Fed up! :(

wayne72 · Post by **wayne72** » 27 Mar 2006, 14:07

I just think anyone who thinks PO is going to be steady slide down a slope are mental for worrying about the problem. If you think its only going to require a slight change, then why worry??? Please whats the story or are you just natuarl worriers?

To be honest i've found PO a life wake-up call and instead of worrying about the future such as Pension, Retirement, Mortgages, Houses, Kids, etc. etc. Now I've begun to live my life again and enjoy what i've got and not worry about what I haven't got or worry about what I need in the future - no thats all gone and the stress with it.

Some people say we've wasted the most precious gift we've had, i'm begining to think the opposite. Look at what man as achieved in such a short time, hell so what if its going to kick us in the teeth when the Party's Over at least we've been to the Moon, reached the stars, discovered things about our humble beginings, had the best leisure times in history (if you were managed to be born in the right part of the World), etc. etc. etc.

Discovering PO has had some good effects on me, apart from enjoying my life more in general (as stated above), I am now getting myself fitte as i've cut down the use of my car, now I go running or cycling. I gave up a dull borring job (even though it paid me well) and have begun one that pays crap but is a good laugh.

Now to be honest when TSHTF all I can see is major problems. First of all things will be steady but it won't take long before all the connected roll on effects take hold i.e. recession, recession. You see as Oil gets more expensive so will Petrol, thus Food will rise in price, jobs will be lost as companies can't afford the high fuel bills, long distant commuters will find their travel fee's making their jobs worthless as they won't be earning enough, top all this off with how many people have ?100,000 plus mortgages and credit card bills of over ?10,000 plus the personal loans and you can see its a recipe for mass financial disaster! So unless we alter our current monetary system when TSHTF then could someone please tell me what will happen?

Also to top things off buisnesses which require lots of Aeroplane traveling will quickly go out of buisness. I can't see Aeorplanes running for long in a post peak world. Also whats going to happen to the bennefit system? Its all going to break down, how the hell can the government pay everyone (OK not everyone but a very lot of people) for doing nothing when jobs are just not there? The social care system will collapse, it will be hard for people who can't look aftewr themselves to survive in a post peak world because as things are getting more expensive and harde to get hold of such as food and water then how many capable people are going to give up to help incapable people? If you think Political Correctness and other Oil induced things such as equal rights/ human rights will continue in a post peak world, then I think your pretty much mistaken! Racial tension will be a major problem too.

So come on please tell me do you honestly believe that when we go on the downward slope of a post PO world we will only need to make small adjustments to our lifestyles?

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 27 Mar 2006, 19:33

So come on please tell me do you honestly believe that when we go on the downward slope of a post PO world we will only need to make small adjustments to our lifestyles?

I dont think anyone claimed (at least I didnt) that would only have to make "small" adjustments to our lifestyles.

If you compare where we are coming from , and where we are going to , I say we are in for enormous change!

But , I think where we will end up wont be the "mad max", mass startvation or war scenario some expect.

I think this is where there is some breakdown in the communication between those that are pessimistic and those that are more moderate about the consequences of PO.

Moderates are not claiming that it will be BAU with a bit of gardening thrown in , they are merely saying that our standard of living will drop, earnings will fall (or prices will rise) so that the basics will take a large(r) percentage of your income again (as it used to be).

Life will be harder, you will probably never retire.

Those caught with high negative equity will go bankrupt and default(and so will some banks with them). No doubt most of it will be written off(the money was loaned out of thin air anyway!)

Remember there is a lot of people that are not in debt, indeed 11 million homes (and thus 22 million people) are not under mortgage.

There will still be an economy, international trade will still be there, but in less volume and from countries nearer (inter EU?)

State benefits will be very basic - they may even be ration stamps.

Unemployment will be a problem, but the high supply of labour will force wages down. So who knows , we may actually start producing stuff ourselves again? Cheap labour in some cases may actually be more cost effective than machines? People will always need food/clothing etc, why cant we make these ourselves?

