Bring it on!
Moderator: Peak Moderation
I am with Mike on this one, why the hell do you want to keep this system going? Don't you see what we are doing to this planet. The human race is not going to turn away from fossil fuels, for the simple reason it costs too much money. The only way the planet can be saved is if peak oil hits us hard and fast. I am not a doomer, I am secretly looking forward to it. This will be the biggest adventure of our lives and I am glad that I am going to be a part of it. Bring it on!
"Courage is not the absence of fear, but the conquest of it"
While I've tried to be patient, ever since Reagan ripped the solar panels off the White House, I've come to learn that patience is the art of enjoying, not waiting.
Thus I did actually enjoy Katrina wiping out New Orleans, to the extent that it has turned America from denial of GW to 75% discontent with US inaction on the issue.
Given the climate-genocide unfolding tonight in East Africa, something between 1,300 & 7,900 Americans dead is a tiny price to pay for that change in US opinion.
[6,600 are missing, but nobody seems to give a damn].
Similarly, making a good job of a sheepskin, good enough that children can play on it, gives me a real satisfaction that is not diminished by the threats we face.
But best of all is the joy of innovative campaigning for effective responses at the international level -
as when GCI blocked the UNFCCC's adoption of a ?2m UK report on GW costs, by giving all delegates a critique of its (small print) accountancy of human life -
that of 1 American was assumed to be worth that of 15 Bangladeshis . . .
Maybe if global recession doesn't start for the next few years we might achieve more than we have in the last thirty,
but a critical factor of the recessions I've seen is that as soon as they bite then innovative spending just dries up.
Unless we elect a very different quality of politics and raise and focus popular demand, this seems quite likely to recur.
So, rather than hoping PO will hold off for a few years, it is my hope that people will face the changes we need to make now,
and will actually commit their lives to helping bring them about.
Which means, Pip, that perhaps you could do worse than to relinquish the idea of a C20 stage career in favour of one for the C21,
perhaps in a travelling company giving people the plays they need to consider ?
And Tess, on my word of honour, establishing good hot showers will be a matter of high priority !
regards,
Bill
Thus I did actually enjoy Katrina wiping out New Orleans, to the extent that it has turned America from denial of GW to 75% discontent with US inaction on the issue.
Given the climate-genocide unfolding tonight in East Africa, something between 1,300 & 7,900 Americans dead is a tiny price to pay for that change in US opinion.
[6,600 are missing, but nobody seems to give a damn].
Similarly, making a good job of a sheepskin, good enough that children can play on it, gives me a real satisfaction that is not diminished by the threats we face.
But best of all is the joy of innovative campaigning for effective responses at the international level -
as when GCI blocked the UNFCCC's adoption of a ?2m UK report on GW costs, by giving all delegates a critique of its (small print) accountancy of human life -
that of 1 American was assumed to be worth that of 15 Bangladeshis . . .
Maybe if global recession doesn't start for the next few years we might achieve more than we have in the last thirty,
but a critical factor of the recessions I've seen is that as soon as they bite then innovative spending just dries up.
Unless we elect a very different quality of politics and raise and focus popular demand, this seems quite likely to recur.
So, rather than hoping PO will hold off for a few years, it is my hope that people will face the changes we need to make now,
and will actually commit their lives to helping bring them about.
Which means, Pip, that perhaps you could do worse than to relinquish the idea of a C20 stage career in favour of one for the C21,
perhaps in a travelling company giving people the plays they need to consider ?
And Tess, on my word of honour, establishing good hot showers will be a matter of high priority !
regards,
Bill
What would happen in the event of near term peak and rapid decline would be infinitely worse for the planet than a more distant peak, or as I think more likely a decade long 'bumpy plateau' of yo-yoing recession and recovery, followed by a gradual decline. What we need more than anything is time to get the word out, get everybody thinking in the right direction as regards finite resources, ramp up renewables, conservation and energy efficiency technologies.Koba wrote:I am with Mike on this one, why the hell do you want to keep this system going? Don't you see what we are doing to this planet. The human race is not going to turn away from fossil fuels, for the simple reason it costs too much money. The only way the planet can be saved is if peak oil hits us hard and fast. I am not a doomer, I am secretly looking forward to it. This will be the biggest adventure of our lives and I am glad that I am going to be a part of it. Bring it on!
