Gas alert as demand and prices rise

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 16 Mar 2010, 19:41

clv101 wrote: I don't see how your "people in charge" comment relates to my comment.

It totally relates.
Keepz's comment is in a nutshell that he thinks the people who work in the industry know better and have things under control.

The subtext of your comment is that you know better than them.

I see this all the time on peak oil sites. I read a post on the oildrum the other day where a poster said "EROEI is junk science". I agree.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 16 Mar 2010, 23:04

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 17 Mar 2010, 09:33

fifthcolumn wrote:I see this all the time on peak oil sites. I read a post on the oildrum the other day where a poster said "EROEI is junk science". I agree.

Why do you think that EROEI is junk science, then?

Peter.

Post by **clv101** » 17 Mar 2010, 09:37

fifthcolumn wrote:
clv101 wrote: I don't see how your "people in charge" comment relates to my comment.
It totally relates.
Keepz's comment is in a nutshell that he thinks the people who work in the industry know better and have things under control.

The subtext of your comment is that you know better than them.

I see this all the time on peak oil sites. I read a post on the oildrum the other day where a poster said "EROEI is junk science". I agree.

Okay, you misunderstood my comment. I was not saying I knew better, of course I don't that's a daft thing to say. I'm saying Keepz's position is illogical, and that sometimes important things do go wrong.

Keepz · Post by **Keepz** » 18 Mar 2010, 17:58

clv101 wrote:
fifthcolumn wrote:
clv101 wrote: I don't see how your "people in charge" comment relates to my comment.
It totally relates.
Keepz's comment is in a nutshell that he thinks the people who work in the industry know better and have things under control.

The subtext of your comment is that you know better than them.

I see this all the time on peak oil sites. I read a post on the oildrum the other day where a poster said "EROEI is junk science". I agree.
Okay, you misunderstood my comment. I was not saying I knew better, of course I don't that's a daft thing to say. I'm saying Keepz's position is illogical, and that sometimes important things do go wrong.

I don't mean to say that people in the market are incapable of getting things wrong. I am saying that people who have a very strong motivation to get it right and therefore spend their professional lives analysing all the available information and applying the benefit of their experience (and some extremely sophisticated and expensive software) to making decisions based on that analysis, are more likely to get things right than are we on this forum, who for the most part are no more than interested spectators and don't have access to all the relevant information.

Even so, of course examples can be given of where individuals within the market have got things wrong. That's a problem for the individual concerned but not for consumers, since his competitors will be delighted to take the opportunity to fill the gap.

Examples can also be given of where a market as a whole has got things wrong. But there are many, many more examples of where Government intervention gets things wrong. Governments are less well informed than are market participants about the state of supply and demand, and their judgement is inevitably distorted by political factors and by tension between different policy objectives.

Neither markets nor regulators are perfect, but markets have a far better track record of efficiently matching supply with demand

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 20 Mar 2010, 09:17

The subtext of your comment is that you know better than them.

Almost every poster on the Web 'knows best'.

Understandable - but a bit wearing - especially when the poster is clearly a plank.

I'm beginning to feel that the Web is a tad overrated - and certainly a thief of time.

Couldn't do without it 'tho.

(I suppose that's what drug addicts say too ...)

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 29 Mar 2010, 10:23

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/6329

UK NG production is declining 15 -20% a year.

Imports from Europe are getting tight.

We are increasingly dependant on LNG.

We may have trouble refilling storage in time for next winter.

Total UK energy production is down 40% since 2000.

Post by **adam2** » 29 Mar 2010, 10:45

It would appear that the panic is over for this winter, the weather is warmer, and supplies of gas appear sufficient in the near term.

The article linked to above does however express very considerable concerns about NEXT winter.
In order to refill the storeage for next winter, the filling rate will have to be substantialy greater than in the past.

They note that domestic natural gas production has formerly declined at about 5% a year but is now falling at 17%
Not quite falling of a cliff, but a more rapid decline than anyone but hard core doomers expected.

Next winter might be mild, but if its like this one we could be in trouble.

Lets hope that we build some more wind turbines, and that it is windy !

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 29 Mar 2010, 11:09

Mild and windy often go together for winters, as do mild and wet.

Now, I've no link for this, but I remember reading somewhere that UK heating demand goes up as much with increasing wind speed as it does with decreasing temperature (that's because our houses are so drafty!)

JohnB · Post by **JohnB** » 29 Mar 2010, 11:21

RenewableCandy wrote:Now, I've no link for this, but I remember reading somewhere that UK heating demand goes up as much with increasing wind speed as it does with decreasing temperature (that's because our houses are so drafty!)

I know my van isn't a house, but I really find that. There are certainly times when I have a heater on to fight draughts, rather than because it's actually cold.

Cold weather, and snow, is forecast for this week!

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 29 Mar 2010, 13:38

RalphW wrote:http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/6329

UK NG production is declining 15 -20% a year.

Imports from Europe are getting tight.

We are increasingly dependant on LNG.

We may have trouble refilling storage in time for next winter.

Total UK energy production is down 40% since 2000.

The graphs in that link show a pretty dismal few years ahead. Its not too long before the canine excrement hits the ventilation device

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 29 Mar 2010, 19:45

In the North and West, we have a cold week ahead of us. Heavy sleet with me at the moment. 1.9c brrrr

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 29 Mar 2010, 21:12

Is it me or has this winter felt like its gone on forever!

For god sake warm up I am getting very depressed!!

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 29 Mar 2010, 22:02

Totally_Baffled wrote:Is it me or has this winter felt like its gone on forever!

Yes it has! I thought spring was here the other day but winter is hanging on by its nails.

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 30 Mar 2010, 00:13

Coldest, longest winter since 1962/63 round these parts........ just goes to prove that we can still get cold winters.....