Why cant we produce and transport goods via train around Europe?

I think you also have to bare in mind the relationship between FF producers and consumers.

If the west crashes, who will buy there raw materials? Oil has no value if:

a) You cannot refine it into useful products(remember a lot the worlds refining capacity is in the end user nations rather than the oil producing nations - hence petrol shortages in some OPEC nations!),

b) You have no customers - because they're all bankrupt!

c) Who will you buy your food, manafactured goods, medicines, tools, machinery, military hardware etc etc from? Oil producers may end up with all the money , but who are they spending it with???

wayne72 · Post by **wayne72** » 27 Mar 2006, 22:18

I do find some people do talk PO down as if it will be a steady drop. I still can't buy in to how our current monetery system can work post peak. To me it seems impossible because of the growth its seen. Even if 11 million people own their houses then i'm sure 2 million plus don't and will find it hard if not impossible to keep up with rising interests rates on the massive mortgage figures, what happens to them do they all get thrown on to the street?

Because of how long we've been Oil dependant now and how much we've progressed I believe is going to be the main reason why its going to be extremely tough post peak. I now have changed my mind about a big die-off occuring within 12 months of post peak. Infact I even believe we're going to regain strong community spirit last known in the 1970's. But I believe there's going to be lots of violence and $hit first whilst the masses come to terms with little Joey not having the opportunity to become the next Beckham or little sarah aint going to be going to college and big dave losing his ?300,000 from property devoloping because of a bank going bankrupt and Mr. and Mrs. Smith not being able to feed their 10 kids on the food voucher bennefits and then think about Mr. and Mrs. Miser who scrapped and scraped so as to get enough money together to retire early they are gonna be real pi$$ed when they realise their money could become worthless, etc. etc.

But until this post peak scenario bites our ar$e$ i've decided i'm going to do all the things I promissed myself years ago but got lost along the way, mainly by trying to save for the future. Yes this involves alot of travelling and why not, we're not going to convince the masses about what we face, they don't care, they think we're quacks! Then when the $hit hits the fan i'll just settle down in to the new world. I feel I don't need to plan, this would just make me a target for attack, I think my village and town have a good chance of converting when the time comes.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 28 Mar 2006, 10:43

wayne72 wrote:I do find some people do talk PO down as if it will be a steady drop. I still can't buy in to how our current monetery system can work post peak. To me it seems impossible because of the growth its seen. Even if 11 million people own their houses then i'm sure 2 million plus don't and will find it hard if not impossible to keep up with rising interests rates on the massive mortgage figures, what happens to them do they all get thrown on to the street?

To the second point I would say people will all end up moving in with each other if things go that bad (family mainly but also maybe friends?).

In such a scenario there would literally be millions of houses empty , all completely worthless. Would it be unthinkable that the government does a deal with the banks and takes these into public ownership (like council house stock?). Wouldn't put it past them!

Alternatively , higher inflation could reduce peoples debt? I remember my dad bought his house for £18,000 in 1979. Becasue of the high inflation upto the mid 1980's his mortgage ended up the equivelant of around 8 months salary!

There is so many outcomes - who knows what will happen? There will be winners and losers. Of course there will more of the latter!

Because of how long we've been Oil dependant now and how much we've progressed I believe is going to be the main reason why its going to be extremely tough post peak. I now have changed my mind about a big die-off occuring within 12 months of post peak. Infact I even believe we're going to regain strong community spirit last known in the 1970's. But I believe there's going to be lots of violence and $hit first whilst the masses come to terms with little Joey not having the opportunity to become the next Beckham or little sarah aint going to be going to college and big dave losing his ?300,000 from property devoloping because of a bank going bankrupt and Mr. and Mrs. Smith not being able to feed their 10 kids on the food voucher bennefits and then think about Mr. and Mrs. Miser who scrapped and scraped so as to get enough money together to retire early they are gonna be real pi$$ed when they realise their money could become worthless, etc. etc.

