Global Crunch In Supplies Of Key Fertiliser

[Aurora]

NewsWise - 27/03/11

Global production of phosphorus fertilizer could peak and decline later this century, causing shortages and price spikes that jeopardize world food production, five major scientific societies warned today. The crisis will come at a time when Earth’s population may surge past 9 billion.

Rice, corn, wheat and other staple food crops require phosphorus, which along with nitrogen and potassium, is one of the three key fertilizer substances that sustain world food supply. Projections indicate that world population will rise from 6.8 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050.

Chemistry for a Sustainable Global Society warns not only about “peak phosphorus” — an echo of the more familiar concerns about “peak oil” — but raises red flags about the supply of other natural resources where monopolies or political instability could cut off supplies or inflate prices. They include rare earth elements (REEs) and precious metals like lithium, platinum and palladium that are needed to produce computers, mobile phones, rechargeable batteries, solar cells, fuel cells, medications, pollution control devices for cars and other key products.

Article continues ...

[2 As and a B]

Projections indicate that world population will rise from 6.8 billion today to 8.9 billion in 2050.

I've noticed this often being quoted recently. Is the assumption that a steady state will have been reached by 2050, so if we get there safely all problems would have been solved, or that there is nothing beyond 2050?

[RenewableCandy]

The people who came up with the 2050 thing assumed a slow decline thereafter, apparently. They put this down to "demographic Transition", the process by which people who are no longer scared of killer disease in childhood, and poverty in old age, tend to have fewer children (regardless, interestingly, of religious beliefs).

Whether they are right or not is another matter, mind. I shall be in my dotage by then so we may never know!

[Mark]

The people who came up with the 2050 thing assumed a slow decline thereafter, apparently. They put this down to "demographic Transition", the process by which people who are no longer scared of killer disease in childhood, and poverty in old age, tend to have fewer children (regardless, interestingly, of religious beliefs).

Whether they are right or not is another matter, mind. I shall be in my dotage by then so we may never know!

There's time yet - convert to Buddhism and return as a fly on the wall.
You could post as RenewableDragon(fly), but we'd expect you to let us know what happens....

[RenewableCandy]

That would be the ultimate test of Renewable-ness

[vtsnowedin]

That 8.9 billion figure makes quite a few assumptions the major one being that we will not run out of food or the water and fertilizer needed to produce it before that date. That seems increasingly unlikely considering all the changes that are taking place around us at present.
One shortage or another will put a stop to the human population growth long before we stop reproducing due to education or better health care.
The question is what will we run out of first?

[emordnilap]

What will halt population growth is inequality. It brings about war, famine and disease.

The haves encounter restrictions to their having more, bringing war.

The have-nots find themselves having even less, bringing the last two.

[vtsnowedin]

What will halt population growth is inequality. It brings about war, famine and disease.

The haves encounter restrictions to their having more, bringing war.

The have-nots find themselves having even less, bringing the last two.

I do not see much truth in that.
All the class warfare/ socialism vs. capitalism will soon become moot points against the reality of too many people compared to the available resources needed to support them.
None of the possible arrangements for society or government have a solution that solves the problems that approach us.
The system that wins out in the end will be the one that first truly realises the full truth of our situation and makes plans and takes positive actions that although not solving the problem at least take the most favorable course forward. It remains to be seen who will first see the light or if recognition will be fixed in one ideology or evenly spread across all the possibilities.

[2 As and a B]

So, instead of fighting to have the largest share of the cake on the Titanic, use it as a life-raft? It's a very big cake.

[vtsnowedin]

So, instead of fighting to have the largest share of the cake on the Titanic, use it as a life-raft? It's a very big cake.

I doubt the cake would work but perhaps the dinning room tables or the stateroom doors. There was a shortage of hammers and nails I'm sure. :roll

[emordnilap]

What will halt population growth is inequality. It brings about war, famine and disease.

The haves encounter restrictions to their having more, bringing war.

The have-nots find themselves having even less, bringing the last two.

I do not see much truth in that.

Well, there's plenty of food, for instance. Just that the minority world controls it all.

There are plenty of resources. We all need to live like Cubans.

[DominicJ]

Well,. although I'm all for protesters being shot, I'm not quite sure I want to starve whilst crops rot in the fields.

[vtsnowedin]

What will halt population growth is inequality. It brings about war, famine and disease.

The haves encounter restrictions to their having more, bringing war.

The have-nots find themselves having even less, bringing the last two.

I do not see much truth in that.

Well, there's plenty of food, for instance. Just that the minority world controls it all.

There are plenty of resources. We all need to live like Cubans.

Our present abundance of food has been brought about by the present abundance of oil. Soon we will have less oil each year but still have eighty million new mouths to feed each year! We will live like the Cubans soon enough but that will not solve the coming clash of the numbers.
Merely playing Robin Hood and taking from the rich to feed the poor will only prolong the chaos for a few years as a poor woman with subsidised food in her belly will get just a pregnant as one that raised her own food.

[Greedave]

Until the majority of people around the world buy into the fact that resources will become scarce not a lot will be done about it. Drastic changes can only be enforced by politics but politicians quite often only act if they come under great pressure to do so from the population (unless they are taking us into an illegal war of course but that's a different matter all together). Unfortunately for us in the UK we are so much smaller than the countries that could make a significant difference that it becomes even more difficult to influence the situation. I suppose we have to try to keep influencing the rest of the world where possible.

[vtsnowedin]

Here is an interesting chart of overpopulation. They don't say what they used for energy or water inputs in their calculations so I take it with a grain of salt. It does demonstrate the scope of the problem we are already facing.
http://www.optimumpopulation.org/overpo ... nindex.pdf