This bumper 28 minute show breaks an exclusive interview with a senior engineer from Mexican state oil company Pemex, who says "the days of the Mexican super giants are over."
He claims Pemex is in the "doorway of depletion" and "in the middle of the Hubbert curve." Hear this amazing interview online now...
We also talk to Bruce Evers of Investec and Frederic Lasserre of Societe Generale on the current mini bear market, record short positions, warm weather in the USA and American `demand destruction`. What is it that is driving prices back down into the mid fifty dollar range?
Listen here
Oilcast #28: Pemex engineer `We are in Hubbert curve`
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Mexico Cantarell field to decline at 10-20% pa
This is some really interesting news. It adds more creditability to the idea that Mexico is peaking now but also suggests the rate of decline to be very rapid indeed. To the honest this shouldn't come as a surprise, Cantarell has been expertly managed to extract ~68% of the fields URR before the flow rate decreases yet this also guarantees a very rapid decline.
This is important since Mexico is the worlds 5th largest oil producer and America's number two exporter (after Canada) sending 90% of its export volume to the US.
America has a problem, see from this graph what a 15% pa decline at Cantarell does to Mexican exports:
I've written about it here: http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/12/43
This is important since Mexico is the worlds 5th largest oil producer and America's number two exporter (after Canada) sending 90% of its export volume to the US.
America has a problem, see from this graph what a 15% pa decline at Cantarell does to Mexican exports:
I've written about it here: http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/12/43
http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/20 ... 12329.htmlAn internal study reviewed by The Wall Street Journal shows water and gas are encroaching more quickly than expected in Cantarell, Mexico's biggest oil field, and might cause output to drop precipitously over the next few years.
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
Who's more credible, their CFO or the unnamed 'senior engineer' that OilCast spoke to last year?'I am confident in Pemex's portfolio of assets. Other fields will be able to substitute (Cantarell's output) and increase production,' Juan Jose Suarez Coppel, the company's chief financial officer, said in an interview.