Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **adam2** » 16 Mar 2011, 12:42

As might be expected, natural gas prices are rising rapidly and are now only slightly below the peak reached in the severe weather at the end of last year.
This is likely to continue for some while and may become permanent.
Japenese demand will rise substantialy as they seek to replace the output from the damaged nuclear plant. This appears beyond repair, construction of a replacement will take some years, if indeed public opinion permits it all.
Other countries have anounced shutdowns for inspections, this could take some months, and any alterations that are recomended could take a while to implement.

Although our storage is down to about 23%, that should be enough at this time of year.
The question is, can it be refilled in time for next winter ? and if so at what price ?
Near term shortages appear unlikely, North Sea production can meet a large proportion of Summer demand, but some imports are still needed to meet demand, and substantial imports would be needed to fill the storage as well.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 16 Mar 2011, 13:35

DC will have to go back on his promise of cheaper fuel in the future. Bloody stupid thing to say in the first place.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 16 Mar 2011, 21:59

The Japanese will rebuild on the coast because they have nowhere else to build. That has been their culture for thousands of years. They know the risks.

The nuclear plant is a complete write-off. Even if it gets no worse it will cost billions to clean up the mess, and take many years. They have had nuclear power for less than a lifetime. It has a record of safety and coverup in Japan (like elsewhere) leading to widespread mistrust.

It is clear from this incident that many of the Japanese reactors are not safe in the conditions that exist in Japan. They may not have many energy alternatives, but they are still a powerful exporting economy and most of their debt is internal If they can't import more energy, they will adapt to less. They are a much more disciplined and pragmatic society than most Western ones. They will not build another nuclear plant.

I strongly suspect they will power down, at least for electricity.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 17 Mar 2011, 02:26

RalphW wrote:I strongly suspect they will power down, at least for electricity.

Saw a bit on the BBC News tonight saying that is what they are doing already.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 17 Mar 2011, 08:00

RalphW wrote:The Japanese will rebuild on the coast because they have nowhere else to build. That has been their culture for thousands of years. They know the risks.

The nuclear plant is a complete write-off. Even if it gets no worse it will cost billions to clean up the mess, and take many years. They have had nuclear power for less than a lifetime. It has a record of safety and coverup in Japan (like elsewhere) leading to widespread mistrust.

It is clear from this incident that many of the Japanese reactors are not safe in the conditions that exist in Japan. They may not have many energy alternatives, but they are still a powerful exporting economy and most of their debt is internal If they can't import more energy, they will adapt to less. They are a much more disciplined and pragmatic society than most Western ones. They will not build another nuclear plant.

I strongly suspect they will power down, at least for electricity.

Well, we shall see then.

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 18 Mar 2011, 02:19

RalphW wrote: They may not have many energy alternatives, but they are still a powerful exporting economy and most of their debt is internal If they can't import more energy, they will adapt to less. .

They were a powerful exporting economy.If they remain a powerful exporting economy is very much in doubt. How that outcome will effect your economy and mine remains to be seen.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 18 Mar 2011, 07:04

It's a lovely sunny spring day and the thread title is getting a tad anachronistic.

Post by **adam2** » 18 Mar 2011, 11:19

biffvernon wrote:It's a lovely sunny spring day and the thread title is getting a tad anachronistic.

I might edit the title to something more relevent all year round.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 18 Mar 2011, 12:29

biffvernon wrote:It's a lovely sunny spring day and the thread title is getting a tad anachronistic.

It's still cold at night!

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 18 Mar 2011, 12:56

With gas at 63p a therm, we are going to burn a lot of coal this year

vtsnowedin · Post by **vtsnowedin** » 19 Mar 2011, 07:33

RalphW wrote:With gas at 63p a therm, we are going to burn a lot of coal this year

Won't the price of coal rise in parallel with the price of gas?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 19 Mar 2011, 14:51

Coal is more a local market than gas.

It's low energy density means it is not shipped further than necessary. If the mine isn't near the sea or navigable river, it is burnt locally or not at all.

We import a lot of eastern European coal, by sea. Yes the pice goes up, but we are not competing with China or Japan for the coal we import.

Gas can be used for electricity, domesticheating/cooking, transport, fertilizer and as a chemical feedstock. Coal is used for electricity.

Coal has carbon taxes to discourage its use here. Gas has to go up a lot to make coal popular.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 19 Mar 2011, 16:37

HEY what happened to the "big freeze"?? It's still continuing up here (though the sun's out at the mo.) And last year it was cold all "summer". Anachronistic my a&$e.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 19 Mar 2011, 18:06

RenewableCandy wrote:HEY what happened to the "big freeze"?? It's still continuing up here (though the sun's out at the mo.) And last year it was cold all "summer". Anachronistic my a&$e.

I had a big icicle hanging from my van's waste water pipe this morning!

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 20 Mar 2011, 03:29

We had -4.5C last night.