Gas alert as demand and prices rise

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 19 Dec 2010, 22:03

Aurora wrote:
The Independent - 07/01/10

Energy: UK has enough gas for another 65 days

Demand for gas hit an all-time high yesterday during the UK's longest cold snap for more than 20 years. Demand rose to 453 million cubic metres (mcm), smashing the 449mcm record set in January 2003. And it is forecast to climb to 460mcm today.

The National Grid insisted that the unprecedented consumption levels will not leave Britain short. "We are absolutely not going to run out of gas," said a spokesman. "The UK is well supplied." The shadow Energy Secretary Greg Clark stoked energy security fears on Tuesday by claiming that Britain had only eight days of gas left in storage. But the National Grid dismissed the calculation as a "meaningless number" because it ignored both the amount of gas imported and that nearly half of UK demand is met by North Sea production.

Article continues ...

That was from near the top of this thread, last January. So tomorrows 461 would set a new record.
And January 7th also saw electricity demand topping 59GW. Last week Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday topped 57GW. Tomorrow could be interesting with more widely spread low temperatures across the UK.

What happened to the 10:10 campaign?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 19 Dec 2010, 22:06

biffvernon wrote: What happened to the 10:10 campaign?

Do you think they will accept data adjusted with 'degree days'?

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 19 Dec 2010, 23:07

I've been working on that. Anyone know if "Display" certificate software (from the EU) takes degree-days into account?

I'm afraid we've had the heating on all day bar a couple of hours in the morning. We've been at home all day, and it was set at 16 degC, but I still feel guilty.

MMM about yon gas cooker: gas flames produce a lot of water vapour so watch out for damp, if nowt else it might make you feel even colder when you have to turn the burners off.

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Dec 2010, 08:11

biffvernon wrote:
Aurora wrote:
The Independent - 07/01/10

Energy: UK has enough gas for another 65 days

Demand for gas hit an all-time high yesterday during the UK's longest cold snap for more than 20 years. Demand rose to 453 million cubic metres (mcm), smashing the 449mcm record set in January 2003. And it is forecast to climb to 460mcm today.

The National Grid insisted that the unprecedented consumption levels will not leave Britain short. "We are absolutely not going to run out of gas," said a spokesman. "The UK is well supplied." The shadow Energy Secretary Greg Clark stoked energy security fears on Tuesday by claiming that Britain had only eight days of gas left in storage. But the National Grid dismissed the calculation as a "meaningless number" because it ignored both the amount of gas imported and that nearly half of UK demand is met by North Sea production.

Article continues ...
That was from near the top of this thread, last January. So tomorrows 461 would set a new record.

Actually, we already broke that record: gas demand on 3rd Dec 2010 was 456.64mcm, but strangely it wasn't in the news - perhaps they're trying not to worry people? The GBA's not in the news yet (8am Mon)either...

Today's (20 Dec 2010) demand is now forecast at 465.8

Don't forget you can watch for blips in supply here, if you switch to hour or 24hr view:
http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/efd/ezgraph.htm

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 20 Dec 2010, 08:19

and electricity at http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electric ... mand60.htm

currently just topped 50GW at 8am

Post by **clv101** » 20 Dec 2010, 08:58

The gas situation is quite exceptional. We only have around 2500 Mcm left in storage. The previous low over the last few years for this time was 3250 Mcm. Last year we used 3320 Mcm of gas between now and the minimum level reached in mid March.

For there not the be a gas problem, we need the rest of the winter, from this point onwards, to be warm like 2005 or 2006. Another winter like the last two and there will be shortages. Statistically, there is a positive correlation between Dec temperatures an Jan/Feb, so it's more likely than not that the winter will remain on the cold side. Should be interesting.

re · Post by re » 20 Dec 2010, 09:18

I just wanted to say a big thank you to clv101 and mikepepler for deciphering some of these statistics.

What I don't understand is, right now the supply reads like this:
Beach including Norway 234
LNG Imports 76
Interconnectors 62
Storage 60

Is the "Beach including Norway" going at full pelt or can it be increased as we start to get very low on Storage gas? Can LNG or Interconnectors be increased? Glad we installed a woodburner!

