Bring it on!

[MacG]

Concluding comments on the 100 000 year plots of oil

It is clear therefore, that our present position on the nearly vertical front slopes on these curvves is a precarious one, and that the events we are witnessing and experiencing, far from being "normal", are among the most abnormal and anomalous in the history of the world. Yet we cannot turn back; neither can we consolidate our gains and remain where we are. In fact, we have no choice but to proceed into a future which we may be assured will differ markedly from anything we have experienced thus far.

Among the inevitable characteristics of this future will be the progressive exhaustion of the mineral fuels, and the accompanying transfer of the material elements of the earth from naturally occuring deposits of high concentration to states of low concentration dissemination. Yet despite this, it will still be physically possible to stabilize the human population at some reasonable figure, and by means of the energy from sunshine alone to utilize low grade concentrations of materials and still maintain a high-energy industrial civilization indefinitely.

Whether this possibility shall be realized, or whether we shall continue as at present until a succession of crises develop -overpopulation, exhaustion of resources and eventual decline- depends largely upon whether a serious cultural lag can be overcome. In view of the rapidity with which the transition to our present state has occurred it is not surprising that such a cultural lag should exist, and that we should continue to react to the fundamentally simple physical, chemical and biological needs of our social complex with the sacred-cow behaviour patterns of our agrarian and prescientific past. However, it is upon our ability to eliminate this lag and evolve a culture more nearly in conformity with the limitations imposed upon us by the basic properties of matter and energy that the future of our civilization largely depends.

Boy, was he sharp?! I cannot find any better general description today.

[skeptik]

Boy, was he sharp?! I cannot find any better general description today.

Excellent exposition of the problem, as you say very sharp, very clear thinking.

In view of the rapidity with which the transition to our present state has occurred it is not surprising that such a cultural lag should exist, and that we should continue to react to the fundamentally simple physical, chemical and biological needs of our social complex with the sacred-cow behaviour patterns of our agrarian and prescientific past.However, it is upon our ability to eliminate this lag and evolve a culture more nearly in conformity with the limitations imposed upon us by the basic properties of matter and energy that the future of our civilization largely depends.

Spot on. Or, to summarise, as somebody over at 'The Oil Drum' signs off - "Are humans more intelligent than yeast?"

[skeptik]

This waiting, worrying, postulating, planning, striving, learning is getting me down. Can we just be done with it and have Peak now before we all start suffering from mental health problems?

Ok... take this on board an see how it feels . It is entirely possible that not much may have happened, and that we might all still be discussing this issue much as we are now in 10 years time

Are you cool with that or does it upset you? Im cool with that as I have really no idea when peak oil will happen or what form it's going to take.

If you cant cope with that I suggest you take a break. You've boned up on the subject and made what provision you can in your private life to offset the obviously predictable effects, but now you are just worrying needlessly.

I suggest you take a sabbatical. Take a year off. Ignore the subject completely for a year and concentrate on ordinary life. If you are a pathological worrier find something else to worry about. If the subject crops up in a newspaper dont read it. On the TV, switch channels. Stop reading about it online. Drop out of all online forums. If you start to think about it use 'thought stopping' techniques (Google 'Thought Stopping' if you don't know what Im talking about - practical techniques to break obsessive thought patterns)

Give it a year, then come back - refreshed and clear headed.

obsessing yourself into a possible nervous breakdown doesnt help anybody.[/i]

[MacG]

Or, to summarise, as somebody over at 'The Oil Drum' signs off - "Are humans more intelligent than yeast?"

Oh yes! Much more intelligent! We manage to find and exhaust energy sources not accessible to yeast. Our overshot is much more magnificent than what a colony of yeast would ever come close to.

I think that it is people on the margins who set the agenda for all of us. If a minority go for "burn everything", they will have a temporary advantage over the careful and conservative ones, and they will set the agenda for everyone.

As long as there is fossile fuel available, it is enough if 1% of the population start to exploit it, and they will have a tremendeous advantage over everybody else, effectively forcing everybody else to exploit the fossile energy.

On the same note, if human populations actually are in overshot, those with the lowest tresholds against cannibalism will have an advantage over everybody else during the correction phase, and after the correction phase those who can be most energy efficient will have the advantage.

[newmac]

Thanks for your concern Skeptik but it was really only a fun Friday post. I consider myself to be quite on the 5th stage of Peak Oil awareness - i.e. that of enlightenment. The days of denial, clutching at straws, fear and panic, despair are behind me......at least for now.