renewables? Isn't it still something of a risk anyway? We've just seen the FTSE drop about 7.5% in a week or so... these instabilities are sure to get worse as time goes by I think.

Hi Mike.

I dont hold many and they were options from work. I got them at around half of there current value , but i cannot sell the damn things until november!

I agree with you - PO awareness and shares dont mix!