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 20 Dec 2010, 09:20

So will there be heavy industry shutdown after Xmas and everyone being urged to wrap up, microwave meals and turn their thermostats down a notch or two?

What happened on the ground in the Ukraine and Eastern Europe when their gas stopped? Or was it actually kept going?

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 20 Dec 2010, 09:36

clv101 wrote:The gas situation is quite exceptional. We only have around 2500 Mcm left in storage. The previous low over the last few years for this time was 3250 Mcm. Last year we used 3320 Mcm of gas between now and the minimum level reached in mid March.

For there not the be a gas problem, we need the rest of the winter, from this point onwards, to be warm like 2005 or 2006. Another winter like the last two and there will be shortages. Statistically, there is a positive correlation between Dec temperatures an Jan/Feb, so it's more likely than not that the winter will remain on the cold side. Should be interesting.

Are you saying the resupply from the various sources won't keep up with depletion of the storage, to the point where we fall below safety minimums? I'm guessing the trigger points would be stacked like this - heavy industry shutdown, PR campaign to limit domestic use, switching of electricity generation to alternative methods, rolling blackouts, three day weeks with all businesses shut Mondays and Fridays, and then termination of domestic gas supply, by shutting off each domestic meter, to maintain pressure in the system.

Pepperman · Post by **Pepperman** » 20 Dec 2010, 09:51

'Beach' refers to the gas import terminals. You can see maximum flows for the last year in this document:

http://www.nationalgrid.com/NR/rdonlyre ... nt2009.pdf

If you click on System Entry Point Flow Data on the left hand side of the map you get actuals.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Dec 2010, 10:07

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:Are you saying the resupply from the various sources won't keep up with depletion of the storage, to the point where we fall below safety minimums? I'm guessing the trigger points would be stacked like this - heavy industry shutdown, PR campaign to limit domestic use, switching of electricity generation to alternative methods, rolling blackouts, three day weeks with all businesses shut Mondays and Fridays, and then termination of domestic gas supply, by shutting off each domestic meter, to maintain pressure in the system.

I don't expect it to get anything like as bad as that. Domestic supply is not in doubt, and I'd be amazed if the Government actually issued a public communication about reducing consumption due to supply issues.

It's industrial users including CCGT power stations that are likely to lose supply. It's not necessarily a bad thing for them as they'll have agreed a price at which to sell the gas back to the grid at, or maybe they elected to be on an interruptible contract in return for lower prices.

The system is designed to work under extreme conditions, I expect the worst case scenario is widespread shutdown for gas/energy intensive industry of a few weeks. A serious unexpected mechanical problem at a large power station or two, or an electricity or gas interconnector would make things more interesting though.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 20 Dec 2010, 10:24

Oh, that's OK then. I can turn the thermostat back up.

Post by **adam2** » 20 Dec 2010, 10:35

Coal will be burnt in preference to gas
Some gas turbine power plants can burn light oil instead of gas, and probably will do. Unforunatly if gas is the primary fuel at a power station, they often only have oil for a few days full load operation. Obtaining more would be problematic as such facilities are not normally served by rail or oil pipelines.
A large power plant burning oil would a road tanker of fuel every few minutes.
Also in many cases the gas turbines are optimised for burning gas and the manufactuerer will only warrent limited hours on oil.

Post by **clv101** » 20 Dec 2010, 10:53

adam2 wrote:A large power plant burning oil would a road tanker of fuel every few minutes.

That's an interesting thought.

There's around 1700 kWh in a barrel of oil, at ~60% efficiency the power station could generate 1000 kWh (or 1 MWh) from that barrel.

A 1 GW power station generates 1000 MWh per hour, so needs approximately 1000 barrels per hour.

A big road tanker holds around 30,000 litres (?) or 189 barrels. So yeah, a 1GW power station needs an oil tanker ever ~11 minutes. Safe to say oil is not delivered to larger oil fired power stations by road!

lurker · Post by **lurker** » 20 Dec 2010, 11:17

Interesting only place this is even mentioned on the net is here & a few blogs & other forums

Doesn't make the news. Maybe someone should email bbc see if they will cover it?