Its only taken one winter of high natural gas prices in the USA for the makers of wood burning stoves in North America to be unable to keep up with demand. Multiply that up by an order of magnitude and you can imagine the environmental effects of a rapid collapse in global oil output. Environmentally friendly it is not!
If you want a taste of 'worst case scenario' (the worst case scenario that I consider possible, but unlikely, is a sudden global collapse into a 9% per annum decline, as per the North Sea since 1999) try not eating anything for a couple of weeks and see how you enjoy it.
If its adventure thats attracting you I suggest you join the Territorial Army. Judging by the TV commercials they seem to have lots of adventures. With any luck you might end up in Iraq or even if really lucky, Iran. That should more than enough excitement for anybody, and as is possible in the case of a sharp near term Hubbert peak and rapid decline, you'll get to see lots of bodies.
I think that our general energy depletion problems (including Peak Oil) will manifest as economic pain long before we see actual shortages.
As all energy prices go up, people will lose their jobs. We are already seeing hospitals sack staff because they have to cut costs, these costs are in part caused by the increased electricity and gas prices. I guess this will happen across the board, schools, the police, in fact all sector of our public services will find it increasingly difficult to balance the books year on year. The easiest way to address these increased costs is to reduce your wage bill, (not institute expensive conservation measures). This of course applies equally to the private sector.
I imagine that the effects of peak oil will be just the same, increasing unemployment, increasing poverty, but actual shortages may be quite well hidden.
So ?bring it on?, if you mean mass unemployment and poverty, personally I would rather we all had some time to get out of debt and change our mindsets to expect a more frugal lifestyle akin to our grandparents.
As all energy prices go up, people will lose their jobs. We are already seeing hospitals sack staff because they have to cut costs, these costs are in part caused by the increased electricity and gas prices. I guess this will happen across the board, schools, the police, in fact all sector of our public services will find it increasingly difficult to balance the books year on year. The easiest way to address these increased costs is to reduce your wage bill, (not institute expensive conservation measures). This of course applies equally to the private sector.
I imagine that the effects of peak oil will be just the same, increasing unemployment, increasing poverty, but actual shortages may be quite well hidden.
So ?bring it on?, if you mean mass unemployment and poverty, personally I would rather we all had some time to get out of debt and change our mindsets to expect a more frugal lifestyle akin to our grandparents.
Re: Bring it on!
No Chris - you can't change when it's going to occur. You can't directly influence how the masses are going to respond to it either. All that you can change is your perception on the issue. Just feel good in yourself that you've been chosen by fate to gain awareness to prepare yourself and spread the word, doing what you comfortably can without destroying yourself in the process.newmac wrote:This waiting, worrying, postulating, planning, striving, learning is getting me down. Can we just be done with it and have Peak now before we all start suffering from mental health problems?
I would suggest, when you get the opportunity, to sit down and watch the film "Dead Poet's Society", and let the underlying message of the film sink in. Nothing is "good", nothing is "bad". Everything is both "good and bad", simultaneously, according to the point of view taken.
Olduvai Theory (Updated) (Reviewed)
Easter Island - a warning from history : http://dieoff.org/page145.htm
Easter Island - a warning from history : http://dieoff.org/page145.htm
I don't believe we'll get rapid decline and therefore don't think a near-term peak is a problem. Bring it on - that'll get the word out pretty quickly.skeptik wrote:What would happen in the event of near term peak and rapid decline would be infinitely worse for the planet than a more distant peak, or as I think more likely a decade long 'bumpy plateau' of yo-yoing recession and recovery, followed by a gradual decline. What we need more than anything is time to get the word out, get everybody thinking in the right direction as regards finite resources, ramp up renewables, conservation and energy efficiency technologies.
