Libya

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 23 Feb 2011, 11:32

Nice piece from Simon Jenkins - clinical asessment of UK's hypocracy - democracy for #arab would or weapons -not both http://ow.ly/1s4htz

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Feb 2011, 11:37

DominicJ wrote: I was unaware Turkey was a vassel state that needed our permission....
Who exactly was going to stop Turkey bombing the terrorists within its borders, and in Northern Iraq and Iran?
They invaded Iraq againsts US protests recently.

The US have absolute control of the air over Iraq. Turkey would not have sent up a spotter plane without permission from the US first.

End of story.

Cabrone · Post by **Cabrone** » 23 Feb 2011, 11:50

Ludwig wrote:
Cabrone wrote:The West imposed a no fly zone to protect the Kurds
... And then gave Turkey the go-ahead to bomb them - see "The New Rulers of the World" by John Pilger.

Don't be taken in by the surface explanations given for world events. Pretty much every apparently ethical aspect of Western foreign policy has just been window dressing. If we have brought any good good to foreign nations, it has only ever been a side-effect of pursuing our own interests.

But surely getting rid of Gadaffi is one of those events that is both in the West's and the Libyan protester's interests.

If Gadaffi manages to get a grip back on Libya we will be facing an oil rich state run by an isolated madman with a serious grudge against the West (according to his recent rants).

What if he trades oil for lots of weapons from say the Chinese (they want the oil and don't give a toss who they get it from) and then with all his money (that he can't spend with western companies) he invites (and funds) every terrorist group with a grudge against the west to come and stay for training\planning etc.......

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Feb 2011, 12:01

Absolutely. Sometimes a week is a long time in geopolitics.

caspian · Post by **caspian** » 23 Feb 2011, 12:27

Ludwig wrote:... And then gave Turkey the go-ahead to bomb them - see "The New Rulers of the World" by John Pilger.

Don't be taken in by the surface explanations given for world events. Pretty much every apparently ethical aspect of Western foreign policy has just been window dressing. If we have brought any good good to foreign nations, it has only ever been a side-effect of pursuing our own interests.

100% agree with this. The New Rulers of the World is essential reading, as is Mark Curtis' Web Of Deceit: Britain's Real Role in the World and Bill Blum's Rogue State: A Guide to the World's Only Superpower.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 23 Feb 2011, 12:34

RalphW

The US have absolute control of the air over Iraq. Turkey would not have sent up a spotter plane without permission from the US first.
End of story.

You may wish to read up on an event called "The Berlin Airlift".

So, in your world, If Turkey was denied permission and did it anyway, the US would shock and awe Turkey?

Scary scary place you must live in.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 23 Feb 2011, 12:59

Dom,

The Berlin Airlift was based on previously agreed air corridors, which although challenged by fighter incursions and even collisions, were not closed by shooting down transports because the Soviets didn't want to up the ante any further.

The US Defense and State Depts may take a similar view, especially concerning a NATO member.

What military history do you read in 'your world'? It sounds like a very condescending place.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Feb 2011, 13:00

The US and Turkey have been 'allies' for over 50 years. Major US airbases and nuclear missile bases in Turkey.

Turkey is as likely to ignore a dikdat from the US as the UK is, if we decided to bomb Germany. It ain't going to happen. Of course, being long term allies, the US was open to reasonable negotiation on the problem of insurgents based in Iraq.

The US probably wouldn't shoot the Turkish planes out of the sky. However, the Turkish people would find they had a new leader in a matter of months.

Turkey does very well by US patronage

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001 ... 78266.html

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/156924.html

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Feb 2011, 13:15

Time to panic?

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... 61,00.html

...but a source close to the Gaddafi regime I did manage to get hold of told me the already terrible situation in Libya will get much worse. Among other things, Gaddafi has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities. They will start by blowing up several oil pipelines, cutting off flow to Mediterranean ports. The sabotage, according to the insider, is meant to serve as a message to Libya's rebellious tribes: It's either me or chaos.

[edit]

Looks like traders have noticed. Brent over $108.

This might be true, idle rumour, or a deliberate plant to provide political cover for sending in troops.

I now expect predator drones are already in the air.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 23 Feb 2011, 13:24

Cabrone wrote:
Ludwig wrote:
Cabrone wrote:The West imposed a no fly zone to protect the Kurds
... And then gave Turkey the go-ahead to bomb them - see "The New Rulers of the World" by John Pilger.

Don't be taken in by the surface explanations given for world events. Pretty much every apparently ethical aspect of Western foreign policy has just been window dressing. If we have brought any good good to foreign nations, it has only ever been a side-effect of pursuing our own interests.
But surely getting rid of Gadaffi is one of those events that is both in the West's and the Libyan protester's interests.

If Gadaffi manages to get a grip back on Libya we will be facing an oil rich state run by an isolated madman with a serious grudge against the West (according to his recent rants).

If the West helped him stay in power, he would get over his grudge easily enough.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 23 Feb 2011, 13:27

Mean Mr Mustard wrote: The Berlin Airlift was based on previously agreed air corridors, which although challenged by fighter incursions and even collisions, were not closed by shooting down transports because the Soviets didn't want to up the ante any further.

Exactly my point.
Ralph is argueing that Turkey is a vassel state for the US President he commands as thouroughly as a person playing Sim City.
They have a relationship, unequal yes, but Turkey is more than capable of ignoring the US and there isnt a damned thing the US can realisticaly do to prevent it.

Turkey is as likely to ignore a dikdat from the US as the UK is, if we decided to bomb Germany. It ain't going to happen. Of course, being long term allies, the US was open to reasonable negotiation on the problem of insurgents based in Iraq.

The Suez Crisis, France, the UK and Israel (three states you seem to think are puppets) beat the stuffing oput of Egypt and occupied about a quarter of the country. Ignoring US demands to withdraw.

We eventualy backed down when the US precipitated a run on the pound, the French had taken steps to prevent such a move on the Franc, had we done so, the US would have been left with the choice of going to war to evict us or letting us stay.

Your allies are quite often far more dangerous than your enemies...

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Feb 2011, 14:07

Suez was over 50 years ago. The US opposed it. The Stirling collapsed.

We had a new leader within weeks.

Those events were linked. I am saying we don't do squat without US say so. It was true then, it is even more true today. My brother works in security. He spends half his time talking to the Americans.

We have just confirmed we are spending the full whack on Trident, no cuts in that budget. We are doing nothing to cut the banker's moneyfest. (OK that one is the corporations pulling our strings. We have a different lord and master now).

EDIT

All I originally said (read the post) was that the US controls Iraq airspace.
That is absolutely true. Turkey knows better than to go in without US sayso first.

Everything else is political/economic.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 Feb 2011, 14:17

Brent spot is now ahead of front month future price. ($109)

This looks like trader panic.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 23 Feb 2011, 14:29

RalphW wrote:All I originally said (read the post) was that the US controls Iraq airspace.
That is absolutely true. Turkey knows better than to go in without US sayso first.

Everything else is political/economic.

Having said that, didn't Turkey deny the US the right to use them as a base for some recent venture?

Peter.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 23 Feb 2011, 14:53

Yep, the toppling of Sadam was supposed to be launched from three fronts.
UK First Armoured Divison would invade Northern Iraq from bases in Turkey, US Infantry (really armoured) divisions would invade the south and west from Saudi Arabia.

The Turks changed their minds, quite late on actualy, it was a bit of a nightmare, and one of the reasons soldiers were out patroling with half a dozen rounds.
The supplies had all been routed to Turkey and hadnt yet caught up.