Do we have 10 years of BAU?
Moderator: Peak Moderation
BAU for me ends the day the financial system fails. And it probably will fail incredibly quickly. It may take only a week to move from trust to worthlessness for the pound.
Jim
For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.
"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.
"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
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fifthcolumn
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Problem is Jim, we've been there before.SunnyJim wrote:BAU for me ends the day the financial system fails. And it probably will fail incredibly quickly. It may take only a week to move from trust to worthlessness for the pound.
The pound will fail, people will be poorer and a new currency will be brought in.
It's NOT going to go to happy-caring-sharing-communal-lives-in-the-country.
It will be BAU latin american style but still BAU.
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mikepepler
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Update to this... We'd been biding our time, waiting for another decline in house prices before buying. But there's a house on the market now that backs onto the wood which includes our 8 acres, literally 2 mins walk from the back gate to our boundary! It also has a chimney, currently with open fire and a solid fuel oven that can burn wood, so heating is sorted. Not only that, it also has a well! Oh, and a south facing roof ready for solar kit.
However, we believe that the cheapest we could get it is 250k (yes, it's an expensive area). We have about 10k, and could borrow from family to get a 25% deposit. That would let us get a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for the rest, but it would take 20 years to pay it all back.
It's a dilemma, as there are only ten or so houses this close to our wood, and most are bigger and so cost more, but I'm very wary of borrowing this much at a time like this.
Any thoughts?
However, we believe that the cheapest we could get it is 250k (yes, it's an expensive area). We have about 10k, and could borrow from family to get a 25% deposit. That would let us get a 10 year fixed rate mortgage for the rest, but it would take 20 years to pay it all back.
It's a dilemma, as there are only ten or so houses this close to our wood, and most are bigger and so cost more, but I'm very wary of borrowing this much at a time like this.
Any thoughts?
Mike, that does sound like a dilemma.....
What is the state of repair of the property? How many other rooms does it have? Is it walking distance to local shops? Is there enough ground with it to grow your own vegs? How easy would it be to get reasonable security of the perimeter of the property?
On first thoughts is does sound interesting! With the proximity to your wood.
Going into 20 years debt at this stage sounds scary. But I agree you can get good 10yr fixed rate mortgages at the moment. I think you have to consider how secure your jobs are and for what length of time? Also you may be able to take into account what annual revenue you expect to get from your wood. You have to live somewhere and I recall you are renting at the moment, so you may as well pay a mortgage as rent?
Not an easy decision.
What is the state of repair of the property? How many other rooms does it have? Is it walking distance to local shops? Is there enough ground with it to grow your own vegs? How easy would it be to get reasonable security of the perimeter of the property?
On first thoughts is does sound interesting! With the proximity to your wood.
Going into 20 years debt at this stage sounds scary. But I agree you can get good 10yr fixed rate mortgages at the moment. I think you have to consider how secure your jobs are and for what length of time? Also you may be able to take into account what annual revenue you expect to get from your wood. You have to live somewhere and I recall you are renting at the moment, so you may as well pay a mortgage as rent?
Not an easy decision.
Real money is gold and silver
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mikepepler
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A bit more background:
First, we've only had an "informal" viewing so far - we rode past it on our bikes, and the seller (son & daughter of owner who died last year) happened to be there. So we don't have all the details yet, we'll go for a proper viewing this week.
It's a 2-bed bungalow with bathroom, living room (south-facing), kitchen and conservatory (north-facing). The chimney for the stove & fireplace goes up the wall between the lounge and kitchen (this wall has a gap in it which should allow warm air to circulate).
There's no garage, but there's two sheds (and a wood store!) and you can get round the side of the house (to get our bikes to the shed). There's plenty of space to grow veg in the garden.
In terms of location, it's set back from the road down a shared drive, hidden behind another house. It's 0.6 miles from a supermarket (local chain with 3-4 stores). It's 4.3 miles from the train station in Rye.
About the perimeter of the poroperty, there's one bungalow to each side, house in front and woods to the back. It has fences at the side and back.
The way the finances stack up is that if we took a 25-year mortgage (10 year fixed rate), the repayments would be about £450 more than we're paying in rent at the moment, which we could afford. Over the first ten years or less we'd be able to pay family back the money borrowed, and then start overpaying the mortgage after that, completing in 20 years.
Part of what helps is I've got a promotion at work in July which will bring a pay rise, and then I'm going to increase my hours from 80% to just over 90% in September, effectively giving myself another 15% pay rise while still just about leaving enough time to work in the wood (and living next to it will help on time there!).