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
Skeptik, you sound like you are scared of change? What?s to be scared of, the effect of peak oil could be the making of human civilization, it might be the best thing that could ever happen to us, or it might be the worst we just don?t know. All I know is that it is going to happen whether we like it or not so lets have a bit of positive thinking for once instead of the usual peak oil will be bad for us.
I just want the effects of peak oil to hit us sooner rather than later. If I have to do anymore planning I am going to go mad. Everyone is going to have to change their plans due to unforeseen circumstances, so thinking that you need more time is just plain stupid, lets just get going and see what happens.
On the subject of getting the word out, no matter what we do a majority of people will never believe us until they are faced with the reality of the problem on a personal level. Let?s face it the people on this website and others like it must have realized a long time ago that something was not right in the world. We are some of the very few people in this country that have the ability to look below the surface. Take heart in that and realize that most people want to live in denial and ignorant bliss, it makes them happy... and who are we to ruin their fantasy. We on the other hand should be enjoying the last days of excess because we know what?s coming.
Change is a good thing and it must be embraced when the time comes, just stop making it out that it is going to be completely horrendous. Just think of the positive side of peak oil and work towards that.
And by the way Skeptik, maybe you should get off your computer and do something constructive, maybe that?s why you cannot see anything positive about peak oil. 694 posts on this forum, no wonder you are so scared, when was the last time you went outside? It?s not that scary, I promise you! Maybe I might see you in Iran, when we all get drafted!
And Tess don't worry people have been taking hot baths and showers for thousands of years I doubt peak oil will change that.
I just want the effects of peak oil to hit us sooner rather than later. If I have to do anymore planning I am going to go mad. Everyone is going to have to change their plans due to unforeseen circumstances, so thinking that you need more time is just plain stupid, lets just get going and see what happens.
On the subject of getting the word out, no matter what we do a majority of people will never believe us until they are faced with the reality of the problem on a personal level. Let?s face it the people on this website and others like it must have realized a long time ago that something was not right in the world. We are some of the very few people in this country that have the ability to look below the surface. Take heart in that and realize that most people want to live in denial and ignorant bliss, it makes them happy... and who are we to ruin their fantasy. We on the other hand should be enjoying the last days of excess because we know what?s coming.
Change is a good thing and it must be embraced when the time comes, just stop making it out that it is going to be completely horrendous. Just think of the positive side of peak oil and work towards that.
And by the way Skeptik, maybe you should get off your computer and do something constructive, maybe that?s why you cannot see anything positive about peak oil. 694 posts on this forum, no wonder you are so scared, when was the last time you went outside? It?s not that scary, I promise you! Maybe I might see you in Iran, when we all get drafted!
And Tess don't worry people have been taking hot baths and showers for thousands of years I doubt peak oil will change that.
"Courage is not the absence of fear, but the conquest of it"
Skeptik, go and do something contructive, here is a website where you can do something practical:
www.uksurvivalschool.co.uk
You never know you might not be so scared of change when you realise just how easy it is to survive away from your computer.
And remember "Fortes fortuna adiuvat"
www.uksurvivalschool.co.uk
You never know you might not be so scared of change when you realise just how easy it is to survive away from your computer.
And remember "Fortes fortuna adiuvat"
"Courage is not the absence of fear, but the conquest of it"
Koba, I don't mean to be offensive, but you need to give some deeper thought to the implications of PO. 
It is normal to be concerned about change - animals, of which we are one species, like routine.
Surely you have got to admit it is not easy to put a positive spin on PO and what it will do society and civilisation.
We can never have enough time to plan for the changes PO and its decline will bring about - everything the West now has depends to a greater or lesser degree on cheap energy - specifically oil and gas.
