What will the new government do about the deficit?

[nexus]

Interesting blog from Paul Mason, who says that Osbourne (if the Tories win) has a '100-day plan' for UK finances..... which he's keeping under wraps
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/paulmason/

[Quintus]

A few months ago, when the Tories were riding high in the polls and assumed to be a shoe-in for a hefty majority, I recall Cameron being quoted as saying "we'll be the most unpopular government in history within six months of office".

His Big Society' idea will mean, in practice, "it has nothing to do with the state". Rather like the closure of psychiatric institutions - and mentally disturbed people left wandering the streets of our cities - was labeled 'Care in the Community'.

There have to be cuts as well as tax rises, but it's a question of values and priorities. Someone needs to leak that '100-day plan' now!

[biffvernon]

I met a bloke today with responsibility for financial management in a major university to whom it has been suggested that 10% cuts will be required after the election. He is searching for a way of saving £700 000 from his £7m budget. He does not know how to do it.

[RenewableCandy]

In Russia, inflation effectively halved the salaries of research staff at their Unis and Institutes. They still turned up for work, and researched with gusto. Then the financial crisis hit and the Unis and Institutes couldn't find any cash for their wages at all. The research staff still turned up for work, and carried on with their projects. One particular HoD was telling this to a colleague, who asked him:

Have you thought of charging them admission?

[Quintus]

Universities have a high turnover of staff and lots of people on fixed contracts. As staff are the biggest cost, by far, there's bound to be a recruitment freeze. Plus something done on employer pension contributions. Plus possible pay regrading.

I imagine the student fees cap will be lifted (unless the LibDems argue against it). We already have the most indebted students in Europe.

[nexus]

Ahem... important though higher education is, aren't we forgetting possible cuts in other areas like the NHS, the environment, benefits and tax credits, transport, libraries and museums, defence, social and care services, probation, prisons, schools and nurseries, police, fire service the list goes on.......

Apparently these cuts are going to be deeper than the ones Thatcher made. Anyone else remember those???

Is anyone else concerned that if benefits are cut things are going to get difficult, fast? I've worked extensively over the past twenty years with people from deprived areas and I've noticed a massive change in the culture of these communities. Low level crime is ubiquitous. A massive proportion of people are addicted to either alcohol, illicit drugs or prescription medications. Many are suffering mental and physical ill health. Millions are on Incapacity Benefit, a significant proportion have never worked at all, some have worked but usually cash in hand. Many are second or third generation from work less families. The gangster lifestle with brands, bling and attack dogs is a major aspiration.

The biggest change however, has been the culture of entitlement. I very much support the welfare state and think that our society should be judged on how we support the most vulnerable in our society, but the things I witnessed during the last few years made me despair. A very high proportion of the people I had contact with, fundamentally believe that whatever they do, the state should look after them and provide for them. A young woman I heard interviewed on R4 this week summed it up nicely when she said that she deserved to be looked after because she paid her taxes. The interviewer queried this as she didn't have a job and she replied that she paid taxes on cigarettes and alcohol.

My guess is that when the rug is inevitably pulled out, those with a high sense of entitlement will turn to crime and the other, more vulnerable people will just crash through the holes in the net

What do others think?

[caspian]

According to the MoD's website, UK defence expenditure is £36.9bn for 2010/11. So let's get rid of defence completely, and wallop - that'll hive off a chunk of the deficit in a single year. Keep that up for a few more years and the problem's gone.

Who needs defence anyway? Let's be honest now, who is really going to invade us? Denmark? Costa Rica has no standing army, and one could hardly claim that they're located in an historically peaceful part of the world.

[Quintus]

So let's get rid of defence completely, and wallop - that'll hive off a chunk of the deficit in a single year. Keep that up for a few more years and the problem's gone.

Who needs defence anyway? Let's be honest now, who is really going to invade us? Denmark? Costa Rica has no standing army, and one could hardly claim that they're located in an historically peaceful part of the world.

