Gold - Peter Blegvad
Gold would be worthless if it didn?t require
such heartbreak to seek it, to find it and mine it
Things remain precious as long as they?re rare
If gold could be found lying ?round everywhere
it would be the lowliest of metals, too soft for serious use
Pretty, of course and warm to the touch
but no longer alluring when you?ve handled so much
The lowliest of metals
Will you come with me through the ice and the snow?
She thought for a minute, then she said: let?s go
I rode behind her as she rode ahead
and all through that winter I?d lose her and find her
Our rations ran out, our horses were dead
she forgot what gold was and I had to remind her:
it?s the lowliest of metals, too soft for serious use
pretty, of course, warm to the touch
but no longer alluring when you?ve handled so much
The lowliest of metals
In a prospector?s shack she lay out of her mind
describing how simple gold is to find
Just under the surface in zigzagging veins
it lies there in branches of midsummer lightning
You just open a hole in the crust of the plains
she said: you reach in and it?s there for the taking
Gold
Snow-blind and starving I sat by her side
as the fever raged in her and the storm raged outside
She said: now we are rich, I told her the truth:
all the gold we had found could not crown a tooth
She said: these things I know without being told
we are rich in each other, so what good is gold?
It?s the lowliest of metals
Sometimes I dream that the world is reversed
I dream that accountants are rarer than poets
That things will get better, that they can?t get any worse
and that a rich man has nothing but dirt in his purse
And gold is the lowliest of metals, too soft for serious use
pretty, of course and warm to the touch
but no longer alluring when you?ve handled so much
The lowliest of metals.
Investing in physical gold – discuss
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Good analogy Skeptik, but to be honest it's a bit of an extreme example. I can tell you now that I'd rather have ?1,000 quids worth of gold in my back pocket than ?1,000 quids worth of heavy items that I would have to abandon if, for some reason, I had to leave in a hurry or was forced to move.
If I was a farmer who bartered with my wheat, I would not want to have to rely on the harvest every year - if I made a bit of a profit one year I would want to store it as something tangible and stable that could be valued easily etc., transported easily if required (how do I take 500 fishing rods to market to buy some bread?). Why would a baker want fishing rods?
Not saying you're wrong - I'm no expert myself, just my tuppence.
If I was a farmer who bartered with my wheat, I would not want to have to rely on the harvest every year - if I made a bit of a profit one year I would want to store it as something tangible and stable that could be valued easily etc., transported easily if required (how do I take 500 fishing rods to market to buy some bread?). Why would a baker want fishing rods?
Not saying you're wrong - I'm no expert myself, just my tuppence.
DODGY TAX AVOIDERS says its from an album called 'King Strut & Other Stories" originally from 1990, re-released 2003, now on 4-6 weeks delivery (which in my experience is DODGY TAX AVOIDERS-speak for unobtainable)oobers wrote:Gold - Peter Blegvad
The 'people who bought this also bought..." list interests me - any chance of a snatch of mp3 oobers? (no samples on DODGY TAX AVOIDERS). Is his later stuff any good?
RogerCO
___________________________________
The time for politics is past - now is the time for action.
___________________________________
The time for politics is past - now is the time for action.
I have it on a compilation called 'Choices Under Pressure - An acoustic retrospective'. Its a good mix of his stuff from 1974 on, re-recorded in 2000.RogerCO wrote:DODGY TAX AVOIDERS says its from an album called 'King Strut & Other Stories" originally from 1990, re-released 2003, now on 4-6 weeks delivery (which in my experience is DODGY TAX AVOIDERS-speak for unobtainable)oobers wrote:Gold - Peter Blegvad
The 'people who bought this also bought..." list interests me - any chance of a snatch of mp3 oobers? (no samples on DODGY TAX AVOIDERS). Is his later stuff any good?
