Tipping Point

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 23 Mar 2010, 14:47

Have to disagree. It is the business model we have at the moment, but that can change overnight if the model changes.

They've been looking for a new one that'll work AND keep all the lobbies happy, for years. It's only Prez Sarko who can change models overnight.

stumuzz · Post by **stumuzz** » 23 Mar 2010, 15:11

If they try and do that they will fail. The logical thing about PO is the fact it doesn’t give a stuff about equality, disability, feminism, racism or just about any ‘ism’ there is. The people who have grasped PO are doing very well both financially and psychologically.

The lobbyists will be swimming against the tide very soon.

Sarko, you’ve got to admire him!

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 23 Mar 2010, 16:16

Sorry by lobbies I didn't mean those kind, I meant things like bankers and coal etc.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 23 Mar 2010, 16:45

Great article, been reading the comments by the Oil drum folks, some really interest points here.

1) I do think when the public/markets actually 'get' Peak Oil, that throws a massive new dynamic into the equation.

This is from Darwinian on oil exports, which I think is the most important factor and massive under-estimated by peak oil folks...

• We argue that one of the principle initial drivers of the collapse process will be growing visible action about peak oil. It is expected that investors will attempt to extract themselves from ‘virtual assets’ such as bond, equities, and cash and convert them into ‘real’ assets before the system collapses.

Yes, but I saw nothing of the greatest consequence when the world's oil exporters finally accept that oil supplies are declining... hording! Small exporters like Ecuador, will be the first to completely shut down exports. Large exporters like Russia will greatly trim exports in order to avoid running short themselves. Every country, even Saudi Arabia, while still exporting oil at exorbitant prices, will greatly reduce exports in order to save it for themselves.

This will turn a slow decline into a cliff. Oil exports, instead of dropping a normal 3 percent or so per year, will drop 10 to 20 percent per year. This will mean the world will not make an orderly economic descent but the world economy will suddenly crash. Globalization will collapse within a few months. Beyond that it becomes impossible to predict.

My other thoughts were that the report does under-estimate the potential mitigation responces, massive shift to coal or a hyper-austority regimes under martial law by Western governments with a priorties flow of strategic resources to national infrastacture, security apparatus, and agriculture.

My gut instinct is that we entering a era of three waves...

1) the 70s - high unemployment, stagflation, industrial unrest- we already in that phrase now

2) the 50s - era of austurity, goverment regulation, poverty for lots of people and high governmental role in the economy (through nationalisation or partnership with big buisness)

3) Edwardian era - era of 40/50% of population directly working in the agriculture sector, a hi-tech lifestlye for the rich and the affulent middle classes, massive social divisiions and a authoritarian style of democracy, more of a oligarchy

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 23 Mar 2010, 17:18

The King of Saudi has already said that he has ordered some oil to be kept for the grandchildren. Will the Yanks and Chinese accept that or go and take it for their, more important, immediate use?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 23 Mar 2010, 21:06

kenneal wrote:The King of Saudi has already said that he has ordered some oil to be kept for the grandchildren. Will the Yanks and Chinese accept that or go and take it for their, more important, immediate use?

There might not be enough to make it worth the effort - the Saudi king probably means his own grandchildren.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 23 Mar 2010, 21:43

Yes but hasn't he got hundreds of them or something??

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 25 Mar 2010, 08:46

mikepepler wrote:The "when" issue may have more to do with economics than oil I think. The question is: how much economic decline (or indiividual countires collapsing) is needed before the whole system breaks?

The other thing is the fear factor - I noted that in the summary of the report they said:
We argue that one of the principle initial drivers of the collapse process will be growing visible action about peak oil. It is expected that investors will attempt to extract themselves from "virtual assets"; such as bond, equities, and cash and convert them into "real" assets before the system collapses. But the nominal value of virtual assets vastly exceeds the real assets likely to be available. Confirmation of the peak oil idea (by official action), fear, and market decline will drive a positive feedback in financial markets.

Don't you think that the same process would drive investment in mitigation measures?

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 25 Mar 2010, 12:09

Read the summary and skimmed over the rest. Couple of comments:

I sure agree that there will be an end to the world as we know it. 100% certainty for that one. I also agree that there is a high probability for a rather messy transition to a world without fossil energy.

Apart from that I think those FEASTA people are just another buch of worrywarts. Misantropes looking for troubles to fulfill their misantropic fantasies. Unfortunately the PeakOil 'movement' is is suffering from a rather agressive infestation of those worrywarts.

I mean, look, they talk about 'planning' for this transition. How stupid. Nobody planned the current world, what kind of hubris does it take to imagine that you can plan the transition away from it? Just as stupid as the US 'preppers', only with a little altruistic twitch at the end.

Look at the world of 1890. That world collapsed almost completely. Kings, emperors, jobs, food, clothes, tools - everything is gone. And all the people inhabitating that world died! The same thing will happen to our world. And to us.

Knowledge about PeakOil and credit-and-interest based currencies has helped me to interpret the world around me, fine. But I dont think I will have a better chance than anybody else to get trough the transition with dignity and comfort intact.

I'm happy to smoke a little weed and taking a bike ride from time to time. My new girlfriend has the body of an 18 year old and the filthy mind of a 50 year old. Nice fix for now. Apart from that, why let worries destroy a nice sunny day? Even a cold and rainy day can be pleasant.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 25 Mar 2010, 13:10

That's deep bro.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 25 Mar 2010, 13:33

I reckon our bro has smoked a little too much weed.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 25 Mar 2010, 13:46

biffvernon wrote:I reckon our bro has smoked a little too much weed.

Maybe it was you who had to little?

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 25 Mar 2010, 14:08

I'm with you MacG

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 25 Mar 2010, 14:49

Is your girlfriend coming to the Green Gathering is August? And you of course,

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 25 Mar 2010, 15:00

MacG wrote:Look at the world of 1890. That world collapsed almost completely. Kings, emperors, jobs, food, clothes, tools - everything is gone. And all the people inhabitating that world died! The same thing will happen to our world. And to us.

'Course in 1890 they had all that new fangled computer driven "just in time" delivery services and their food came from all over the world to a central distribution depot before being trucks out to the shops. There were so many people that there was only just enough land to feed every one. Coal and minerals weren't near the surface any more they were 5000 ft deep in open caste mines. People had jobs which were so far away from food production that when the shops ran out they couldn't grow their own, even if they had a bit of land, etc.!!! And all the people "inhabitating" that world died!

Get back down on the girlfriend, MacG or stick your head in the sand again. It seems to have the same effect on you.