Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 28 Dec 2010, 00:16

clv101 wrote:Thanks for this Mike. It is a pretty clear that we are increasing risk of shortage late in the winter by the decisions being made today. I guess the people in charge would say that increasing the risk from vanishingly small to trivially small is worth the money being made today. Other's might say the risk of shortage is actually approaching 'likely'.

Best post of 2010 . . .

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 28 Dec 2010, 01:06

ah but now its getting warmer - thank goodness

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 28 Dec 2010, 01:09

maudibe wrote:ah but now its getting warmer - thank goodness

It will have to get positively equatorial to get us out of this one, I think.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 28 Dec 2010, 10:44

maudibe wrote:ah but now its getting warmer - thank goodness

Only for a few days apparently!

Post by **mikepepler** » 28 Dec 2010, 17:38

Rough (long range storage) output is now down to 20mcm/day now, so at least the withdrawals have slowed for a while, buying us a little time. Medium range stores are being topped up, but are still a long way short of 2009 levels.

More could be done though - Bacton IC is at zero - if it was flowing, we could be leaving the storage untouched today...

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 28 Dec 2010, 19:05

We could be reinjecting into both LRS and MRS. We have injected a bit into MRS.

That is the problem with the system. It is far better than 2005-6 when there was a real constraint on supply. However, storage is being handled in a risky manner.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 29 Dec 2010, 14:42

JohnB wrote:
maudibe wrote:ah but now its getting warmer - thank goodness
Only for a few days apparently!

We've got a westerly jet stream over us at the moment, which is bringing moist mild Atlantic air, but there's a northerly swath wafting our way which could bring more cold northerlies with it.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... tream.html

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 29 Dec 2010, 16:29

Hi Ken...thanks for the update there... best make the most of these tropical days then and cut some wood!

Post by **mikepepler** » 30 Dec 2010, 09:23

http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNe ... as/8346023

UK gas storage facilities were unable to re-stock significant amounts of gas over the Christmas holiday period, according to data from system operator National Grid.

The UK's main gas storage facility, Rough, continued to withdraw gas at close to maximum rates during the holidays.

On December 24 Rough held 20,004 GWh of gas. By Tuesday, the latest stock data showed it held 18,158 GWh. That fall, from 1.903 billion cubic meters to 1.727 Bcm, is the equivalent of 44 million cu m/d net withdrawals, pretty close to full rates.

Rough has enough gas to continue to flow at maximum rates for around a further 39 days, meaning that if run flat out, Rough storage would last until early to mid-February.

However, National Grid's real-time flow data indicates that since Tuesday, Rough flows have been below maximum, dropping as low as about 25 million cu m/d at times, coinciding with a milder turn in the weather.

At lower flow rates, Rough's gas will last for longer.

and http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-1 ... anged.html

Rough, the country’s largest gas-storage facility, held 18,158 gigawatt-hours of the fuel as of yesterday, 43 percent less than a year ago, according to National Grid Plc data.

Month-ahead gas has risen 81 percent this year as freezing weather depleted underground gas stores, making Britain more reliant on imports of liquefied natural gas to meet demand.

“The weather looks set to remain rather cold for much of this period, with overnight frosts quite likely,” the U.K. Met Office said of conditions from Jan. 12 through Jan. 26.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 30 Dec 2010, 09:29

So we are expecting LNG to make up the shortfall?

How realistic is this?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 31 Dec 2010, 14:53

I mentioned the gas storage situation to our emergency planning officer at work, who emailed an enquiry to Government Office North West Regional Resilience Team.

The reply was "gas supplies are regularly monitored by DECC and form part of reports sent through to ministers. There are no current concerns about gas supplies meeting demand but the situation is constantly under review."

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 31 Dec 2010, 15:12

Gov't Offices are being expunged forthwith, as part of the Quango Bonfire. So they probably don't particularly care right now if the Minister risks embarrassment from lack of foresight or good information.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 31 Dec 2010, 15:15

They will probably wait until about a week before there might be a problem before announcing it anyway.

My colleague says the main concerns for emergency planning at the moment are supplies of grit and a possible swine 'flu epidemic.

Post by **mikepepler** » 31 Dec 2010, 16:40

The gradual topping up of medium range storage has continued for the past few days, though it is still well below levels a year ago.

Long range storage is being drawn on less at present, down only 73GWh today, compared to ~450 on colder days.

However, it's also interesting to note that on 29th Dec, we *exported* about 10GWh of gas to the continent... a reason is given here:

The UK-Belgium gas interconnector (IUK) also reversed to export mode to the continent on Wednesday, a reflection of higher demand due to the return of the Swiss-Italian Transitgas pipeline last week, the analyst said.

The Transitgas pipeline, which brings north-west European gas to Italy, resumed full operations on December 24 after a five-month outage.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6BT36720101230

I wonder what that will mean for imports for the rest of the winter?

Anyway, it's going colder again soon, so we can start watching those storage levels drop again, now that the chance to refill the stores during milder weather has been largely wasted.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 31 Dec 2010, 17:27

Britain also received an liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker at its Teesside Gasport, the first in over a year, capping some gains.

Another eight vessels are expected over the next few weeks.

Will this LNG ease the storage situation a bit?