Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **clv101** » 20 Dec 2010, 11:26

It's not really news worthy is it? The Gas Balancing Alert is just National Grid's mechanism for... balancing the gas network. It should work.

lurker · Post by **lurker** » 20 Dec 2010, 11:30

They did mention it last year but i suppose that was because it hadn't happened before & was a new issue

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8440601.stm

On Monday the National Grid issued a gas balancing alert (GBA) for only the second time, asking power suppliers to use less gas as more was sourced overseas

madibe · Post by **madibe** » 20 Dec 2010, 16:33

My mate Baz (mid 70's) has just rung me - he and his wife can't get a delivery of bottled gas. They use LPG and live in a retirement (park) home, so bottled gas is their only source of heating apart from electricity. Baz is out tomorrow to buy a couple of electric heaters.

Apparently the supplier can't get supplies.

I have helpfully suggested that they both spend as much time in the pub as possible (as I did a couple of weeks agao whilst awaitiing my oil!)

But it is a concern. I really wonder how many owld folks are going to come a cropper here.

lurker · Post by **lurker** » 20 Dec 2010, 16:40

But it is a concern. I really wonder how many owld folks are going to come a cropper here.

2,500 apparently

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/artic ... 2-500.html

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 20 Dec 2010, 17:32

Electricity just reached 60.017GW. That tops last January 7th 59.297GW.

Not quite sure if this is a record?

re · Post by re » 20 Dec 2010, 17:45

"the current all-time record is 61.0 GW set on 10 December 2002,"

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 20 Dec 2010, 17:52

It's damn cold, I know that much. Going through logs like there's no tomorrow.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 20 Dec 2010, 18:25

Andy Hunt wrote:It's damn cold, I know that much. Going through logs like there's no tomorrow.

Are you sure there will be?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 20 Dec 2010, 18:46

Not entirely.

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Dec 2010, 19:01

re wrote:I just wanted to say a big thank you to clv101 and mikepepler for deciphering some of these statistics.

What I don't understand is, right now the supply reads like this:
Beach including Norway 234
LNG Imports 76
Interconnectors 62
Storage 60

Is the "Beach including Norway" going at full pelt or can it be increased as we start to get very low on Storage gas? Can LNG or Interconnectors be increased? Glad we installed a woodburner!

Thanks

About the above question, I don't know for sure, but looking over the past few weeks on the Data Item Explorer (which can be a bit fiddly to use), it seems that the total delivery from beach+Norway hasn't gone above about 246. That would indicate they are currently at close to the limit. The pipe from Norway can't flow above about 70mcm/day I think, so is actually quite a big chunk of this portion of the supply.

The same data for LNG shows a peak of 105mcm/day during Dec, so there's spare there. *However*, I assume this depends on how much LNG is actually in the holding tanks, as I saw the Dragon terminal go off for a few days all together.

Storage and Interconnectors are where the extra can come from. The former is OK for now, but not if we keep going through it at this rate for some weeks. The latter depends on European supplies and how much we're prepared to bid for them.

Thanks my take on it anyway!

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Dec 2010, 19:07

Andy Hunt wrote:It's damn cold, I know that much. Going through logs like there's no tomorrow.

We burned 3 sacks (that we use to move wood from store to house) between 3pm yesterday and 8am this morning, so about 30kg, or 0.06 m3. We were then out for the day (coppicing in the woods), so didn't use any more till about 4pm.

So at that rate 1 m3 should last a bit over two weeks. However, on days we're at home we burn more, and there'll be plenty more of them in Jan-Mar, as we'll be done with the coppicing.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 20 Dec 2010, 19:14

GBA for tomorrow (21st) declared as well.

Temp has risen all day. Now we are up to -5C

DominicJ · Post by **DominicJ** » 20 Dec 2010, 19:33

gave up on the central heating, its going like the dickens and doing bugger all.
Cant afford twenty quid a week for no gain.
Living room fires on and the doors stay shut.

Three more months of this and the gas bill will be, difficult.

Post by **mikepepler** » 21 Dec 2010, 16:42

Update on storage levels for 21 Dec:

Long: 21,446 GWh
Medium: 4,511 GWh
Short: 544 GWh

Total: 26,501 GWh
proportion full: 55%

Compare this to the same date in 2009:
Long: 33,355 GWh
Medium: 7,266 GWh
Short: 1,256 GWh

Total: 41,876 GWh
proportion full: 87%

Furthermore, supply from storage in the last day has totalled 665 GWh, or about 1.4% of maximum storage capacity. Granted, this has been very cold, but over the past week it's been at least 1% a day. So it looks like we have 50 days tops before the stores are empty, unless it warms up. Of course, we could run into trouble sooner, if individual short or medium stores run out, as then the rate at which supplies can be pumped into the grid starts to drop.

Worth keeping an eye on what happens, and perhaps praying for warm weather?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 21 Dec 2010, 17:09

It's increasingly looking like we may be stuffed.