Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Dec 2010, 07:37

Thanks guys, glad you like it, it took me quite a while to extract all the data, make the graphs and read up on the emergency procedure.

@Adam - I think to hit stage 4, it would have to stay cold enough to run down storage to a low level, and then we'd need an accident or malfunction. Stage 1 is much more possible I think, and maybe stage 2. Have to review it in January...

@Andy - Yes, I was watching it on and off over the summer, and when I saw they'd stopped injecting into Rough before it was full, and didn't seem to bother injecting much at all into short range, it occurred to me that this was a bit risky...

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 26 Dec 2010, 13:16

A major blog entry on 24 December....? Most folks used to put up Xmas decorations then. Though that was in the good old days before the Festive Season was deemed to start sometime in September.

Mike, I have bookmarked and shall be watching your blog - and seeing how long before the mainstream media catch up and create panic and blamestorms.

If we have a run of colder winters generated by climate instability, plus decomissioning of nukes, then it's all the more likely that we are in for some turbulent and chilly times.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 26 Dec 2010, 14:47

I raised the issue in the HoC last week.

To me the fact that we export from storage (to the extent that we are exporting gas (other than to Ireland) when also taking it from scarce stores) is a nonsense.

Logically the government should be asking at some stage for people to turn their thermostats down as well.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 26 Dec 2010, 15:05

johnhemming wrote:I raised the issue in the HoC last week.

To me the fact that we export from storage (to the extent that we are exporting gas (other than to Ireland) when also taking it from scarce stores) is a nonsense.

Logically the government should be asking at some stage for people to turn their thermostats down as well.

Perhaps ministers will lead by example. Has anyone prepared a 'Line to Take' yet? How about

"We're all in this together".

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 26 Dec 2010, 15:08

johnhemming wrote: Logically the government should be asking at some stage for people to turn their thermostats down as well.

This would agree with the alert phases 1 and 2 cited by Mike - public appeals to use less gas.

I wonder when the spotlight will fall on households and local authorities with poor housing stock, from a national energy security point of view.

lurker · Post by **lurker** » 26 Dec 2010, 15:30

wow an MP reads powerswitch

Thats suprising

PS Have you got the kitten back yet? :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bi ... m-12006975

Poor beauty. Just hope she isn't caught out in this weather & someone has taken her in

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 26 Dec 2010, 15:45

lurker wrote:wow an MP reads powerswitch Thats suprising

Why? There are some sensible politicians out there, though that sounds a bit too plural.

There has been a Irish Green Party forum for some time and no-one in government has contributed a single thought there, so you should think yourself lucky to have John Hemming as a member of PS, whatever his politics. Members of government over here are quite clearly detached from reality.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 26 Dec 2010, 17:15

Sadly I am still short one kitten. She went a few months ago now.]

I have read powerswitch for some time. James Howard helps me with the all party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas.

http://www.appgopo.org.uk

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 26 Dec 2010, 18:56

Mike's blog post seems to be doing the rounds nicely having been unleashed into the twittersphere

Post by **mikepepler** » 26 Dec 2010, 19:16

Wow, really pleased to have had so many visits to that blog - 137 pageviews on that post so far. I'll really have to keep to my word and do an update in a couple of weeks!

I was looking at the national grid supply graphs today and yesterday, and noticed that output from Rough (long term storage) actually dropped a bit below maximum for a while. I guess this was reduced demand due to the holidays. It's back at full flow now though...

Anyway, this made me think - it's probably not profitable to import more gas and use storage less, even though this sets us up for problems further down the line. This is a shame, as there is clearly enough supply for 450mcm/day demand, but when the demand drops down below 400, its imports that we see fall, not storage withdrawals...

I guess this is the problem with privatising a piece of strategic infrastructure...

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 26 Dec 2010, 19:23

mikepepler wrote:Wow, really pleased to have had so many visits to that blog - 137 pageviews on that post so far. I'll really have to keep to my word and do an update in a couple of weeks!

I was looking at the national grid supply graphs today and yesterday, and noticed that output from Rough (long term storage) actually dropped a bit below maximum for a while. I guess this was reduced demand due to the holidays. It's back at full flow now though...

Anyway, this made me think - it's probably not profitable to import more gas and use storage less, even though this sets us up for problems further down the line. This is a shame, as there is clearly enough supply for 450mcm/day demand, but when the demand drops down below 400, its imports that we see fall, not storage withdrawals...

I guess this is the problem with privatising a piece of strategic infrastructure...

Are you saying that even if we run out of storage, we could still meet demand through imports, but at a higher price?

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 26 Dec 2010, 19:43

I'll admit to a single glass of festive el vino here in Chateau Moutarde, but I didn't understand it either.

Is it them blinking merchant bankers and commodity speculators up to no good again?

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 26 Dec 2010, 20:09

[quote="mikepepler"]Anyway, this made me think - it's probably not profitable to import more gas and use storage less, even though this sets us up for problems further down the line. This is a shame, as there is clearly enough supply for 450mcm/day demand, but when the demand drops down below 400, its imports that we see fall, not storage withdrawals...[/quote]

That is the point I have made. There is potential supply at quite a high level, but storage is used in preference. That is actually a market rules issue rather than a privatisation issue per se.

The challenge lies
a) When LRS is depleted taking out 45mcm/d of supply ... or
b) If something goes wrong. (eg Langeled last winter)

Storage should be more of a last resort than it is.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 26 Dec 2010, 20:19

johnhemming wrote: That is the point I have made. There is potential supply at quite a high level, but storage is used in preference. That is actually a market rules issue rather than a privatisation issue per se.

The challenge lies
a) When LRS is depleted taking out 45mcm/d of supply ... or
b) If something goes wrong. (eg Langeled last winter)

Storage should be more of a last resort than it is.

Just so that I can get this clear in my mind - if we run out of storage in February, are extra imports likely to be able to make up the 45mcm/day shortfall?

I'm just trying to get a feel for how likely actual shortages are, or not.

Post by **mikepepler** » 26 Dec 2010, 20:21

Andy Hunt wrote:
mikepepler wrote:Anyway, this made me think - it's probably not profitable to import more gas and use storage less, even though this sets us up for problems further down the line. This is a shame, as there is clearly enough supply for 450mcm/day demand, but when the demand drops down below 400, its imports that we see fall, not storage withdrawals...

I guess this is the problem with privatising a piece of strategic infrastructure...
Are you saying that even if we run out of storage, we could still meet demand through imports, but at a higher price?

Maybe, depends on demand. However, the point, as John Hemming said, is that storage should be seen as more of a last resort, especially this early in the winter. If we use it up now, imports *might* be sufficient later on, but they might not - so it would be better to maximise imports now and take the financial hit, leaving some gas in the stores for real emergencies.

I doubt the govt and industry is thinking like this (yet). Can you imagine the headlines... "Bills to rise as national grid imports expensive gas from Europe while there's spare gas in our own stores", and similar stupidity...