Agreed. Im certain there will be riots , demonstrations, social unrest , rising crime etc etc , I just think we wont lose it completely.

But until this post peak scenario bites our ar$e$ i've decided i'm going to do all the things I promissed myself years ago but got lost along the way, mainly by trying to save for the future. Yes this involves alot of travelling and why not, we're not going to convince the masses about what we face, they don't care, they think we're quacks! Then when the $hit hits the fan i'll just settle down in to the new world. I feel I don't need to plan, this would just make me a target for attack, I think my village and town have a good chance of converting when the time comes.

This is probably a good idea!

wayne72 · Post by **wayne72** » 28 Mar 2006, 10:55

Totally_Baffled wrote:
Agreed. Im certain there will be riots , demonstrations, social unrest , rising crime etc etc , I just think we wont lose it completely.

But until this post peak scenario bites our ar$e$ i've decided i'm going to do all the things I promissed myself years ago but got lost along the way, mainly by trying to save for the future. Yes this involves alot of travelling and why not, we're not going to convince the masses about what we face, they don't care, they think we're quacks! Then when the $hit hits the fan i'll just settle down in to the new world. I feel I don't need to plan, this would just make me a target for attack, I think my village and town have a good chance of converting when the time comes.
This is probably a good idea!

I agree we won't lose it completely but I think we will initially as the sleepers finally wake up and want to know why? But I suppose the rest of us early peakers can shout back at them "We Told You So!"

I think a good idea is to make one of those lists 99 things to do before: Only instead of before your 30, 40 or die it should be before Peak Oil. That could make an interesting new thread

Incidently i'm off to excess city next month as part of my new life of enjoying whats left of the goodlife. I've also dropped 10lbs so far in body weight by cutting take-away junk food out and started walking, running, cycling and weight lifting. I'm now feeling loads fitter. I've decided now i've gotten over crazy phases of PO awareness that i'm going to use the time whats left to really enjoy my life. I've even been back intouch with old friends. I tell you its great, my life is better now than its been since I was 18 years old and the world was my oyester. You could say i've seen the light

.

GD · Post by GD » 28 Mar 2006, 11:34

we're not going to convince the masses about what we face, they don't care, they think we're quacks!

Mate, they haven't heard of PO (let alone not care or think we're quacks).

I feel I don't need to plan, this would just make me a target for attack

I'm not sure having a plan will make you a target. If you at least talk about the issues to those around you, once they've realised you've been right all along they'll want to know more.

It's not fun when your business is haemorraging cash and jobs, but the key thing is it's not the end of the world, life goes on. I suppose you must have read Dmitry Orlov's "Post soviet lessons..." ? The point I think he makes there is that society re-organises itself. Sure, the state of Russia today is appalling, but that doesn't have to be our destiny. The current paradigm has a lot of pain in store (agree with TB comments above also), but it's not the only way of doing things. The key lies in greater awareness of economics. It seems almost paradoxical to me how simple it is, and yet most people (economists included) don't understand.

Poverty is no more necessary than slavery.

People do not need capital to be able to do work and create wealth for themselves.

What will people do when the economy goes t*ts up? There will be plenty of work that needs doing making food (the Cuban example shows 27% of workforce returned to agriculture), retrofitting housing, medicine, health and social care, education, etc, etc. We wonder why we have failing systems today (NHS, pensions etc). We have, within our power, the means to address these issues.

The question is whether enough people will want to make it happen. Think about the Mr & Mrs Smiths and Misers, why would they not want to, if they knew they had the choice?

wayne72 · Post by **wayne72** » 28 Mar 2006, 17:21

GD wrote:
The question is whether enough people will want to make it happen. Think about the Mr & Mrs Smiths and Misers, why would they not want to, if they knew they had the choice?