If any party proposed that they'd not get elected; so we can discuss it in theory, but it'll not happen in practice.

Also - for good or bad - a lot of the reason the UK spends as much as it does on defence and 'international development' is a lot less to do with repelling potential Viking invaders and a lot more to do with (1) influencing terms of trade (2) influencing decisions taken in certain international organisations and the relationship with the US (3) defence being one of the UKs major industries.

[biffvernon]

If any party proposed that they'd not get elected; so we can discuss it in theory, but it'll not happen in practice.

I'd vote for that. My mummy told me killing people was wrong and very bad. I believed her and haven't changed my mind.

[kenneal - lagger]

........... I've worked extensively over the past twenty years with people from deprived areas and I've noticed a massive change in the culture of these communities. Low level crime is ubiquitous. A massive proportion of people are addicted to either alcohol, illicit drugs or prescription medications. Many are suffering mental and physical ill health. Millions are on Incapacity Benefit, a significant proportion have never worked at all, some have worked but usually cash in hand. Many are second or third generation from work less families. The gangster lifestle with brands, bling and attack dogs is a major aspiration.

The biggest change however, has been the culture of entitlement. I very much support the welfare state and think that our society should be judged on how we support the most vulnerable in our society, but the things I witnessed during the last few years made me despair. A very high proportion of the people I had contact with, fundamentally believe that whatever they do, the state should look after them and provide for them. A young woman I heard interviewed on R4 this week summed it up nicely when she said that she deserved to be looked after because she paid her taxes. The interviewer queried this as she didn't have a job and she replied that she paid taxes on cigarettes and alcohol.

And all that after 13 years of Labour rule. Tony B Liar was going to change all that when he came into power and he and Gordon have since claimed that they have sorted everything out. What Labour says happens and what actually happen are two different things.

The Tories said that they were going to be honest with people when the campaign first started but Labour and the Liberals had a field day, cutting the Tories lead in the poles, so the Tories, like any sensible person would, reverted to the same fudge that the other two parties were putting out.

After the election there will be cuts no matter who gets in. There will be mass union action, as has been threatened already, by public sector unions intent on retaining their feather bedded position, at the expense of everyone else. If Labour get back in, in my opinion, there will be more union trouble than if the Tories do because the unions know that Labour are a soft touch. That will result in more tax on the private sector and consequently less real jobs.

You can't keep unemployment down by continually creating non jobs in the private sector because they have to be paid for. And you can't pay for them by printing money like Labour have been doing: the money has to come from taxation eventually and the private sector is the ultimate source of that revenue. Higher taxation on the private sector will result in fewer real jobs.

The taxation we face in the next parliament is the cost of the past thirteen years of Labour mismanagement of the economy. Has anyone else not noticed that this usually happens after a period of Labour government? Probably not, because you're mostly too young.

[nexus]

I'm not too young but will have to disagree in part with you Ken. I think that much of our predicament is as a result of over reliance on the financial sector. This was as a result of the light touch regulation that Nu Labour proposed and enacted, in order to get business onside before the '97 election.

I'd like to see a smaller financial sector (so we're less reliant on revenues from financial speculation) and a massive growth in our manufacturing base. Additionally cut all quangos and 'big' government, but no front line cuts. I've worked in the NHS and other statutory and non stat organisations, always in front line jobs and the ratio of managers to staff actually doing the work is shocking. Don't get me started on the numpty jobs- usually ones with 'performance', 'strategic' or 'development' in the title and usually raking in £55k+. It'll be interesting when these start to get axed whether anyone notices.

[2 As and a B]

Actually, UK recessions seem to be linked to US Republican presidents and US wars.

[2 As and a B]

Ahem... important though higher education is, aren't we forgetting possible cuts in other areas like the NHS, the environment, benefits and tax credits, transport, libraries and museums, defence, social and care services, probation, prisons, schools and nurseries, police, fire service the list goes on.......

Apparently these cuts are going to be deeper than the ones Thatcher made. Anyone else remember those???