I can send you mp3
think the anti gold lobby are missing the point, a valid criticism of buying gold would be that the price is going to fall over the next few years but I don't think it will
Whether gold or silver will be of use if society breaks down is obviously difficult to know, but the gold was never mean't to be an end in itself, it is a medium of exchange
if you expect gold to go up compared to pounds or $'s you convert your pounds or $'s into gold
later, probably after a very serious economic mess, when land and houses may be a good deal cheaper than now one can sell the gold to buy land
the point about trust, relations, friends, skills are all valid but they will be essential only later, certainly the idea of moving and forming a community has an interest for me on the medium / longer term
---
my opinion is that silver will outperform gold, I also use
http://goldmoney.com/
which someone mentioned earlier, they keep gold or silver for you. For silver in the UK you cannot take personal delivery unless you pay VAT but having it kept for you avoids this
---
andyh
if you are who I think you are you'll recognise the name
Whether gold or silver will be of use if society breaks down is obviously difficult to know, but the gold was never mean't to be an end in itself, it is a medium of exchange
if you expect gold to go up compared to pounds or $'s you convert your pounds or $'s into gold
later, probably after a very serious economic mess, when land and houses may be a good deal cheaper than now one can sell the gold to buy land
the point about trust, relations, friends, skills are all valid but they will be essential only later, certainly the idea of moving and forming a community has an interest for me on the medium / longer term
---
my opinion is that silver will outperform gold, I also use
http://goldmoney.com/
which someone mentioned earlier, they keep gold or silver for you. For silver in the UK you cannot take personal delivery unless you pay VAT but having it kept for you avoids this
---
andyh
if you are who I think you are you'll recognise the name
greetings alexx, nice to see you here - yes I am indeed who you think I am from advfn.
You put your points very well, investing in precious metals at the moment is an interim solution, not as some seem to believe an end in itself. Peakoil poses a real threat to the value of all fiat (paper) currencies as inflation takes hold; gold should act to protect investors from that. A small example - I have been buying physical gold in NZ as a longer term hedge against the effects of peakoil and as a hedge against a falling NZ$ (its falling because of reasons other than peakoil at the minute, though the latter is certainly not helping). As gold is priced in US$ as the NZ$ falls against the worlds currencies the value of my gold goes up - in fact the price has moved in my favour by $100 an oz in a month. This is a microcosm of what I and others believe will happen to all paper based currencies in the future. The plan is that at some point in the future you then convert your gold back into paper money and then buy what you think would be more useful ie land (in the meantime having protected if not increased your store of value).
I think some folk here think you buy the gold and then sit on it till doomsday (whereupon the analogies of worthless metal may come true). that is emphatically NOT the idea.
You put your points very well, investing in precious metals at the moment is an interim solution, not as some seem to believe an end in itself. Peakoil poses a real threat to the value of all fiat (paper) currencies as inflation takes hold; gold should act to protect investors from that. A small example - I have been buying physical gold in NZ as a longer term hedge against the effects of peakoil and as a hedge against a falling NZ$ (its falling because of reasons other than peakoil at the minute, though the latter is certainly not helping). As gold is priced in US$ as the NZ$ falls against the worlds currencies the value of my gold goes up - in fact the price has moved in my favour by $100 an oz in a month. This is a microcosm of what I and others believe will happen to all paper based currencies in the future. The plan is that at some point in the future you then convert your gold back into paper money and then buy what you think would be more useful ie land (in the meantime having protected if not increased your store of value).
I think some folk here think you buy the gold and then sit on it till doomsday (whereupon the analogies of worthless metal may come true). that is emphatically NOT the idea.
FT: Gold set to become even scarcer
By Rebecca Bream in London
Published: April 2 2006 20:21
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b997c8bc-c262- ... e2340.html
By Rebecca Bream in London
Published: April 2 2006 20:21
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b997c8bc-c262- ... e2340.html
Gold is now within a hairsbreath of $600US as oil seems likely to test $70 again. What PoG will be when oil is pushing $80-90 off the back of hurricanes in the Gulf this summer is anyones guess. However the silver price offers some clues. Both markets are still miniscule at the moment compared to for example FOREX markets etc - so the move from the latter to the former has a long long way to go IMO.
Interesting article Joe, thanks, and chimes with what I have read elsewhere.
Interesting article Joe, thanks, and chimes with what I have read elsewhere.
..about $1200/ozDamianB wrote:.... the long-term (decades) oil:gold ratio is 15.4:1 which implies gold should be $924/oz with oil at $60/bbl.
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
Interesting piece (few months old now) on the relationship between oil price and gold:
http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex3.htm
The first graphic highlights the way in which the two influence each other (note that gold has played catch up to $600 since end of 2005), and subsequent graphics indicate how gold should have in fact already been pulled higher.
I think the implications for the price of gold once oil hits $100 a barrel are fairly clear.
http://www.zealllc.com/2005/gorex3.htm
The first graphic highlights the way in which the two influence each other (note that gold has played catch up to $600 since end of 2005), and subsequent graphics indicate how gold should have in fact already been pulled higher.
I think the implications for the price of gold once oil hits $100 a barrel are fairly clear.
Yes, and gold is starting to take wing now as well. Its passed $1000NZ an ounce here.
I dont think its out of the question that it will hit $1000US in the next 12 months.
