If you add the ever increasing demand from nearly two billion Indian and Chinese to those graphs with a growth rate of c. 10% it means trouble as far as I'm concerned. OK they won't be able to keep up a 10% growth rate but they'll do their best. Add to that the fact that they've got cash, in China's case anyway, and it spells problems for the massively in debt West.
The US's problem will come when the Far East gets fed up with the depreciating dollar and dumps it. The US then becomes just another country in the world, like the rest of us. Hard times will follow for them then.
IEA chief economist -- "we peaked in 2006"
Moderator: Peak Moderation
-
kenneal - lagger
- Site Admin
- Posts: 14290
- Joined: 20 Sep 2006, 02:35
- Location: Newbury, Berkshire
- Contact:
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
-
ziggy12345
- Posts: 1235
- Joined: 28 Nov 2008, 10:49
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
Making stements after the fact. Thanks Ziggy, at least I now know what RGR was wrong about. Fatih Birol does not seem to have materially changed his position since the 1998 World Energy Outlook report which he confirmed to David Fleming in 1999 as declaring the then approaching peak, albeit in coded form but which Colin Campbell and a handful of others had spotted. Birol told Fleming that he was constrained from saying more at the time but he must have wanted the information to come out or he would not have come to London for the meeting with Fleming.
RGR is wrong to suggest that Fatih Birol is now making statements after the fact, or doing whatever it is that quarterbackers do on a Monday.
I have no idea what either a quarterbacker or a mourinho is.
RGR is wrong to suggest that Fatih Birol is now making statements after the fact, or doing whatever it is that quarterbackers do on a Monday.
I have no idea what either a quarterbacker or a mourinho is.
-
UndercoverElephant
- Posts: 13496
- Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
- Location: UK
Quarterback: the player in American Football who recieves the ball and attempts either to pass it a long way forwards or run with it.biffvernon wrote:
I have no idea what either a quarterbacker or a mourinho is.
Mourinho: "The Special One" - the greatest football manager who has ever lived (according to Jose Mourinho.) Currently manager of Real Madrid.
-
raspberry-blower
- Posts: 1868
- Joined: 14 Mar 2009, 11:26
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
Thank you so much for the education on football.
But Fatih Birol was no way a quarterbacking real madrid mourinho. He told us, in 1998, what was going to happen and now he is telling us what has happened.
It's like the guy who predicts a football game score, the prediction turns out to be true, and he then tells you so.
Only smarter.
But Fatih Birol was no way a quarterbacking real madrid mourinho. He told us, in 1998, what was going to happen and now he is telling us what has happened.
It's like the guy who predicts a football game score, the prediction turns out to be true, and he then tells you so.
Only smarter.
The oil traders are having a bad hair day. WTI dropped to $101.40 before bouncing. It seems they have just noticed that yesterday's stocks report included a very large fall in petrol consumption, and they clearly think that serious demand destruction has set in, as in Sept 2008.
I'm not sure, the stocks report has been all over the place in recent months, after a change in the way the EIA it collated its figures. This sudden fall is probably noise in the data after they tried to balance conflicting numbers month on month.
Of course, falling demand is just the inevitable consequence of falling supply. The lower the price, the less the oil companies will invest in new supplies. (waits for snide comments from usual suspect.....
)
Anyways, I calculate my personal demand destruction for oil powered transportation is about 35% this year
I'm not sure, the stocks report has been all over the place in recent months, after a change in the way the EIA it collated its figures. This sudden fall is probably noise in the data after they tried to balance conflicting numbers month on month.
Of course, falling demand is just the inevitable consequence of falling supply. The lower the price, the less the oil companies will invest in new supplies. (waits for snide comments from usual suspect.....
)Anyways, I calculate my personal demand destruction for oil powered transportation is about 35% this year
-
UndercoverElephant
- Posts: 13496
- Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
- Location: UK
-
biffvernon
- Posts: 18538
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Lincolnshire
- Contact:
http://www.manicore.com/fichiers/world_ ... k_1998.pdf
Go to page 101, third column, near the bottom, the number 19.1
That's the number that Colin Campbell pointed out to David Fleming who then wrote to Fatih Birol who then called Fleming and asked for a meeting and, in the library of the Oxford and Cambridge club, confirmed that the figure of 19.1 was a coded message that oil would have peaked and there was going to be a massive hole in the required supply by 2020. He asked Fleming not to say who told him but now he's come out. That was in 1999.
Fleming explained the whole story on the film 'Colin's Paradigm' by Richard O'Rourke, last year before he died.
Go to page 101, third column, near the bottom, the number 19.1
That's the number that Colin Campbell pointed out to David Fleming who then wrote to Fatih Birol who then called Fleming and asked for a meeting and, in the library of the Oxford and Cambridge club, confirmed that the figure of 19.1 was a coded message that oil would have peaked and there was going to be a massive hole in the required supply by 2020. He asked Fleming not to say who told him but now he's come out. That was in 1999.
Fleming explained the whole story on the film 'Colin's Paradigm' by Richard O'Rourke, last year before he died.