Is anyone else concerned that if benefits are cut things are going to get difficult, fast? I've worked extensively over the past twenty years with people from deprived areas and I've noticed a massive change in the culture of these communities. Low level crime is ubiquitous. A massive proportion of people are addicted to either alcohol, illicit drugs or prescription medications. Many are suffering mental and physical ill health. Millions are on Incapacity Benefit, a significant proportion have never worked at all, some have worked but usually cash in hand. Many are second or third generation from work less families. The gangster lifestle with brands, bling and attack dogs is a major aspiration.

The biggest change however, has been the culture of entitlement. I very much support the welfare state and think that our society should be judged on how we support the most vulnerable in our society, but the things I witnessed during the last few years made me despair. A very high proportion of the people I had contact with, fundamentally believe that whatever they do, the state should look after them and provide for them. A young woman I heard interviewed on R4 this week summed it up nicely when she said that she deserved to be looked after because she paid her taxes. The interviewer queried this as she didn't have a job and she replied that she paid taxes on cigarettes and alcohol.

My guess is that when the rug is inevitably pulled out, those with a high sense of entitlement will turn to crime and the other, more vulnerable people will just crash through the holes in the net

What do others think?

I agree. I think you have summed it up concisely.

I'd only add that prison for career villains should be a gruel and water and dingy single cell affair. I would moderate that with every opportunity for youngsters to avoid a life of crime - parenting skill help for their parents, parents to answer for their off-springs' crimes, community activity involvement, counselling, restorative justice, prison visits to see what is in store for them if they continue in their ways. The reintroduction of debtor prisons would also act as a spur to behave responsibly.

[stumuzz]

M..... ..... M..... ... M..... .......

[UndercoverElephant]

Ahem... important though higher education is, aren't we forgetting possible cuts in other areas like the NHS, the environment, benefits and tax credits, transport, libraries and museums, defence, social and care services, probation, prisons, schools and nurseries, police, fire service the list goes on.......

Apparently these cuts are going to be deeper than the ones Thatcher made. Anyone else remember those???

Is anyone else concerned that if benefits are cut things are going to get difficult, fast? I've worked extensively over the past twenty years with people from deprived areas and I've noticed a massive change in the culture of these communities. Low level crime is ubiquitous. A massive proportion of people are addicted to either alcohol, illicit drugs or prescription medications. Many are suffering mental and physical ill health. Millions are on Incapacity Benefit, a significant proportion have never worked at all, some have worked but usually cash in hand. Many are second or third generation from work less families. The gangster lifestle with brands, bling and attack dogs is a major aspiration.

The biggest change however, has been the culture of entitlement. I very much support the welfare state and think that our society should be judged on how we support the most vulnerable in our society, but the things I witnessed during the last few years made me despair. A very high proportion of the people I had contact with, fundamentally believe that whatever they do, the state should look after them and provide for them. A young woman I heard interviewed on R4 this week summed it up nicely when she said that she deserved to be looked after because she paid her taxes. The interviewer queried this as she didn't have a job and she replied that she paid taxes on cigarettes and alcohol.

My guess is that when the rug is inevitably pulled out, those with a high sense of entitlement will turn to crime and the other, more vulnerable people will just crash through the holes in the net

What do others think?

I think it is going to make the early 1980s look like a tea party.

As for looking after the most vulnerable, I think the BIG problem is going to be how we deal with an ageing population. The tories want to make sure that old people don't have to sell their houses to fund their care in old age? Dream on, Dave. We already have a black hole in future pension provision which is on the same scale as the black hole which currently exists in the UK's public finances. Combine that with the extra demands which will be placed on the NHS in looking after the medical needs of this army of pensioners and a long-term unemployment problem reducing the amount of taxes the government can raise.... Doesn't look good. Sooner or later the NHS is going to have to prioritise in order to make the best use of diminishing resources at a time of increased demands, and the losers are likely to be the elderly. Why waste those precious resources keeping old people alive for longer? The 21st century is going to be a bad time to be old or vulnerable.