We'd stop selling firewood from the wood, as we'd be using it all ourselves, and that would actually save us time and fuel as we wouldn't driving aroundf delivering it. We may still other produce from the wood, focusing on higher value items.
There are other plus points as well, for example being able to sell the land rover as we'd no longer need to haul trailers of logs - we'd just carry a sack on our backs every time we went for a walk in the wood. Or if we got lazy we could always get a little quad bike and trailer...
In terms of job security, neither of us know of any particular threat to our jobs at the moment, and I always have the plan B of working locally in forestry for other people as I have all my gear and chainsaw ticket.
Of course, we may find that the seller won't like our offer of £250k, as that's a few 10s less than they're asking, but after our chat with them yesterday we think they could well be interested, as it's been on the market since November, they dropped the price 10% a few weeks ago and still haven't had any offers.
First, we've only had an "informal" viewing so far - we rode past it on our bikes, and the seller (son & daughter of owner who died last year) happened to be there. So we don't have all the details yet, we'll go for a proper viewing this week.
It's a 2-bed bungalow with bathroom, living room (south-facing), kitchen and conservatory (north-facing). The chimney for the stove & fireplace goes up the wall between the lounge and kitchen (this wall has a gap in it which should allow warm air to circulate).
There's no garage, but there's two sheds (and a wood store!) and you can get round the side of the house (to get our bikes to the shed). There's plenty of space to grow veg in the garden.
In terms of location, it's set back from the road down a shared drive, hidden behind another house. It's 0.6 miles from a supermarket (local chain with 3-4 stores). It's 4.3 miles from the train station in Rye.
About the perimeter of the poroperty, there's one bungalow to each side, house in front and woods to the back. It has fences at the side and back.
The way the finances stack up is that if we took a 25-year mortgage (10 year fixed rate), the repayments would be about £450 more than we're paying in rent at the moment, which we could afford. Over the first ten years or less we'd be able to pay family back the money borrowed, and then start overpaying the mortgage after that, completing in 20 years.
Part of what helps is I've got a promotion at work in July which will bring a pay rise, and then I'm going to increase my hours from 80% to just over 90% in September, effectively giving myself another 15% pay rise while still just about leaving enough time to work in the wood (and living next to it will help on time there!).
We'd stop selling firewood from the wood, as we'd be using it all ourselves, and that would actually save us time and fuel as we wouldn't driving aroundf delivering it. We may still other produce from the wood, focusing on higher value items.
There are other plus points as well, for example being able to sell the land rover as we'd no longer need to haul trailers of logs - we'd just carry a sack on our backs every time we went for a walk in the wood. Or if we got lazy we could always get a little quad bike and trailer...
In terms of job security, neither of us know of any particular threat to our jobs at the moment, and I always have the plan B of working locally in forestry for other people as I have all my gear and chainsaw ticket.
Of course, we may find that the seller won't like our offer of £250k, as that's a few 10s less than they're asking, but after our chat with them yesterday we think they could well be interested, as it's been on the market since November, they dropped the price 10% a few weeks ago and still haven't had any offers.
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2 As and a B
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mikepepler
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2 As and a B
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That is historically low.
For the financing, I guess it comes down to when you believe high interest rates are going to hit, whether we will have hyper-inflation, and how secure your family income will be - and on what the rest of the world will be doing (loans called in, house prices, vacant houses, etc) during all that financial and economic turmoil.
The ideal would be some hyperinflation whilst you are on the fixed rate and with inflation-linked family income, and then pay off the mortgage amount! However, fate being what it is...
For the financing, I guess it comes down to when you believe high interest rates are going to hit, whether we will have hyper-inflation, and how secure your family income will be - and on what the rest of the world will be doing (loans called in, house prices, vacant houses, etc) during all that financial and economic turmoil.
The ideal would be some hyperinflation whilst you are on the fixed rate and with inflation-linked family income, and then pay off the mortgage amount! However, fate being what it is...
I'm hippest, no really.
It does sound interesting, although a tad expensive for a 2 bed bungalow. Is it in a particularly good state of repair or would you need to do work to it? Try to find out about its insulation - cavity wall, windows double glazed etc. If it is a good sized plot - 1/3 of an acre - then that would be a plus?Is it freehold?
Sounds like it is in a pretty good position from a village and railway access perspective and the garden may be large enough to keep you in potatoes and veg for a significant portion of the year. I presume it is quite some distance from a densely populated city/ large town? And being hidden away is good too, although I would want to establish a hawthorn hedge or such like for privacy and security reasons.
