Your election predictions please

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 04 May 2010, 21:18

OK, so it's the toughest election to predict in a generation, by far. One day to go. I think the labour vote will collapse, but it may not collapse so badly in the key lab-con marginals. My prediction is that the libdems take 40 seats from labour, that there is not much net movement on the lib-con battlefront and that the result of the election will be decided by the strength of anti-tory tactical voting in lab-con marginals.

Approximate predicted result:

CON 300 (+90)
LAB 220 (-125)
LIB 102 (+40)
OTH 35 (+6)

Conservative 25 short of a majority.

Anyone else want to make themself look stupid?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 04 May 2010, 21:46

And then Brown resigns, Miliband becomes PM with Clegg Foreign Secretary and Cable Chancellor.

The coalition of Labour (new and old), Liberal and Social Democrats eventually form a new centre-left party with the support of around 70% of the electorate and the Tories are are banished to the wilderness for ever.

Quintus · Post by **Quintus** » 04 May 2010, 22:37

I get my poll averages from here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/uk-po ... rt-average

Then use the seats predictor:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Currently it works out as:

35% Con (278 seats)
28% Lab (254 seats)
27% LibDem (86 seats)

But there is that Reuters recent survey of marginal seats that suggests the Toris are doing much better (and spending much more) where it matters most.

I'll stick my neck out and predict the Tories will be +10 or -10 of what they need for a majority. Either way they will press ahead with an austerity budget and dare anyone to vote it down. (VAT to go up from 17.5% to 19.5% and be extended to other items – “we had a look at the books and it was even worse than we thought”.) If they get less seats than I predict they can bring in smaller parties; the N Irish, Scots and Welsh want some protection for their budgets.

The SNP had their budget voted down once, the public were angry, a few small changes were made and the budget then zoomed through easily. Today there will be "market wobbles" (possibly helped by Tory friends) to add to the reasons the budget will fly through. Plus - a lot of the Tory manifesto doesn't need legislation anyway (e.g. cutting dept budgets).

Hope I’m wrong; I want a hung parliament and a referendum for full PR.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 04 May 2010, 22:54

I wouldn't be surprised if all this talk of hung parliaments and the Lib Dems doing well comes to nothing, and when people are in the polling booth it will be the usual Tory/Labour choice. It's fun to discuss change, but too scary to actually make it happen

.

jonny2mad · Post by **jonny2mad** » 04 May 2010, 23:03

well whoever wins will soon become hated because of all the austerity, really you should all pray for the party you like least to win

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 04 May 2010, 23:27

Quintus wrote:I get my poll averages from here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/uk-po ... rt-average

Then use the seats predictor:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Currently it works out as:

35% Con (278 seats)
28% Lab (254 seats)
27% LibDem (86 seats)

But there is that Reuters recent survey of marginal seats that suggests the Toris are doing much better (and spending much more) where it matters most.

I'll stick my neck out and predict the Tories will be +10 or -10 of what they need for a majority. Either way they will press ahead with an austerity budget and dare anyone to vote it down.

They can't do that. If they do not have an overall majority then GB stays PM and gets firsts dibs on putting a coalition together. Only if he fails to do so does Cameron get the chance to try to get a budget through.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 04 May 2010, 23:31

jonny2mad wrote:well whoever wins will soon become hated because of all the austerity, really you should all pray for the party you like least to win

That's one of the many strange things about this election. It is not impossible that the tories win it but only just and end up having an ongoing nightmare from which they will never recover.

Quintus · Post by **Quintus** » 04 May 2010, 23:34

UndercoverElephant wrote:They can't do that. If they do not have an overall majority then GB stays PM and gets firsts dibs on putting a coalition together. Only if he fails to do so does Cameron get the chance to try to get a budget through.

I was about to disagree with you but this article - I think - supports your positon.

As David Cameron seems to have realised, perhaps a little late in the day, the leader of the largest party after Thursday's vote is not automatically granted the keys to No 10. Gordon Brown will remain prime minister until he chooses to resign or is defeated in the House of Commons. As the Queen's chief constitutional adviser the prime minister is also expected to advise the Queen on who to appoint as his successor – a simple task for Tony Blair in 2007 and John Major in 1997. But in this hung parliament things could get complicated, leading the Queen to have to make a judgment call on who to invite to form the next government.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... parliament

If no party obtains a majority we're all likely to be constitutional experts - and digging out our history books - over the next few months!

2 As and a B · Post by **2 As and a B** » 05 May 2010, 06:16

I predict that I will be very tired by the time the next government forms.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 05 May 2010, 06:48

biffvernon wrote:And then Brown resigns, Miliband becomes PM with Clegg Foreign Secretary and Cable Chancellor.

The coalition of Labour (new and old), Liberal and Social Democrats eventually form a new centre-left party with the support of around 70% of the electorate and the Tories are are banished to the wilderness for ever.

If only ...............

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 05 May 2010, 09:50

JohnB wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if all this talk of hung parliaments and the Lib Dems doing well comes to nothing, and when people are in the polling booth it will be the usual Tory/Labour choice. It's fun to discuss change, but too scary to actually make it happen .

+1

Ippoippo · Post by **Ippoippo** » 05 May 2010, 11:10

JohnB wrote:I wouldn't be surprised if all this talk of hung parliaments and the Lib Dems doing well comes to nothing, and when people are in the polling booth it will be the usual Tory/Labour choice. It's fun to discuss change, but too scary to actually make it happen .

I suspect this is probably pretty close to the mark. The impression I get is that LibDem are more popular with the 'younger vote' (televised debate impact). However, when it comes to voting I bet a number of those who all of a sudden now support/like LD (or anyone else) will not actually be ar$ed enough to go out and vote.
So, despite an increase in turnout for that age group, it won't cause a significant amount of change in the overall voting pattern.

The older voters however will probably slip back into their old ways as you descibed above.

My gut feeling is a Tory minority govt. Annoying, because I think we need to bring in PR.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 05 May 2010, 13:22

Aurora wrote:
biffvernon wrote:And then Brown resigns, Miliband becomes PM with Clegg Foreign Secretary and Cable Chancellor.

The coalition of Labour (new and old), Liberal and Social Democrats eventually form a new centre-left party with the support of around 70% of the electorate and the Tories are are banished to the wilderness for ever.

If only ...............

What's the wilderness done that's so terrible it deserves to have a load of Tories dumped on it?

Anyway I think the Lab/Con point's right: people can be reet cowards in the polling booth.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 05 May 2010, 14:16

RenewableCandy wrote:What's the wilderness done that's so terrible it deserves to have a load of Tories dumped on it?

Oh, that's a good point. I'd be inclined to send them to Hell in a handcart, but
there's too much risk we'll all be going there so we'd have to meet up again.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 05 May 2010, 15:04

biffvernon wrote:Oh, that's a good point. I'd be inclined to send them to Hell in a handcart

Sending them by car would be better, as there are far too many of them. We could make better use of the handcart here