Thats the trouble, you tell them and they pass you off as a nut, or if they listen they just say well it won't happen in my lifetime. And I got fed up about hearing "well we'll just use bikes" or "there's loads of oil its just greedy oil companies"

GD · Post by GD » 28 Mar 2006, 17:41

Sure - at the moment.

Given a few years, they'll want you to impart everything you know.

It's frustrating at the moment. e.g. - my dad works in an energy intensive plant, as it stands they must intermittently cut power to "sell it back" to the grid whenever there's a cold snap. In a few years time, the nuke plant that supplies it will be coming off line. It's no secret that should there be no replacement (and soon!) the place will have to shut. This is a major employer in a small town.

I showed him End of Suburbia. His comment - "Well, the Americans have had it too easy for too long now".

So bl**dy frustrating you won't believe. But I learn to live with it, and keep planting the seeds (e.g. "Remember that oil documentary I showed you? Newsnight did a special on that topic last night..."), and meanwhile read up on the solutions.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 28 Mar 2006, 17:44

wayne72 wrote: Thats the trouble, you tell them and they pass you off as a nut, or if they listen they just say well it won't happen in my lifetime. And I got fed up about hearing "well we'll just use bikes" or "there's loads of oil its just greedy oil companies"

How about setting up a community with other nuts? Proof of concept etc. Even Jesus couldn't convince everyone. He set a pretty good example though.

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 28 Mar 2006, 19:27

GD wrote: In a few years time, the nuke plant that supplies it will be coming off line. It's no secret that should there be no replacement (and soon!) the place will have to shut. This is a major employer in a small town.

Despite the unresolved waste disposal problem, I'm fairly confident this will happen. The most up-to-date designs are inherrently safer than those about to be decommissioned which were designed back in the 50's and 60's . They are also simpler and can be built quite quickly. The 'state of the art' Westinghouse reactor can be built in 3 years from first concrete poured on site to first fuel rod loaded into the core.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Mar 2006, 19:38

My thinking on this has changed recently... I now think all the AGRs will get extensions past 2020 (they are still pretty young and don't have the inherent problems Magnox has) and the Magnox fleet aren't really generating much anyway so their decommission won't be missed too much.

Nuclear Britain

The yellow bar was due to be the first AGR to be decommissioned in 2008 but it's been exteded to 2018. I expect Hinkley Point B, Hunterston B, Hartlepool and Heysham 1 to all get extensions within the next couple of years.

Buys us a bit of time I guess but it means that just when we've completely run out of gas we'll rapidly lose some 10GW in the 2025-30 period. Got to be better than dealing with it all in one go.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 28 Mar 2006, 19:48

skeptik wrote:The 'state of the art' Westinghouse reactor can be built in 3 years from first concrete poured on site to first fuel rod loaded into the core.

3 years? Who's kidding who?

And now we learn that it's going to Nat Grid Transco take almost a decade just to run a 400kv line across Scotland so we can make use of the wind.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 28 Mar 2006, 20:20

Totally Baffled

We all have bad hair days, or so my partner tells me.

Cheer up! The furure sure is going to be much more
stimulating and denanding than the present.

Roger

skeptik · Post by **skeptik** » 28 Mar 2006, 20:49

biffvernon wrote:
skeptik wrote:The 'state of the art' Westinghouse reactor can be built in 3 years from first concrete poured on site to first fuel rod loaded into the core.
3 years? Who's kidding who?

As you're obviously dubious, I suggest you write some stiff late delivery penalty clauses into the contract when you order yours.

the AP1000 utilizes modularization technique for construction, which allows many construction activities to proceed in parallel. This technique reduces the plant construction calendar time, which saves the IDC (Interest During Construction) cost and reduces the risks associated with plant financing. The AP1000 has a site construction schedule of 36 months from first concrete to fuel loading.

http://www.ap1000.westinghousenuclear.com

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 28 Mar 2006, 22:16

What, as in the Wembly stadium?

Fundemental law of all building projects = over time and over budget (increased by order of magnitude if the word 'nuclear' is included in brief).