Are you going to vote tactically?

Adam1 · Post by **Adam1** » 06 Apr 2010, 20:53

In previous general elections I have, except in 1987, always lived in 'safe' constituencies and have often voted tactically against the Tories.

This time, I've decided not to. The electoral mathematics are more complex in our constituency. The Tories' vote will be reduced by UKIP and the Lib Dems by the Greens. Labour and BNP probably won't figure much. The constituency boundaries have changed since the last election and the sitting Tory - actually, he isn't one any more I don't think, as he had the whip taken away and is now retiring in the wake of the expenses issue - so it's difficult to predict what will happen.

I think a 'hung' parliament, which is actually a normal parliament in most parts of Europe, will be marginally better than one with an overall majority, not least given the situation we are in. However, given that the governing coalition will still be trying to 'get back to growth' I'm not convinced that they will do much better at responding realistically/appropriately.

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 06 Apr 2010, 21:09

As far as I know, there is no Green candidate in my constituency. There certainly hasn't been in the past. It's currently Plaid Cymru, so I'll vote for them, doing my bit to keep down the number of Tory and Labour MPs. After another month of campaigning I might be so pissed off that I can't be bothered to vote at all though. It seems like the election has been going on for months already

.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 06 Apr 2010, 21:39

My constituency is a true Blue Tory shire, so no chance of outing them with any sort of swing in their direction.

I will vote green, as usual.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 06 Apr 2010, 22:01

Mine too, but with no Green. On the last election results, even if either Labour or Liberal didn't stand and all the votes went to the other, Sir Peter Tapsell still wins. Labour and Liberal are pretty evenly split.

Kentucky Fried Panda · Post by **Kentucky Fried Panda** » 06 Apr 2010, 23:06

What's this election thing?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 06 Apr 2010, 23:25

JohnB wrote:As far as I know, there is no Green candidate in my constituency. There certainly hasn't been in the past. It's currently Plaid Cymru, so I'll vote for them, doing my bit to keep down the number of Tory and Labour MPs. After another month of campaigning I might be so pissed off that I can't be bothered to vote at all though. It seems like the election has been going on for months already .

MMMmmmm I'm lovin' it!

I've already said I'd vote green, but now I've decided to vote labour to stop the tories taking my seat (Brighton Kemptown). I'd vote green in Brighton pavillion or if it looked like labour was going to win the election.

2 As and a B · Post by **2 As and a B** » 07 Apr 2010, 08:14

Probably no Green candidate here, so hoping UKIP cripple the Tory vote and the Lib Dems win the seat.

goslow · Post by **goslow** » 07 Apr 2010, 09:38

Not sure. Not so easy to vote tatically when I am not sure I want any party with a clear majority. So might just stick to voting for the party that is closest to what I think. Even if its a minor player in our Lab-Con two way marginal.

The greens are being quite focused aren't they, no green candidate here either. I hope it works for them.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 07 Apr 2010, 10:16

Is there a web site listing previous results in each constituency?

I mean an easy to find and navigate one...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Apr 2010, 10:20

RalphW wrote:Is there a web site listing previous results in each constituency?

I mean an easy to find and navigate one...

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

Be aware that the boundaries of many seats have changed, so last time's results need to be adjusted to reflect this. I have moved 500 metres and some local wards have been shifted between seats. As a result, I've moved from a consituency that the Greens can win to one where they polled 246 votes last time. I now live in the 42nd seat on the Tories hitlist. They need to take my seat to win a majority. I have to vote labour.

I think there will be a lot of tactical voting this time, and I think it will benefit the labour party and increase the chances of a hung parliament. The only tactical voting which will benefit the tories would be UKIP/BNP supporters voting tory to keep out labour.

2 As and a B · Post by **2 As and a B** » 07 Apr 2010, 10:23

2010 constituencies (including 2005 results adjusted for boundary changes): http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election ... ion/48.stm

2005 results: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/ ... efault.stm

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 07 Apr 2010, 11:18

RalphW wrote:Is there a web site listing previous results in each constituency?

I mean an easy to find and navigate one...

There is some good stuff on Wiki - here's my constituency:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louth_and_ ... stituency)

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Apr 2010, 11:45

The more I look at the details (see the predictor here http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/), the harder it gets to figure out what is going to happen. By the time you've tried to account for boundary changes, tactical voting, regional differences and unknowns such as whether David Cameron can run an entire campaign based upon himself...I really don't know. Could turn out anywhere between a deeply hung parliament with labour as the biggest party and tory majority of 30 to 50.

The best characterisation I've heard so far is "granite vs plastic". Brown ain't pretty, but at least there's something solid inside if you scratch the surface. Scratch the plastic surface of Cameron's tory party and what oozes out is little more than homophobia, racism and anti-EUism.

I think that a few people will indeed return to labour because they are worried that the tories lack experience and substance. I know it seems crazy, given the fiscal mess we're currently in, but the people only have a choice of two (sorry, Nick.) We'd all love Vince Cable to be in charge of the country's finances, but if it is a choice between Brown/Darling and Cameron/Osborne I suspect a significant number of people will opt for the devil they know.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 07 Apr 2010, 12:30

As I thought. My constituency has a traditionally conservative rural heartland, the richest (and oldest population) ward in the city, my village (Senior academics retirement home) and the high tech corner around Hinxton.

The boundary changes have pushed ever more natural Tories our way, so that the city can remain a viable target for Libs/Lab

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 07 Apr 2010, 17:02

In my constituency it would take every single Labour voter at the last election to switch to Lib/Dem to overthrow the incumbent.

Nationally, if there was a uniform swing of 9% from Lab to Lib and a 0.1% swing to CON, the CONs would gain more seats than the Libs.

For more than half the electorate, there is no realistic chance of changing anything.