The end of the begining of the end

J. R. Ewing · Post by **J. R. Ewing** » 05 Mar 2011, 20:41

I've been massively confident that life as we know would end at sometime during 2012 but now I'm begining to feel that date was quite optamistic.

The way things are going now the whole could burst before summer time.

I've decided when the riots kick off over here in blighty that I won't bother joining them. I bet even to the end they never mention anything about demand now outstripping supply.

Tawney · Post by **Tawney** » 05 Mar 2011, 20:48

I’ve always expected dramatic things to happen between Oct 2011 and spring 2013 (don’t ask). I hope we’re not ahead of schedule.

Prono 007 · Post by **Prono 007** » 05 Mar 2011, 22:56

Nah.

I think the worst case will probably be another global recession like 2008 or possibly a bit worse. Demand for oil will collapse, the price of oil will drop back down. It might not be as bad as 2008 if there's no equivalent of the subprime meltdown.

We're still in the beginning phase.

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 05 Mar 2011, 23:07

sure prono?

Post by **mikepepler** » 06 Mar 2011, 08:54

I'm not sure either. Hoping we have longer, but not sure.

I don't necessarily think it will be a collapse into chaos though, but a huge step change in how we live and our relative wealth. Just looking at the potholes in the roads which are probably never going to be fixed is a sign of things to come...

Collapse into chaos is still possible though.

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 06 Mar 2011, 10:33

What a disappointment it will be if it all returns to normal

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 06 Mar 2011, 11:30

ziggy12345 wrote:What a disappointment it will be if it all returns to normal

For the billion people who don't have clean water or enough to eat right now, I'm sure you're right.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 06 Mar 2011, 11:32

Prono 007 wrote:Nah.

I think the worst case will probably be another global recession like 2008 or possibly a bit worse. Demand for oil will collapse, the price of oil will drop back down. It might not be as bad as 2008 if there's no equivalent of the subprime meltdown.

But the subprime meltdown is still happening, in the form of the bailouts of the banks. It hasn't even properly collapsed yet!

I'm currently reading "Whoops!" by John Lanchester:

http://www.DODGY TAX AVOIDERS.co.uk/Whoops-Why-ever ... t_ep_dpi_1

It really brings home how staggeringly, almost unimaginably huge the financial crisis is. Even if it weren't for Peak Oil and the existing public debt, governments would still be bankrupting themselves to keep the banks alive.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 06 Mar 2011, 13:44

J. R. Ewing wrote:I've been massively confident that life as we know would end at sometime during 2012 but now I'm begining to feel that date was quite optamistic.

The way things are going now the whole could burst before summer time.

I've decided when the riots kick off over here in blighty that I won't bother joining them. I bet even to the end they never mention anything about demand now outstripping supply.

"They" are already mentioning this.

The perfect storm is building up fast now, but I'm still going with late 2012 for the time when the real fun starts.

MisterE · Post by **MisterE** » 06 Mar 2011, 17:56

Ludwig wrote:
Prono 007 wrote:Nah.

I think the worst case will probably be another global recession like 2008 or possibly a bit worse. Demand for oil will collapse, the price of oil will drop back down. It might not be as bad as 2008 if there's no equivalent of the subprime meltdown.
But the subprime meltdown is still happening, in the form of the bailouts of the banks. It hasn't even properly collapsed yet!

I'm currently reading "Whoops!" by John Lanchester:

http://www.DODGY TAX AVOIDERS.co.uk/Whoops-Why-ever ... t_ep_dpi_1

It really brings home how staggeringly, almost unimaginably huge the financial crisis is. Even if it weren't for Peak Oil and the existing public debt, governments would still be bankrupting themselves to keep the banks alive.

Could not of said it better myself. We are f*****d and the people aided this system are all still in power and still at it. Recession, followed by double dip, followed by depression is the most likely future. Plus watch all the leaders do runners with the cash and sit back and watch the carnage. But in some crazy way, being hit back to nothing maybe what this communitless society needs. All I know is, its not over yet.

Prono 007 · Post by **Prono 007** » 06 Mar 2011, 19:00

maudibe wrote:sure prono?

No I'm that not sure of anything really. I see things could go one of two ways. That is a) revolution in Saudi Arabia or b) not.

If the day of rage kicks things into a protracted struggle AND crucially this does have a major impact on oil production then I think that would certainly be the end of the beginning. But SA is brutal, rich, and has the support of the USA.

But there are a lot 'ifs' and SA seems to be a very big unknown. As is Iran, Bahrain etc.

I don't think it's the end of the beginning yet and it won't be until at least until Friday.

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 06 Mar 2011, 20:48

yep

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 06 Mar 2011, 22:09

Prono 007 wrote:
maudibe wrote:sure prono?
No I'm that not sure of anything really. I see things could go one of two ways. That is a) revolution in Saudi Arabia or b) not.

If the day of rage kicks things into a protracted struggle AND crucially this does have a major impact on oil production then I think that would certainly be the end of the beginning. But SA is brutal, rich, and has the support of the USA.

You raise a good point Prono, the US will not sit back and watch their world come to an end, due to the sudden stoppage of Saudi Oil...... mind you what are the implications if they step in and take direct action?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 06 Mar 2011, 22:32

snow hope wrote:
Prono 007 wrote:
maudibe wrote:sure prono?
No I'm that not sure of anything really. I see things could go one of two ways. That is a) revolution in Saudi Arabia or b) not.

If the day of rage kicks things into a protracted struggle AND crucially this does have a major impact on oil production then I think that would certainly be the end of the beginning. But SA is brutal, rich, and has the support of the USA.
You raise a good point Prono, the US will not sit back and watch their world come to an end, due to the sudden stoppage of Saudi Oil...... mind you what are the implications if they step in and take direct action?

What could they do?

The US has learned in Iraq that you cannot just occupy a country in order to secure its oil output. If the people of that country believe you have no right to be there then they are able to make the situation intolerable. Al-qaeda will move in, people will blow up oil pipelines, US soldiers will die...

The US doesn't want to sit back and watch, but there is no obvious means of intervening which is guaranteed to make things better rather than worse. It would also be politically very difficult and the they can't afford it.

postie · Post by **postie** » 06 Mar 2011, 23:20

UndercoverElephant wrote: The US doesn't want to sit back and watch, but there is no obvious means of intervening which is guaranteed to make things better rather than worse. It would also be politically very difficult and the they can't afford it.

Blood is always cheaper than oil...

They'll dive in, if Saudi looks like it will fall, and if they can't prop up the House of Saud, they'll help it tumble.. and help those who want to take over...and make friends with the next oligarchy. If they can't do that, the next best option is to.. hell... make pals with Iran or Venezuela

BUT.. it's quite possibly a long way from that yet.

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