Oil Price

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 10 Apr 2006, 17:27

Nymex light sweet and Brent have both gone over $68 today

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 10 Apr 2006, 20:27

And we know why!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4896890.stm

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 10 Apr 2006, 21:06

It might be just because stuff happens. David Petch's analysis seems to ignore the world outside completely. (Don't ask me what any of it means.)
http://www.321energy.com/editorials/pet ... 41006.html

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 10 Apr 2006, 22:05

Never read so much bunkem! Can anybody make head or tail of the negative binomial theorem (

) in that article?

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 10 Apr 2006, 23:18

I think this is closer to the mark

Production totalling 500,000 barrels a day has been lost since February after attacks on oil facilities by rebel groups.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 10 Apr 2006, 23:46

Maybe we'll finally reach that elusive $70 this week. Mind you, every WTI contract from June 2006 to Jul 2008 is already over $70.... Just May to go.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 11 Apr 2006, 07:41

On October 6th 2005 I started a thread thus:

"Hear BP Chairman Lord Brown talking on Radio 4 PM Programme? He says 'medium term' oil price will be around $40 and 'long term' $20 - $30."

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=876

I wonder if Brown still maintains this view?

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 11 Apr 2006, 14:06

Latest price well over $69.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4898196.stm

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 12 Apr 2006, 15:38

Super-bullish EIA inventory numbers this week. Gasoline and Heating Oil leading crude higher; am expecting to see WTI try to beat that $70 number imminently...

Update: Large crude build seems to be keeping the WTI price flat despite the gasoline prices speeding upwards... If only Bush would open his mouth again, that would surely do it.

Post by **clv101** » 12 Apr 2006, 15:50

When's the last time Brent was above WTI? The price at the moment:

Brent Crude Oil $69.35
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil $69.05
(From here)

Why has this happened and what does it mean?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 12 Apr 2006, 16:34

Brent's only above WTI for the May contract. After that, WTI is in charge again. Really it's down to strong demand for Brent, all the Nigerian problems (since Nigerian crude is priced relative to Brent), and the overflowing crude inventory in the US forcing prompt WTI to go as low as possible to cut off the temptation to send more Brent crude to the US.

StephenCurran (Stef) · Post by **StephenCurran (Stef)** » 17 Apr 2006, 01:10

It's Easter monday 1 AM
Hong Kong, Aussie and NZ markets closed. Japan china, etc open
At time of writing IPE Brent @ 70.99
Gold over 600
and silver over 13

...It's weird seeing a 70 instead of 60

dudley · Post by **dudley** » 18 Apr 2006, 17:31

Now

In London, North Sea Brent crude oil jumped 74 cents to an all-time high of $72.20 a barrel

A senior OPEC delegate told Reuters on Tuesday the group considered current prices too high, and they had nothing to do with the realities of supply and demand.

"OPEC believes strongly that prices are too high and nobody wants to see these prices," the delegate told Reuters. "(But) it has nothing to do with fundamentals."

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/04 ... index.html

Is it me or things seem to be happening faster now with the price rises and the Iran situation? It's got me worried.

PowerSwitchJames · Post by **PowerSwitchJames** » 18 Apr 2006, 17:35

The psychological $70 barrier has been broken and there are no signs to suggest that it'll be coming down to any significant degree.

Ballard · Post by **Ballard** » 19 Apr 2006, 08:51

Guardian (who should know better), doing an laughable analysis of the Oil Price situation..

http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,1756548,00.html

I must say that I'm slightly suprised that no mention of the record breaking prices has been made on Mainstream UK TV.

Over a barrel: the chances and impact of low and high prices

$10 a barrel

Likelihood: It is unlikely but still possible that oil prices could plunge again once fears about Iran and Iraq settle down. There is more than enough oil in the world to easily meet all demand and just over six years ago oil was at this price.

Impact: Very low oil prices would bring cheap petrol and further encourage use of gas-guzzling 4x4 cars and oil for central heating. A return to cheap energy and petrol at 60p a litre could harm the environment, although it would force oil companies to cut back on further exploration.

$30 a barrel

Likelihood: It is quite possible that oil could return to this level, which was considered the norm just a few years ago. The Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries used this price as a target level. Many oil companies still use this level - or slightly lower - in deciding whether to proceed with any particular new development.

Impact: This level seems to nicely balance the world's need for reasonably priced energy. Oil at $30 a barrel does not raise global inflation or inhibit economic activity. Petrol prices would remain at reasonable levels.

$70 a barrel

Likelihood: It is here now but most analysts believe prices cannot stay this high. There could be spikes higher but the long-term trend should be down.

Impact: Oil companies make record profits at this level and are happy to spend more and more on exploration and production. But if prices stay this high, global economic growth will be hit, inflation will rise and users will seek alternative fuel sources. Petrol prices have already hit an average of 97p a litre, diverting consumers' cash from other spending.

$100 a barrel

Likelihood: Unlikely, although even conservative financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs have warned we could see $100 oil. A military strike on Iran could easily trigger this level, although a sudden spike would almost certainly be followed by a steep fall.

Impact: Governments would bring in taxes to dampen oil demand while industrial users would switch fuels. Inflation would rocket upwards and consumers would cut back on the rest of their domestic spending as petrol costs soared to more than ?1.30 a litre. $100 oil would boost energy efficiency and could speed a move to cleaner fuel. Gas prices tend to follow oil so renewables could be favoured over gas for electricity production.