It's All In The Sun ;-)

[MrG]

You would have noticed a huge difference without that insulation. Don't knock it, MrG.

Have you draught proofed every thing as well?

My house is draughty as F--k - I put gaffa tape round badly fiting windows. Next year I'll do the home made double glazing thing with clear plastic over the window. We got too front doors and a heavy curtain over the inside one.

The two front doors thing is a constant source of amusment to me when wrekheads get locked in the porch for hours at a time! (it happens not infrequently). I'm putting an emergency phone in the letterbox - "break seal only if locked in porch" with the neighbours phone number in it.

Yeah your probably right about the insulation it never really got that cold except in the mornings.. lots of people in and out and always got something cooking.. its all generating heat.

I actually saw 9 metres of flu pipe in the free ads that would of allowed me to line the chimney but it was just at the time I thought I was going to be able to get my hands on that land so I was scraping together every penny - typical - probably gone now but worth checking.

[MrG]

Rules about refrigeration temperatures in catering establishments and food shops are very strict, much more so than during the 1970s power cuts.

There's rules about how long stuff can be out of freeze as well but they don't always get stuck to - I used to work in the freezers at Azda and they were always refreezing stuff they shouldn't coz there wasn't space to move the cages round in the freezer.

Still looking for one who doesn't fly and likes the 'lottie though...

Tell me about it.. the current lady seems happy to sit in a camping chair and watch me potter round though.. getting there!

Flying - I'm with BA Baracus on that one "Ain't getting on no plane fool"

On the couple of occasions that I've been pursuaded to fly they've had to drug me up like BA.. diazepam - lots of diazepam. That's the only way to get me on one of those things.

[Keepz]

every home in the country would be left without power for an average of 40 minutes during the year.

Translation from Sunspeak to English:

every home in the country would be left without power for an average of 40 minutes per day.

Yes that is probably what they mean !

An average of 40 minutes a day is actually quite a lot, and could well endanger the weak, old, foolish, or ill prepared, or simply unlucky.

Remember that an average of 40 minutes a day is nothing like a promise that it will come back on in the 41st minute. Consider the following.

Blackouts due to lack of generating capacity are most unlikely during mild weather, since demand at such times is less.
Blackouts are also less likely at weekends, again because demand from industry is much reduced.
Blackouts are also unlikely between about 22.00 and about 06.00 the next morning, again due to reduced demand.

Therefore blackouts caused by lack of generating capacity are only likely on weekdays, in cold weather, and at times of peak demand.

Cold weather is roughly December, January, and Febuary, or about 90 days. Of those days, about 30 days are weekends or holidays when shortages are unlikely.
That leaves about 60 days with high risk of powercuts. If the anual average of 40 minutes powercuts per day is to be concentrated in those 60 days, rather than spread throughout the year, I make that about 240 minutes a day, or 4 hours daily.

"you must expect to be cut off for several hours every weekday, during cold weather, normally in the afternoon or early evening, but possibly at other times if it very cold"

That sounds rather worse than 40 minutes does it not !

Most members of these forums are prepared with backup arrangements, some are off-grid normally, I for one would not notice the difference at home.
This however is not the case for most people who regard electricity as a basic human right.
It cant be repeated too often that power would be interupted to one grid district at a time, without any regard for social need, vulnerability, or reliance on electricity.
We coped in the 1970s, but the world has changed a lot since then, we are more reliant on power, and also have a very risk averse culture that would discourage or prohibit any effort to manage without power.

While it's certainly true that the risk would be concentrated around a few hours of peak demand, there is absolutely no basis for the original assumption that when the Sun says 40 minutes during the year, it actually means 40 minutes per day.

Neither is it necessarily the case that power cuts would have to be indiscriminate. It is already the case that many large consumers are highly responsive to price changes and able to reduce demand voluntarily in response to supply tightness. More consumers will be able to do this as smart metering gets rolled out across the country, and work is already under way on remote control capability to enable power companies temporarily to reduce supply without harm or even perceptible difference to individual consumers. If electricity supply capacity does get as tight as this worst-case scenario suggests, then the price of electricity will go up and encourage more of this sort of technological development.

[syberberg]

Not enough economically recoverable coal.

... but most people I meet think that the UK is simply FLOATING on a veritable OCEAN of coal ...

Or that we can reopen the ones that were closed in the 1980's.

[adam2]

Some large industrial power users do indeed have the facility to reduce demand at peak times/times of shortage, and this would relieve the problem somwhat.

I cant see much help from domestic consumers though in this respect. The much talked about smart meters do not have any facility for remote load dissconection or reduction.
It is true that higher prices could be charged at times of shortage, and a few consumers might then reduce consumption, most IMHO would not.
Most would complain bitterly about "wicked profiteering" and charging more "just when families most NEED electricity" The poverty lobby would demand that the needy or vulnerable or elderly should be exempted from any peak charging. They would probably also demand an increase in social security to pay the higher prices.

It has been suggested that some appliances could be remote controlled via grid frequency, this would require specialy modified or manufactured appliances, and I see no sign of progress re this.
see here for example
http://www.dynamicdemand.co.uk/grid.htm
This would help with short term fluctuations, but is of limited use for shortages lasting hours.

[Mitch]

South Africa has no gas supply - I never saw anything but bottled gas before I came to the U.K. Everything is electric, it's all we knew. 25 years ago I lived in Newcastle, Natal. The town was built around the Iscor steel smellting plant, all electric furnaces obviously. 'Bulk 'leccy was charged taking maximum peak load into account - can't remeber the exact formula - but all the houses had remote switching fitted for the "geyser", South African for hot water tank with immersion heater and the cooker. It was well common for your cooker to just die in the middle of cooking a meal, or to wake up to a cold shower. The council would turn off the big load stuff whenever Iscor was starting up a furnace or two in order to reduce the maximum peak load and pay less for the bulk 'leccy. Was really surprised when this was only being discussed recently, since it was common place 25 years ago!!! On reflection, what heavy load stuff do we have here in the U.K. - anything that uses more than a couple of Kw is gas powered, so what could you turn off in a household which would make any appreciable difference to the load? (We did have electric storage heating in Scotland, so that may be something).

[RenewableCandy]

You can't go around turning Scotland off. There'd be hell to pay.

[adam2]

The risk of power cuts in the next few years has probably been increased by the recent election result.
The Lib dems are strongly opposed to nuclear power.
The conservatives will tolerate it provided that no subsidy is required, which appears unlikely
Both are against wind farms where anyone can seen them.

And we cant afford it, and if we could we dont have the time to build coal or nuclear plants.
Wind could be built in time but for the NIMBY factor, but is not the complete answer
Natural gas could be built in time, but would increase our reliance on imported natural gas, which will assuredly get more expensive and may be in short supply.
A coalition might work in some respects, but I can forsee diffecult decisions about power generation being postponned for a few years.

[PS_RalphW]

But the EU has deferred the regulations for shutting down our sulphur spewing coal power stations for another three years. That gives us another bite of the cherry. Of course, we will never shut down those plants as long as we have coal to burn.

We might even get a few nuclear stations built before the grid goes down.

Time will tell.