Peak oil: Investors and Fund Managers

[vtsnowedin]

I'm not qualified to give advise nor am I in the market for any but just find the market interesting as always. I threw the gold comment out there just as a word of caution based on real past observations.
I say I am unqualified due to the fact that I pulled what little I had in stocks out when the DOW was at 9500. It hit 12000 last week.
I retired at age 51 and have already received back most of my initial contributions. I give it a fifty/ fifty chance that those checks will stop coming some day in the future or become valueless due to inflation. I own land and a home which are paid for and I am carrying less then one years income in debt which I am rapidly reducing toward zero. We have sent three children through college and have a BA two BSs and a PHD and another PHD in progress. Those may still be the family's largest asset. Other then improvements to the house to meet HMs requirements the only investment I want to make is a new diesel tractor for the doomstead.

[PowerSwitchJames]

It was suggested, I think by Colin Campbell, that as soon as the 'peak oil' cat was out of the bag that the financial system would collapse on itself in the rush to move investments. ... I'm sure such a herd mentality will kick in during crunch times, but I also retain a slither of hope that maybe the investment community will be smart, see the trouble coming, and divert their flow of capital to soften the blow.

Was anything said about what they would move out of and what they would move into?

From the analyst, he just suggested better performing oil and oil service stocks.

[PowerSwitchJames]

As a matter of interest, James, why were you present? Are you an investment manager?


Peter.

Far from it! I work for a charity, but it was organised by a group we have links to.

[PowerSwitchJames]

That is interesting indeed!

I have a few questions from the points above. From point 1, is it common amongst investors to know about PO, or was this mini-conference aimed at people already in the know? Or did they come with half an understanding?

I think it depends on the type of investors. The people there I think knew about it, and they worked for big investors.

from Point 2: Wouldn't it be detrimental to a fund manager to tell an investor about PO.. especially if they're looking at medium long term profits?

I think they don't have the doom view - just looking at the positives, or how to get out of negatives. They're gamblers, and they think they'll gamble to success.

from point 3: Could you explain the 3 scenarios the analyst proposed, and how does that affect investors especially? (I'm not an investor btw.. I can barely afford to invest in my next pint of beer atm)

[/quote]
Fairly standard scenarios - peak long way off, peak mid-term, peak short term.