I cant help feeling that the ground is moving - when you read articles like the recent Guardian one based on Chris Srebrowski research in Petroleum Review and it confirms that capacity CANT possibly meet demand in the next few years you realise the game is nearly up.
For what its worth I continue to accumulate physical gold - it is my belief that in a matter of a few years gold bought now will be worth multiples of what its worth now. The key is then deciding when to swop that gold into the ultimate store of value for times ahead; agricultural land.
I dont think its out of the question that it will hit $1000US in the next 12 months.
I cant help feeling that the ground is moving - when you read articles like the recent Guardian one based on Chris Srebrowski research in Petroleum Review and it confirms that capacity CANT possibly meet demand in the next few years you realise the game is nearly up.
For what its worth I continue to accumulate physical gold - it is my belief that in a matter of a few years gold bought now will be worth multiples of what its worth now. The key is then deciding when to swop that gold into the ultimate store of value for times ahead; agricultural land.
If you are pretty quick, all commodities and PM's can probably be used to advance your position for the time when the system hit Game Over. As soon as Game Over happen, silver is useful for it's antibiotic properties and gold is useful for nothing at all.Bandidoz wrote:What's your view on other metals, notably Silver and Copper?
Well almost all the industrial metals are going ballistic so if you are exposed to them good luck.
I do however have a problem with those punting for a continued bull run in the price of 'industrial' use metals. demand for these has of course popped off the scale because of China, india etc and the fact that the world economy galloped along at 4.5% last year.
Inevitably as oil gets higher and higher demand for them must eventually get choked off as recession sets in (or at least thats how I see it). At which point I believe the commodities bull will end (and quite bloodily I imagine - after all as folk get used to the idea of a contracting rather than an expanding global economy certain things will get re-assessed rather quickly!). So if i were in Cu,Zn,Pb etc I would have a very close eye on oil and some idea of at what level it was going to cause major damage to the global economy (the figure of $90-100 is often bandied around - so there could be many more good months for investors in these classes).
What of Au and Ag in this scenario? Well the two metals (particularly Au) have taditionally also had a nominal monetary value attached to them - would they suffer the same fate then? Certainly back in the last oil crisis in the 70s once the price of oil tumbled (as recession took hold, demand collapsed etc) so did gold (and so did commodities in general - backing up my points above). But would things be different this time? The realisation that the world had changed for ever (coupled with the damage that the fiat currencies will have suffered) may by then have made Au (and Ag) the ultimate portable stores of wealth (at least of a mid term basis).
So my guess is:
Gold, silver, industrial metals to continue to do very well up to the point at which recession sets in (in fact markets acting 6-12 months in advance, so up to the point at which growth starts to slow markedly).
At that point the industrial metals uncouple, and start to tumble.
Au (and to an extent Ag) continue to do well after then (but no longer a one way bet - as they are now).
Subsequently of course its possible to envisage a series of short lived recoveries in the economy as each cycle of demand and supply plays out, so there may then be mini-cycles in the above but who knows that far out?
I do however have a problem with those punting for a continued bull run in the price of 'industrial' use metals. demand for these has of course popped off the scale because of China, india etc and the fact that the world economy galloped along at 4.5% last year.
Inevitably as oil gets higher and higher demand for them must eventually get choked off as recession sets in (or at least thats how I see it). At which point I believe the commodities bull will end (and quite bloodily I imagine - after all as folk get used to the idea of a contracting rather than an expanding global economy certain things will get re-assessed rather quickly!). So if i were in Cu,Zn,Pb etc I would have a very close eye on oil and some idea of at what level it was going to cause major damage to the global economy (the figure of $90-100 is often bandied around - so there could be many more good months for investors in these classes).
What of Au and Ag in this scenario? Well the two metals (particularly Au) have taditionally also had a nominal monetary value attached to them - would they suffer the same fate then? Certainly back in the last oil crisis in the 70s once the price of oil tumbled (as recession took hold, demand collapsed etc) so did gold (and so did commodities in general - backing up my points above). But would things be different this time? The realisation that the world had changed for ever (coupled with the damage that the fiat currencies will have suffered) may by then have made Au (and Ag) the ultimate portable stores of wealth (at least of a mid term basis).
So my guess is:
Gold, silver, industrial metals to continue to do very well up to the point at which recession sets in (in fact markets acting 6-12 months in advance, so up to the point at which growth starts to slow markedly).
At that point the industrial metals uncouple, and start to tumble.
Au (and to an extent Ag) continue to do well after then (but no longer a one way bet - as they are now).
Subsequently of course its possible to envisage a series of short lived recoveries in the economy as each cycle of demand and supply plays out, so there may then be mini-cycles in the above but who knows that far out?