Current Oil Price

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 22 Dec 2010, 13:49

The spot price is not the average price. The $147 figure was only there briefly after a rapid run up so a great deal of the volume must actually have traded at a lot less than $147 in 2008.

We're in a different situation now as the price has been in the 80s for a long time, time enough for the various long term contracts for the bulk of traded oil to be a lot closer to the spot price.

Hence oil at the consumer end is priced almost as high as ever and better reflects geology rather than speculation.

Post by **clv101** » 22 Dec 2010, 14:14

DominicJ wrote:
TroubledTimes wrote:Our local garage is 129.9 for unleaded, and at the peak $147 price it only hit 128 locally.
Remember "peak" oil price of $147 was when Sterling was at $2
So the oil price peaked at £75 a barrel and petrol was £1.30 (crikey!)

Price now is $90, which is £60 a barrel so a price should be about £1.04 a litre, however we still have to account for tax increases (10p direct? More?) and summer/winter variance.

Not the right way to look at it.

It's better to consider a longer term average rather than spot prices. For example the average of the EIA's weekly time series (Weekly All Countries Spot Price FOB Weighted by Estimated Export Volume) for all of 2008 is $95.62, for 2009 it's $60.07 and for the 50 weeks of 2010 it's currently $76.97.

Oil in 2008 was 24% more than oil in 2010, but the pound bought around $1.8 (on average) in 2008, in 2010 it only buys $1.55. Ah, that's around a quarter less.

2010's average of $76.97 works out at about £50.
2008's average of $95.62 works out at about £53.

If we just look at the first seven months of 2008 (up to and including the price peak) we get an average of $109.77 and an exchange rate of around $1.95 = £1. That works out at £56 a barrel.

Ignoring tax changes etc, I'd expect fuel prices in the UK to be fairly similar this year to 2008.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 22 Dec 2010, 15:33

Like wot I said, but with numbers to make it more convincing, ta.

But that then leaves my speculative point that the price now reflects geology more than speculation? I suggest that is a significant difference between now and 2008.

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 22 Dec 2010, 16:01

But my general point, that a strong sterling countered oils highest period, remains correct yes?

Just with better numbers?

raspberry-blower · Post by **raspberry-blower** » 22 Dec 2010, 19:57

U.S oil inventory falls again:

Crude oil rose to the highest level in more than two years after government reports showed that U.S. supplies dropped and the country’s economy grew more than previously estimated in the third quarter.

Bloomberg trying to convince everyone that economic recovery is on track

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 22 Dec 2010, 22:07

Bloomberg trying to convince everyone that economic recovery is on track

Indeed, articles like this never ask the question "What does US economic growth look like with oil at $100-$150 a barrel?"

Negative I should think!

Such short memories!

caspian · Post by **caspian** » 23 Dec 2010, 09:38

Totally_Baffled wrote:Such short memories!

Not that short, it's been about 30 years since the last recession caused by rocketing oil prices.

peaceful_life · Post by **peaceful_life** » 26 Dec 2010, 20:58

caspian wrote:
Totally_Baffled wrote:Such short memories!
Not that short, it's been about 30 years since the last recession caused by rocketing oil prices.

Plus...this isn't a recession.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 31 Dec 2010, 21:10

Year's end and WTI rebounded close to $92.

Tapis spot got within a gnats whisker of $100 in the last couple of weeks but closed trading early at $98.

Happy 2011 - our central heating broke today. Wood burners rock!

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 01 Jan 2011, 06:15

It will be less than $50 a barrel by December 2011

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 01 Jan 2011, 09:54

ziggy12345 wrote:It will be less than $50 a barrel by December 2011

when shall we see $50 again?
in thunder, lightning, or depression?
when the quantitative easing's done
when peak oil has been, and gone.

Happy New Year all!

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 01 Jan 2011, 10:07

Ah, it's those sort of sisters you live with now, Tess.

Happy New Year.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 01 Jan 2011, 10:12

biffvernon wrote:Ah, it's those sort of sisters you live with now, Tess.

Happy New Year.

<cackles!>

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 03 Jan 2011, 11:24

First day of trading in 2011 and $100 oil is back

Tapis 101.19

(spot price)

Guest · Post by **Guest** » 03 Jan 2011, 16:17

December 7th 2010

TroubledTimes wrote:Our local garage is 129.9 for unleaded.

It's now £1.32 and the fella said it will go up again tonight because of the VAT.

VAT increase of 2.5% aside, (back of an envelope calculations), that means a 2.3% increase in one month, so by this time next month it should be £1.36, then this time next year, it should be £1.70 a litre. Of course this assumes the barrel price increases too and exchange rates, but it'll be interesting to keep tabs on it.