Peak Oil Wikileaks

[featherstick]

Stoneleigh makes that point in her ptn. Countries that produce oil also use oil, increasingly so, and as a result there will be different expectations about who gets to use the oil that is pumped.

[woodpecker]

From the cable:

While stating that he does not subscribe to the theory of “peak oil,” the former Aramco board member does believe that a global output plateau will be reached in the next 5 to 10 years and will last some 15 years, until world oil production begins to decline. Additionally, al-Husseini expressed the view that the recent surge in oil prices reflects the underlying reality that global demand has met supply, and is not due to artificial market distortions.

Eh?

So what is the difference between "a global output plateau will be reached in the next 5 to 10 years and will last some 15 years, until world oil production begins to decline" and "the theory of “peak oil"?

In several cables, it seems to be "the doomsday theory of peak oil".

Not sure what the difference is TBH, or of the difference between peak oil and "this inflection point" either. I suspect USA Towers has a bee in its bonnet about anything peaky being doomsday, so distance has to be created - by creative use of language - in order for the message to be heard.

[nexus]

The theory of peak oil has politically incorrect 'baggage'.

Don't you mean 'politically inconvenient baggage'?

[woodpecker]

Some of the other cables comment on inability to affect market through price, inelasticity, owing to state subsidies in China, India, most of Middle East. The 'normal' impact of price is not there. And China etc unlikely to remove subsidies owing to problems at home.

[PS_RalphW]

It also refers to rising domestic demand reducing exports, the now famous 'Export Land Model' by WestTexas over at TOD.

I think it was Orlov who said that prophets of doom will always be Cassandras. They can yell all they like, they will be ignored. And when reality proves them right, they will be forgotten.

[Yves75]

Some of the other cables comment on inability to affect market through price, inelasticity, owing to state subsidies in China, India, most of Middle East. The 'normal' impact of price is not there. And China etc unlikely to remove subsidies owing to problems at home.

Seems to me China hasn't got any subsidies on fuels now, or at least almost none. One can wonder why the US keep their ridiculous gas tax level though, they are still and by far, the first consumer, and raising their tax would be in their best pure self economic interest.
As to the land export model, oil is also the first if not only revenu for a country like KSA

[Silas]

Nothing to worry about BBC ignoring it, many more important things, royal wedding this year you know, merril streeper in film about thatcher, city donates to tory's, footsee over 6000 , nothing to see here business a usual, ignorrrr the silly man with a beard and a plackard saying 'the end of the world is nigh'
stay calm and drink your tea.

[clv101]

I emailed the BBC:

Hello,

I have noticed The Guardian covering a very interesting new Wikileak concerning oil reserves in Saudi Arabia.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011 ... -wikileaks

This story is of critical importance as all governments' growth projections over the coming decades rely on Saudi Arabian oil meeting IEA production projections. The leak suggests this might not be possible.

I would be great to see the BBC cover this story.

[raspberry-blower]

Really should be no surprise on here.

Might come as a shock to meemoe

[vtsnowedin]

If you get the BBC and the Times to cover the story and fully inform the public what happens or should happen? Other then increased activity on this and similar peak oil web sites that is.

[RenewableCandy]

What I'd like to see happen is, the Great British Public do a WWII, as in grow some more food (this is kind of happening, but slowly), save energy, pull together, and support rationing.

Our "ward" (about 5 square miles on the edge of the city) is being sent over 500 useful native trees for us to plant in various public places. This is after giving away free fruit trees for private gardens last autumn (of course I got one). There's a popular move afoot to get the speed limit lowered to make it safer to cycle (so ppl can get used to it ), they're also insulating (and possibly putting renewables on) our local public buildings. Loads of houses have had their walls and roofs insulated. It's not going very fast, but they keep more people on board that way.

[jonny2mad]

Think about this now we grew food on every bit of land we could, had a largely thrifty and agricultural population, and had food imports from America and the empire and we barely fed a 30 million population, now we are near a 70 million population

[clv101]

Think about this now we grew food on every bit of land we could, had a largely thrifty and agricultural population, and had food imports from America and the empire and we barely fed a 30 million population, now we are near a 70 million population

It really doesn't work like that.

Have a read of this report.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/food/p ... 100105.pdf

See page 82, 'Calorific potential of UK agriculture'. With a much changed diet, Britain can feed itself.

[Lord Beria3]

No worry am I going veggie!

[phobos]