You say you want the effects of PO to hit us as soon rather than later. I think you will find that most people will not agree with that sentiment. Our lives will change fundamentally. Our childrens lives will be very different to the lives most of us have been lucky enough to have had. Their childrens lives will be different again.
We will have hardships to come - we may lose the ability to have widespread anti-biotics - children will die of ear infections as they used to 100 years ago. We are likely to go hungry at some point in the future - have you ever gone a day or two without food? I haven't and I don't want to either. We will lose many of the benefits that we have been able to develop over the last couple of hundred years.
I agree that we do have to move towards a sustainable way of life for our species, but I would like this to take place over three, four or five decades of sensible change to the way we do things. I don't think we will have this kind of controlled change with PO and its decline.
PO is not going to be nice for anybody, will be terminal for many and pretty unpleasent for the rest of us.
I could go on and on. I really do think you need to be careful what you wish for.
It is normal to be concerned about change - animals, of which we are one species, like routine.
Surely you have got to admit it is not easy to put a positive spin on PO and what it will do society and civilisation.
We can never have enough time to plan for the changes PO and its decline will bring about - everything the West now has depends to a greater or lesser degree on cheap energy - specifically oil and gas.
You say you want the effects of PO to hit us as soon rather than later. I think you will find that most people will not agree with that sentiment. Our lives will change fundamentally. Our childrens lives will be very different to the lives most of us have been lucky enough to have had. Their childrens lives will be different again.
We will have hardships to come - we may lose the ability to have widespread anti-biotics - children will die of ear infections as they used to 100 years ago. We are likely to go hungry at some point in the future - have you ever gone a day or two without food? I haven't and I don't want to either. We will lose many of the benefits that we have been able to develop over the last couple of hundred years.
I agree that we do have to move towards a sustainable way of life for our species, but I would like this to take place over three, four or five decades of sensible change to the way we do things. I don't think we will have this kind of controlled change with PO and its decline.
PO is not going to be nice for anybody, will be terminal for many and pretty unpleasent for the rest of us.
I could go on and on. I really do think you need to be careful what you wish for.
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Somebody said 5 years please, that suits me fine. But seriously as I think Skeptic wrote it will be a long drawn out affair, Once you get $150-$200 dollar oil, then you will get a derivitives meltdown which will cause some form of Hyperinflation or deflation, the 30 bond will be so much toilet paper. Economic growth may fall faster then oil production so there could be 5 years when the jury is still out on peak oil, it could easily be argued that it was demand that was unsustainable (aka the US trade deficit) and on the back of that the growth in China, if there is a backlash against globalisation and free trade then peak oil could be masked for another 5 years.
In a way this will a best case scenario as it will give time for alternative techonogies to be developed.
In a way this will a best case scenario as it will give time for alternative techonogies to be developed.
I hope we never Peak, I hope people keep ridiculing me for talking about Oil depletion changing the way we live our comfortable lives, I hope we find some more elephant fields, I hope we discover Oil in space, I hope we've got enough resources so as to make some new replaceable energy.
I think anyone who wants to rush PO on are mental! I put my money on Deffeyes prediction being correct, mainly because I always lose bets
I think anyone who wants to rush PO on are mental! I put my money on Deffeyes prediction being correct, mainly because I always lose bets
Enjoy yourself with the time remaining, I've decided I'm going to.
Wilderness survival techniques have no relevance to the problems Peak Oil will pose 60,000,000 mainly urban and suburban people in the UK. Are you advocating a long term return to a hunter-gather existence? We all learn how to catch and skin rabbits? Tickle trout? Not possible . too many people and too little 'wilderness'.Koba wrote:Skeptik, go and do something contructive, here is a website where you can do something practical:
www.uksurvivalschool.co.uk
You never know you might not be so scared of change when you realise just how easy it is to survive away from your computer.
And remember "Fortes fortuna adiuvat"
Huntergathering only works at very low population density. And in reality there is no wilderness in the UK. All land is managed. All UK landcape has been modified by human activity since UK was settled at the end of the last ice age. Wherever you go in the 'wilderness' areas of the UK you will find sheep and sheep farmers. Or forestry workers. Or soldiers firing guns.
