jonny2mad wrote:Think about this now we grew food on every bit of land we could, had a largely thrifty and agricultural population, and had food imports from America and the empire and we barely fed a 30 million population, now we are near a 70 million population
See page 82, 'Calorific potential of UK agriculture'. With a much changed diet, Britain can feed itself.
Good find Chris
Just had a quick read under 'UK productive capacity' and if all croppable area was turned over to wheat (ok that is a bit extreme) the UK could provide 7,000 calories per person!!!
Its not enough to provide our current heavy meat diet, and current food waste rates, but more than triple what each adult requires to survive!
If we all starve it will be political/economic **** up rather than the means to do it!
jonny2mad wrote:Think about this now we grew food on every bit of land we could, had a largely thrifty and agricultural population, and had food imports from America and the empire and we barely fed a 30 million population, now we are near a 70 million population
See page 82, 'Calorific potential of UK agriculture'. With a much changed diet, Britain can feed itself.
A DEFRA report isn't going to announce mass starvation, is it? I mean, look at some of its assumptions:
Total UK agricultural area has fallen by around 2% over the last 20 years whilst cereal yields have risen over this period. This suggests an increasing trend in this indicator despite a rising population and increased housing
No mention of what would happen to this trend if we ran out of oil-based fertiliser and pesticide.
It repeats this assumption:
Preliminary estimates (not set out here) show that, if necessary, UK agriculture could feed itself with a changed diet. This capability has not changed since mid 1990s, and in general this would be a relatively stable indicator as little land is lost out of agriculture and yields are increasing over time which will offset the impact of rising population.
I'm not saying Britain couldn't feed itself, but I take the assertions of DEFRA with a grain of salt.
"We're just waiting, looking skyward as the days go down / Someone promised there'd be answers if we stayed around."
RenewableCandy wrote:What I'd like to see happen is, the Great British Public do a WWII, as in grow some more food (this is kind of happening, but slowly), save energy, pull together, and support rationing.
Our "ward" (about 5 square miles on the edge of the city) is being sent over 500 useful native trees for us to plant in various public places. This is after giving away free fruit trees for private gardens last autumn (of course I got one). There's a popular move afoot to get the speed limit lowered to make it safer to cycle (so ppl can get used to it ), they're also insulating (and possibly putting renewables on) our local public buildings. Loads of houses have had their walls and roofs insulated. It's not going very fast, but they keep more people on board that way.
It will be hard to get a majority to support any rationing scheme. The rich always get around it by buying up poor peoples shares on the black market that always develops even in war time. Rising prices will do as much without all the bureaucracy and with a lot less waste.
Here in the US the first step would be to raise fuel taxes on a regular pre announced schedule so that people can change over the auto fleet and perhaps move closer to their jobs in a orderly unpanicked situation. So far any mention of raising it even a nickel a gallon has been soundly panned by every politician running for reelection. Until the polls say that is the way to go the politicians will stick to what got them elected last time.
I don't know how true this is is but someone told me today that there are now more horses in Britain than ever. Another stable is being built in a field down my lane. Food shortage? No sign of it in Lincolnshire.
biffvernon wrote:I don't know how true this is is but someone told me today that there are now more horses in Britain than ever. Another stable is being built in a field down my lane. Food shortage? No sign of it in Lincolnshire.
"Just because today is like yesterday, don't assume that tomorrow will be like today."
"We're just waiting, looking skyward as the days go down / Someone promised there'd be answers if we stayed around."
biffvernon wrote:I don't know how true this is is but someone told me today that there are now more horses in Britain than ever. Another stable is being built in a field down my lane. Food shortage? No sign of it in Lincolnshire.
In 1895 there were 300,000 horses in London alone and over 3,000,000 in the whole of England and Scotland, Today there are somewhat less then a million. still a million is a lot of hay-burners for the occasional ride on a bridle path. A very expensive pet to have around.
While stating that he does not subscribe to the theory of “peak oil,” the former Aramco board member does believe that a global output plateau will be reached in the next 5 to 10 years and will last some 15 years, until world oil production begins to decline. Additionally, al-Husseini expressed the view that the recent surge in oil prices reflects the underlying reality that global demand has met supply, and is not due to artificial market distortions.
Eh?
So what is the difference between "a global output plateau will be reached in the next 5 to 10 years and will last some 15 years, until world oil production begins to decline" and "the theory of “peak oil"?
Oh that is just brilliant! "While I don't subscribe to the 'theory' of peak oil I will take the theory of peak oil to be axiomatic and make predictions about future global oil production which are based on the shape of the oil supply curve predicted by that theory".
I'm not even sure you can sensibly refer to the 'peak oil theory' it's simply a restatement of the central limit theorem (and practical application thereof). Isn't the difference between a 'theory' and a 'theorem' that the former requires empirical verification and cannot be proven merely disproved while it is possible to provide a proof for the latter.
There is a proof of the central limit theorem. It is just TRUE - a priori. It is not contingent on any empirical observation.
Anyway the only thing I'm taking away from that cable is the date and the timeline.
And one can wonder why or how KSA would go through a fifteen year plateau when this case hasn't happened to any country passing its peak (or maximum production point, whatever)
Alain75 wrote:And one can wonder why or how KSA would go through a fifteen year plateau when this case hasn't happened to any country passing its peak (or maximum production point, whatever)
Not to hard to figure out. A single authority has control over that supply and their reserve is far in excess of their need for funds today.Any barrel they don't pump at $89 today can be pumped for $250 some time in the future. It would have been wise to treat every giant field in the world similarly and extended our oil supply for centuries. Instead we have pumped it out at 7 to 30 bucks a barrel to waste it heating uninsulated houses and flogging around in gas guzzler cars.
vtsnowedin wrote:
Not to hard to figure out. A single authority has control over that supply and their reserve is far in excess of their need for funds today.Any barrel they don't pump at $89 today can be pumped for $250 some time in the future. It would have been wise to treat every giant field in the world similarly and extended our oil supply for centuries. Instead we have pumped it out at 7 to 30 bucks a barrel to waste it heating uninsulated houses and flogging around in gas guzzler cars.
Fully agree with you on principle, but not sure at all that this has been, or is the politics of the Saudis, when major fields start to decline, picture could very well be the usual one.
@MrG
Yes correct, he was indeed talking about 15 years plateau at global level.
), they're also insulating (and possibly putting renewables on) our local public buildings. Loads of houses have had their walls and roofs insulated. It's not going very fast, but they keep more people on board that way.
