Tipping Point

[mikepepler]

Just read this on TOD: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6309

The report is by FEASTA and the Risk/Resiliance Network, and covers the near-term systemic implications of peak oil, including the possibility of a collapse.

The full report is here: http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Tipping%20Point.pdf and I'm just reading it now...

[snow hope]

That is one powerful summary!

It confirms my worst fears and is more or less what I think will evolve or be most likely to unfold.

I will be interested to hear why people think differently........

[Kentucky Fried Panda]

The big question is still when?

[mikepepler]

I wish I hadn't come across this report just a few days after finishing Patriots ( http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... hp?t=13885 )

I'm ploughing through it now. First thing I've just realised I'd never appreciated before is the difference between the oil produced and the oil available to society. Sure, I knew about EROEI, and that it used to be higher for oil than it is now, and will be lower still in future. But I'd not put 2 and 2 together and realised that the result is that the decline in avaialable oil is potentially a *lot* steeper than that in rpoduced oil, especially as the years go by (section 2.4 - 2.5 in report).

[PS_RalphW]

When indeed.

I suspect we will see a fairly gradual wind back of total energy energy flows, globally, but we will see sharp collapses in certain countries and economic areas.

For example, Greece seems to be going into a sharp depression. Iceland and Latvia are already there. Airlines are an economic sector likely to contract rapidly as one airline after another goes broke. How long as BA got?

The world's central banks will move heaven and hell to keep the semblance of BAU as long as possible. It is depressingly easy in the modern world to deceive people about their economic future, we (collectively have such short term memories and are so easily distracted by bread and circuses.)

I do not see large scale collapse in less than 10 years. The world has a huge sunk cost in the infrastructure of modern industrial society. We can be living from the benefits of this for decades to come if we cut maintenance budgets to the absolute bone. My own continued employment is a source of wonder to me. I am the sole survivor of a team of seven holding the infrastructure of my organisation together.

We may see the first electricity cuts in the UK in as little as 5 years. After that, decline will be more rapid, as it may be the 'emperor's new clothes' moment.

[mikepepler]

The "when" issue may have more to do with economics than oil I think. The question is: how much economic decline (or indiividual countires collapsing) is needed before the whole system breaks?

The other thing is the fear factor - I noted that in the summary of the report they said:

We argue that one of the principle initial drivers of the collapse process will be growing visible action about peak oil. It is expected that investors will attempt to extract themselves from "virtual assets"; such as bond, equities, and cash and convert them into "real" assets before the system collapses. But the nominal value of virtual assets vastly exceeds the real assets likely to be available. Confirmation of the peak oil idea (by official action), fear, and market decline will drive a positive feedback in financial markets.

[snow hope]

I would be very relieved if I thought we still had 10 years..... as it is I just don't see how the (various) supply chains will hold together that long - simply too many dependancies in my view..... one or two links break and bang - systemic crash.....

[mikepepler]

Just finished reading the whole thing. It's pretty gloomy stuff, but unfortunately the arguments seem quite strong to me.

Perhaps someone would like to argue otherwise and cheer us all up?

[kenneal - lagger]

Just finished reading the whole thing. It's pretty gloomy stuff, but unfortunately the arguments seem quite strong to me.

Perhaps someone would like to argue otherwise and cheer us all up?

Where's RGR or fifthcolumn when you need them?

[adam2]

Just finished reading the whole thing. It's pretty gloomy stuff, but unfortunately the arguments seem quite strong to me.

Perhaps someone would like to argue otherwise and cheer us all up?

Agree, gloomy but I fear ultimatly accurate.
The report lays much stress not only on PO but also on the increasing complexity of todays society, which increases the risks of of a sudden crash.

[PS_RalphW]

RGR is over at TOD, preening about how brilliant he is.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6310

[Mitch]

I personally am planning for 2012 for the first real signs - doubt I'll be ready though, don't think I will ever be ready
Really hope I am wrong by a factor of at least 10! Another 20 or so years would suit me just fine - not my kid's though............

[stumuzz]

I have had a look at the summary and its seems quite logical but also tends to ignore the survival instinct,our ability to adapt and that most people are head down shoulder to wheel trying to make a living by either digging holes, driving a forklift truck or working in tesco’s. When they switch on about energy taking 70% of their income they will do something about it.

Quote.‘’Our civilisation is structurally unstable to an energy withdrawal’’

I have to disagree with this.When I found out about PO I reduced energy use in my home by about 60%. It was not difficult or needed any above average intelligence. Similarly my office energy has been reduced by more than 100%. I shut it down and opened a home office.

Quote “access to increasing flows of concentrated energy, which can be transformed into work and dispersed energy, is the foundation upon which our civilisation stands”

Have to disagree. It is the business model we have at the moment, but that can change overnight if the model changes. Once energy saving and no carbon solutions to extant needs becomes the flavour of the month, then society will change and quickly. This is not some psychological defence which I’m using to run way from the truth, but rather what I did at work yesterday. We helped a company get out of a huge amount of environmental laws and international agreements by replacing a hazardous chemical in their process with an inert water based solution which they can reuse. It is saving them huge amounts of money in bought in chemical, effluent discharge fees, monitoring and compliance. This is happening everyday. Environmental laws ( PO related laws) are having an impact now. In ten years time waste will be a thing of the past. Just look at the domestic waste collections now to what they were ten years ago.
However, this will disappoint a lot of people who were rather looking forward to anarchy/back to the land/eschew modernism/rich will become poor/horses replace cars. I could go on.

Quote. “It has locked us into hyper- complex economic and social processes that are increasing our vulnerability, but which we are unable to alter without risking a collapse in those same welfare supporting structures”

I heard this about the crash/depression/bailing out the banks/credit crunch,systemic failure etc. The sun still came up the next morning. We are still here living the most privileged existence since man evolved.

[mikepepler]

There's still the issue of how we exit from a financial system with interest on debt, requiring growth every year. It seems to me that this is the key point in the report - without action on this problem our global financial system collapses, and then the rest follows.

I'd like to think that governments would realise this globally and do something to replace the system we have before it's too late, but I can't see it happening...

[Ippoippo]

Got to about page 11 at the moment.... need cheering up

Actually, pretty good reading, so I'm ploughing on (beats work, a bit quiet at the moment anyway)