And what happens when the Gortex jacket and boots wear out? The knife gets lost or broken? How are you going to make any more? What will you do when an impacted wisdom tooth goes bad, or a cut goes gangenous then septicaemia starts to set in?
Survival technique is just that. Short term technique to keep you alive in an emergency out in the wilderness until the helicopter can pick you up and ferry you back to the nearest casualty unit or your flat in Notting Hill.
Its the bare minimum. Nothing about it is social or long term. I see it as a self indulgence for rich westerners in the context of high population density urbanised societies. In the context of the effects that PO could have on UK society it offers us nothing. You'd be better off learning basic mechanical and electrical engineering and high intensity organic farming.
Thanks for the link to the survival school, but I learnt all that stuff 30 years ago. No doubt I'll be putting a little of it into practice again on the 6th April in Snowdonia with my two habitual walking companions. (I had a serious car accident in '81 which limits me slightly - I dont do 'serious' rock climbing/mountaineering any more) I prefer the Austrian Alps (Hohe Tauern National Park is my favourite area in Austria) and the Rockies as being more genuinely 'wilderness' than the Ogwen Valley and Betws-Y-Coed, but I can afford a ?31 supersaver return from Euston to Conway more often than the air fare to Denver or Munich.
Heres a couple I took earlier. Coming off the mountains, late afternoon sometime early last August. After an excellent days walking and scrambling we picked up the West Highland Way into Bridge of Orchy.
Crossing a Valley
Somewhere near Tyndrum. if memory serves. The best sirloin you'll ever taste. I can hardly look at that picture without salivating. The seafood is also excellent in the West Highlands. Check out the smokery at the head of Loch Fyne if you are ever in the area. Superb smoked salmon oysters etc.. Another favourite is wild Chamois (from the annual cull) - on the menu in the Hohe Tauern in Austria. Makes an excellent rich stew.
Last edited by skeptik on 27 Mar 2006, 19:19, edited 3 times in total.
We'd better not let any Peak Oil debunkers see this thread - I can see the websites now: 
1) We all pretty much agree that things will be harder for most people after Peak Oil, whenever it happens, and nobody wants things to be harder.
2) Some think that taking the pain now rather than later will give a) the planet more chances of not deteriorating totally b) a lower fall due to less dependency (a lower energy height from which to fall)
3) Some think that with a bit more time we can do some things to mitigate the downside and trough (a high energy trough to end up in)
4) Some, if we put the bad consequences of peak oil aside, think that today's society is flawed (either spiritually, equitably, morally, mentally) and some of its flaws may be removed by our post peak change, others (and I think that these may be in the minority) think that our current society is great.
Finally. Most want to delay it a little while - I'll see what I can do for you.
Anyway I think I'll summarise:"EVEN PEAK OILER DON'T AGREE - How are we expected to believe a theory when even its advocates aren't in agreement on when it will happen, what will be the consequences and most importantly - whether they want it to happen sooner rather than later? Maybe we can run the planet's energy needs on all their hot air."
1) We all pretty much agree that things will be harder for most people after Peak Oil, whenever it happens, and nobody wants things to be harder.
2) Some think that taking the pain now rather than later will give a) the planet more chances of not deteriorating totally b) a lower fall due to less dependency (a lower energy height from which to fall)
3) Some think that with a bit more time we can do some things to mitigate the downside and trough (a high energy trough to end up in)
4) Some, if we put the bad consequences of peak oil aside, think that today's society is flawed (either spiritually, equitably, morally, mentally) and some of its flaws may be removed by our post peak change, others (and I think that these may be in the minority) think that our current society is great.
Finally. Most want to delay it a little while - I'll see what I can do for you.
Last edited by newmac on 27 Mar 2006, 17:24, edited 1 time in total.
"You can't be stationary on a moving train" - Howard Zinn