$70 Oil Competition #2? What's your guess?

DaBeeeenster · Post by **DaBeeeenster** » 17 Apr 2006, 23:48

andyh wrote:surely now time to start the next competition? $80 the target?

Given the way things are developing with regards to Iran, I'd suggest sooner rather than later...

dr_doom · Post by **dr_doom** » 17 Apr 2006, 23:57

DaBeeeenster wrote:
andyh wrote:surely now time to start the next competition? $80 the target?
Given the way things are developing with regards to Iran, I'd suggest sooner rather than later...

Don't be silly. When we have a confrontation with Iran it will remove uncertainty and bring prices down.

Steve Forbes says so:

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/04/17/for ... oil-prices

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 18 Apr 2006, 08:51

You'd think this group would tend to be a bit gung-ho when it comes to predicting price rises yet 25 out of 26 of us underestimated the speed of change.

dr_doom.................March 23
snow hope..............April 20
MacG.......................April 21
tattercoats..............May 5
DamianB..................May 19
grinu........................May 23
Joules......................June 6
biffvernon................June 21
mikepepler..............June 25
Ballard.....................June 29
clv101......................July 3
wayne72..................July 4
GD............................July 14
andyH......................July 18
Neily at the Peak.....July 26
SherryMayo.............July 28
Pete_M....................Aug 1
Bandidoz.................Aug 6
RogerCO.................Aug 12
GAZ.........................Aug 18
frankd2689..............Aug 20
XENG.......................Aug 23
newmac....................Sept 6
PowerSwitchJames...Sept 7
Totally_Baffled........Sept 11
oobers....................Sept 30

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Apr 2006, 09:17

Good point Biff.

Nymex WTI front month officially closed at $70.40 yesterday. Rather sneaky, jumping over $70 while we're all on vacation.

WTI for May delivery is now $70.77, while June Brent is $72.05. Very scary altogether. See you on the new thread.

newmac · Post by **newmac** » 18 Apr 2006, 09:29

Before you go Tess, can you give us an insight into why Brent is higher than WTI (taking into account market opening time differences).

Is it because when physcological barriers are broken the normal $1 difference is blurred whilst the pressure eases off and people settle into the new "acceptable" price range? Or is there something different going on?

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 18 Apr 2006, 09:46

andyh wrote:surely now time to start the next competition? $80 the target?

Why not $100 when we are at it? I'll jump in with 12 JUN 2006

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Apr 2006, 10:24

newmac wrote:Before you go Tess, can you give us an insight into why Brent is higher than WTI (taking into account market opening time differences).

Is it because when physcological barriers are broken the normal $1 difference is blurred whilst the pressure eases off and people settle into the new "acceptable" price range? Or is there something different going on?

June WTI is at $72.11.
June Brent is at $71.65

So actually WTI is higher than Brent right now for the same delivery contract (though the Brent contract expires a week or so earlier).

I haven't done a lot of analysis of the WTI-Brent spread, but there are some 'changes' occurring in the US, eg a new (reversed) pipeline bringing Canadian crude into PADD2, and also the overwhelmingly full storage in the US relative to Europe. Normally it's the US that has all the spare storage, so when inventory is high, the timespreads are weaker in Europe than in the US. Not this time.

newmac · Post by **newmac** » 18 Apr 2006, 10:38

Sky has said twice this morning that the high oil prices are due to "seasonal demand" for "petrol".

There is clutching at straws and clutching at straws. The driving season isn't yet upon us. Isn't this like saying christmas trees are high in price in August due to season demand?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Apr 2006, 11:31

newmac wrote:Sky has said twice this morning that the high oil prices are due to "seasonal demand" for "petrol".

There is clutching at straws and clutching at straws. The driving season isn't yet upon us. Isn't this like saying christmas trees are high in price in August due to season demand?

But if people got worried about winter xmas tree supply in August, then the futures price would go up in august, and you could justifiably say it's due to expected seasonal demand...

I know what you mean though. News outlets will blame oil prices on anything they have to hand.

At the moment, most of us have a mantra of "Gasoline + Iran = Bullish Oil Complex"

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 18 Apr 2006, 15:21

So I presume my date was closest?

Not a great competition to win really, but I suppose the higher the prices go, then the more likelihood of the general public will becoming PO aware?

Something in me says that a lot of people just won't really "get it". I think a lot of folks will just get to the edge of the cliff and walk on over......

newmac · Post by **newmac** » 18 Apr 2006, 16:02

I not so sure. If enough of us bang on our keyboards at the same time I'm sure someone will hear.

DaBeeeenster · Post by **DaBeeeenster** » 18 Apr 2006, 23:54

dr_doom wrote:
DaBeeeenster wrote:
andyh wrote:surely now time to start the next competition? $80 the target?
Given the way things are developing with regards to Iran, I'd suggest sooner rather than later...
Don't be silly. When we have a confrontation with Iran it will remove uncertainty and bring prices down.

Steve Forbes says so:

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/04/17/for ... oil-prices

Ho boy

I read that blog tho - it's very good.

RogerCO · Post by **RogerCO** » 19 Apr 2006, 22:15

biffvernon wrote:You'd think this group would tend to be a bit gung-ho when it comes to predicting price rises yet 25 out of 26 of us underestimated the speed of change.

Well remember that this competition actually ran off the back of the previous $70 competition where we were ALL to early.
So much for the wisdom of crowds

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 20 Apr 2006, 11:34

DaBeeeenster wrote:
dr_doom wrote:
DaBeeeenster wrote: Given the way things are developing with regards to Iran, I'd suggest sooner rather than later...
Don't be silly. When we have a confrontation with Iran it will remove uncertainty and bring prices down.

Steve Forbes says so:

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/04/17/for ... oil-prices

Ho boy

I read that blog tho - it's very good.

It's a plausible theory. If the US bombs Iran and it turns out that the oil complex can cope with Iran being 'offline', then the removal of uncertainty will certainly be bearish for prices. On the other hand, if the oil complex *can't* cope, then we'll see price spikes and recession etc.

ianryder · Post by **ianryder** » 26 Feb 2007, 11:59

Is it time to resurrect?

Or have we all moved on from such frivolity??I?ll go for not this year anyway [unless Iran gets bombed and then I?ll pick that day and someone else can dig out the $80 thread and maybe start a $90 one!]