UK Gas and Electricity Crisis Looming

[Totally_Baffled]

Yep I know what you mean , I thought we had got away with it too!

I think the mild December / January has meant we wont at least "run out", but we are still exposed to very high prices.

What do you reckon Clv (the holder of the numbers ! )

[clv101]

What do you reckon Clv (the holder of the numbers ! )

I think this is the warmest January I've ever experienced. Haven't had a single frost this year yet. So yeah, I don't think it's possible to 'run out' of storage now. Even at maximum extraction rates the long term storage will last until late March.

That still doesn't help the fact that we can't meet the daily demand on a day with average temperatures below zero though without taking pretty much all the CCGT offline. Like peak oil, our local gas situation is all about the flow rates rather than reserves. We?ve had one such day so far, the 29th ? we managed okay since demand was low due to Christmas week.

Looking at the demand this week, tomorrows daily demand is forecast a full 100 mcm, 25% below 'normal' which is significantly below National Grids 'warm' demand curve. We're warmer than warm.

Lucky!

[RevdTess]

I'm enjoying the warm winter too, and am not looking forward to the expected cold Feb, even if it does make the energy markets (and therefore my job) more interesting.

[Bozzio]

I think this is the warmest January I've ever experienced. Haven't had a single frost this year yet.

Maybe the monthly 'averages' will show January to be mild but for those who often work outside, as I do, I have experienced at least 4 frosts so far this year. It has certainly been cold down my way - much colder than last January. I believe it was -3 degrees C last week in Bath.

Feb is always worst.

[mikepepler]

I notice from the national grid DSR ( http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/dsr/ ) that demand has been around or above normal for the last few days now. As a result we've been drawing a lot of gas out of storage, and there've been more interruptions to supply, three times larger than the those at Christmas. It's also noticeable that they're letting linepack fall rather than taking gas out of the short-term storage. I guess they're assuming they can bring the linepack back up in a few days time.

I think we've been very lucky this winter so far.

[Totally_Baffled]

I think you are right mike, we have been really lucky.

I believe it is due to get mild again next week (It was a 10 day forecast that I looked at so it could be miles out!).

That means we are 2 weeks into February and we have escaped any countrywide sustained freezing/snowy conditons! What a result!

From March I believe the average temperature starts to get into double figures so gas demand starts to decline.

Only next year to look forward to! but then hey we have the Norwegian gas onboard !

What happened to the Siberian winter??

[biffvernon]

What do the blue spikes actually mean?

[johnhemming]

The spikes are when those with interruptible contracts are switched off.
(could be those with firm contracts as well, but unlikely).

[biffvernon]

Yes, but what does that actually mean. Were companies supplies actually cut, which companies, how many, how long, what impact, if any, did this have?

[mikepepler]

Another interesting point to note as of this evening is that the first significant withdrawl from short-range storage was made today. Not a lot, just down from 100% to 97%. It's a good job the interconnector is flowing strongly...

[Ballard]

Well, according to the Met, winter is over and that means no gas crisis.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 0&refer=uk

So, I might not need those two sticks I'd put aside to rub together. Hmm, better keep them for next winter, just in case.

[skeptik]

Well, according to the Met, winter is over and that means no gas crisis.

Excellent. Now lets have a few weeks of solid rain to avoid the traditional summer hosepipe ban and tapwater that tastes like rustbucket and swimming pool...

[mikepepler]

A bit of LNG news here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... o&refer=uk

Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Statoil ASA are among liquefied natural gas producers that may miss output targets and worsen a scarcity of the fuel because of insufficient construction staff.

The shortage of engineers and other workers plus higher materials prices led to a 30 percent jump in building costs for new LNG plants over two years, Frank Harris at Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd. estimated. That may delay startups and worsen a ``tight'' market through 2010, he said.

[Ballard]

Being in the industry I would say that that about 90% of construction projects run over budget and behind schedule.

[biffvernon]

Comical Malki (aka our energy minister) said on the radio this afternoon following the EU gas price report that he wasn't expecting prices to drop now as a result, but then spoilt it by adding that he "wasn't saying the prices won't come lower in a few years time".
I think, having worked through an excess of negatives, that he was suggesting that the price of gas was going to get lower over the next few years. Dunno what he was on.