Does it get sun all day long or is it shaded by the woods/other bungalows at all? Does it have a nice view? Just trying to trigger different things to think about.....
Ultimately there is no getting away from the fact that it is going to saddle you with debt for a couple of decades and it really depends how this fits in with your world view...... are you likely to come into any inheritance in that period of time that might help?
Good Luck with it - it sounds like you find it hard to resist and I can understand that - sometimes you have to grab opportunities and take a risk, as they might not occur again......
PS. Try to find out about the neighbours - any disputes? Do they have family? Are they into sustainability? See if there is a way to meet them (if you are going to put an offer on, then knock their doors and introduce yourselves!) - I think neighbours will be important if you go for the house. Maybe you can go in lower than the 250k? Although you have to be careful as it may turn the sellers against you if you go in too low. Have a chat with them and say you could offer 230, but you would be very pushed to do 250... then at least they won't think you are just trying to get if for a bargain!
Sounds like it is in a pretty good position from a village and railway access perspective and the garden may be large enough to keep you in potatoes and veg for a significant portion of the year. I presume it is quite some distance from a densely populated city/ large town? And being hidden away is good too, although I would want to establish a hawthorn hedge or such like for privacy and security reasons.
Does it get sun all day long or is it shaded by the woods/other bungalows at all? Does it have a nice view? Just trying to trigger different things to think about.....
Ultimately there is no getting away from the fact that it is going to saddle you with debt for a couple of decades and it really depends how this fits in with your world view...... are you likely to come into any inheritance in that period of time that might help?
Good Luck with it - it sounds like you find it hard to resist and I can understand that - sometimes you have to grab opportunities and take a risk, as they might not occur again......
PS. Try to find out about the neighbours - any disputes? Do they have family? Are they into sustainability? See if there is a way to meet them (if you are going to put an offer on, then knock their doors and introduce yourselves!) - I think neighbours will be important if you go for the house. Maybe you can go in lower than the 250k? Although you have to be careful as it may turn the sellers against you if you go in too low. Have a chat with them and say you could offer 230, but you would be very pushed to do 250... then at least they won't think you are just trying to get if for a bargain!
Real money is gold and silver
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kenneal - lagger
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I would be very tempted, Mike. You are unlikely to get planning on your woodland for a house and to live this close would be good for the security of your land. It's about the only way you are likely to get to live this close to your land.
The system could crawl onwards, as it's doing, for another ten years yet for all we know. But if it breaks, I would think that those having tenure of a property are going to get to keep it. Who's going to buy bank or building society debt if the whole system has gone down the pan? Possession is nine tenths of the law!
The only caveat I would put on my advise is to make sure the house is more than 20m above sea level. I'm sure that no action will be taken on CC to put a stop to the loss of the Greenland ice sheet.
The system could crawl onwards, as it's doing, for another ten years yet for all we know. But if it breaks, I would think that those having tenure of a property are going to get to keep it. Who's going to buy bank or building society debt if the whole system has gone down the pan? Possession is nine tenths of the law!
The only caveat I would put on my advise is to make sure the house is more than 20m above sea level. I'm sure that no action will be taken on CC to put a stop to the loss of the Greenland ice sheet.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
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biffvernon
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Bother. Mine's only 2 metres above sea level. (That means it below sea level at high tide.)kenneal wrote: The only caveat I would put on my advise is to make sure the house is more than 20m above sea level. I'm sure that no action will be taken on CC to put a stop to the loss of the Greenland ice sheet.
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biffvernon
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No. I think there is a high enough probability that my house will not be flooded during my lifetime that I intend to stay. The plans underway by the Environment Agency for the next 80 years are adequate to maintain the current level of protection even if sea level rises at the faster end of the probability range. The value of the land protected will ensure that the protection is maintained, so long as some semblance of the current civilisation continues. If it doesn't, well, all bets are off wherever you live and a periodically flooding marsh is probably as safe as anywhere as the zombie hordes are more dangerous than the waters.
Well IMO you will probably never get the chance to buy it again, so that has to be worth something, its worth more to you than probably any other viewers. Just dont let the Estate Agent know this..
if it all collapses, millions of people will have mortgages they also would be unable to pay, so if you think your jobs secure and you like the place, go for it
if it all collapses, millions of people will have mortgages they also would be unable to pay, so if you think your jobs secure and you like the place, go for it