UK Gas and Electricity Crisis Looming

GD · Post by GD » 14 Mar 2006, 13:52

I've had nothing but blackouts all day t

Post by **clv101** » 14 Mar 2006, 14:26

If anyone following the US gas price - they are currently at $7.20 per 1000 cubic feet.

I think this is the correct conversion

Our price of 255 pence/therm
There is 29.3 KWh/therm

Therefore 8.7 pence/KWh

10.9 GWh/mcm
10.9 KWh/cm

Therefore 94.9 pence/cm

35.3 cf/cm

2.69 p/cf
?26.9 / 1000 cf

Which is around $46.7 /1000 cf, only 6.5 times more expensive than the Americans!

A bit long winded since the only energy to volume ratio I knew off top of my head was GWh to mcm!

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 14 Mar 2006, 15:39

I've had nothing but blackouts all day t

I should take more water with it, mate!

Joules · Post by **Joules** » 17 Mar 2006, 17:27

On his last Seeboard bill, my brother was advised that his electricity prices were going up 4.7%. Knowing that I have an interest in energy supply issues (i.e. I read this forum

) he asked me for advice about switching to another supplier. I don't think there's any point in him using a service like uswitch.com because a cheap supplier today is quite likely to announce price hikes tomorrow. Seeboard have offered my brother a 2 yr fixed rate deal, but I think he should be looking for something longer term. The problem with this is that it is likely to cost him more in the short term... Should I have the confidence to tell him that this is what he should do?

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 17 Mar 2006, 17:30

No just try to use 5% less electricity.

Joules · Post by **Joules** » 17 Mar 2006, 18:24

I see what you mean. You're right of course, but my brother's actually one of the good guys: no central heating, well insulated house, no mortgage (I think), grows his own fruit and veg, solid fuel fired hot water, no computers or mobile phone - real simple life stuff, the sort of thing I aspire to. To throw his electricity bill back at him and say 'use 5% less' seems harsh when he is doing so well in other areas.

Ballard · Post by **Ballard** » 17 Mar 2006, 19:29

Get a fixed rate ?

Still, it might not be really worth it now, execpt for peace of mind.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 17 Mar 2006, 20:38

He'll change to Ecotricity if he's one of the good guys.
Saving a little money is no use - you just spend it on stuff that uses even more energy.

StephenCurran (Stef) · Post by **StephenCurran (Stef)** » 18 Mar 2006, 00:13

I'm currently doing some research for a job application regarding an electricity analyst post and came across this....
I'm sure that one of you guys (meant generically of course; In the Yankee sense!) have already posted something like this, but I couldn't find anything in this thread so, what the hey as the religious guy in the Simpsons says:.... at least I think that's him...wondering...

Erm,, on a related note, thanks civ for the post on converting from pence/therms to pence/kWh... it made understanding the above graph mucho easier.
Note: This graph is pretty much the same as the old pence/therms vs time graph, posted earlier on this thread, just with pence/therms replaced with pounds/MWh. I guess this makes it useful not just for gas supply analysis, but also for electricity analysis as well.
SeeYa
Stef

Joules · Post by **Joules** » 18 Mar 2006, 10:24

biffvernon wrote:He'll change to Ecotricity if he's one of the good guys.

Simple, yet brilliant. I signed him up this morning.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 18 Mar 2006, 23:33

Well done Joules.

I had a letter from Ecotricity announcing a price rise - they keep the same price as one's regional supplier, in my case nPower. It was a good letter, no nonsense, just straigh talking. Here's a bit:

You've probably seen some of the various news reports of the last few weeks concerning the rise in wholesale energy prices. The roots of this are to be found in the global energy situation. Quite simply the rate at which the world is consuming energy is now on the verge of overtaking the rate at which it can be supplied, creating the fear of shortages and consequent price rises. Our situation in the UK is made worse firstly by the depletion of our North Sea reserves and secondly by being at the end of the pipe that supplies Europe, and so we are the last to receive imported gas. ...

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Mar 2006, 23:44

biffvernon wrote:Well done Joules.

I had a letter from Ecotricity announcing a price rise - they keep the same price as one's regional supplier, in my case nPower. It was a good letter, no nonsense, just straigh talking. Here's a bit:
You've probably seen some of the various news reports of the last few weeks concerning the rise in wholesale energy prices. The roots of this are to be found in the global energy situation. Quite simply the rate at which the world is consuming energy is now on the verge of overtaking the rate at which it can be supplied, creating the fear of shortages and consequent price rises. Our situation in the UK is made worse firstly by the depletion of our North Sea reserves and secondly by being at the end of the pipe that supplies Europe, and so we are the last to receive imported gas. ...

Pity ecotricity aren't immune to the price rises due to sourcing their power from the wind. If they were, I bet it would bring in the punters pretty darn quick!

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 19 Mar 2006, 11:48

Tess wrote:Pity ecotricity aren't immune to the price rises due to sourcing their power from the wind. If they were, I bet it would bring in the punters pretty darn quick!

I gather they have a policy of matching the regional supplier's price. This means they do not play a part in the shortsighted game of keeping energy prices low but can benefit from price rises, reinvesting profit to fund their new turbine building programme. Thus the higher the price the more capital Ecotricity have to build a sustainable system.

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Mar 2006, 07:39

OK, just to bring this discussion slightly closer to the title...

What do people think of the situation on supplies? It seems like it will be chilly for most of this week, especially around the middle. Might warm up at the weekend, but we all know how reliable forecasts of that range are... It seems reasonable to expect 330-350mcm from Beach+IOG+Interconnector, while seasonal weekday demand is around 340-345mcm this week. I guess that means we'd need some pretty cold days to cause a problem?

I'm more interested now in how long the prices remain elevated, as that's what will determine the level of the next price rise. This can't be far away, and it's the price rises which will cause the drag on the economy we've all been predicting for so long and are now beginnning to experience.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 20 Mar 2006, 08:00

mikepepler wrote: ...it's the price rises which will cause the drag on the economy we've all been predicting for so long and are now beginning to experience.

How does this 'drag on the economy' work? The increased amount of money spent on energy circulates through the economy, or is the gasman stuffing it under his mattress? The economy only slows down when there is actual demand destruction. This, of course, is already happening in the dysfunctional economies such as Eritrea, Zimbabwe etc. but, at least for a while, we are insulated from the poverty of others.