Why The Tories Won’t Win The 2010 Election

[clv101]

The media and the bookies suggest a Tory win is inevitable. I’m not so sure. Cameron needs to gain a massive 131 seats (based on today’s parliament) just for an unworkable majority of one. Assuming that the backlash against Westminster is likely to favour the small national parties and independents, it’s a tall order. A hung parliament is more likely, and in my opinion no bad thing.

I've blogged about it here:
http://chrisvernon.co.uk/2010/02/why-th ... -election/

What I don't really understand is why co much commentary seems to regard it as inevitable. A self fulfilling prophesy?

[Blue Peter]

A hung parliament is more likely, and in my opinion no bad thing.

My understanding is that all those foreigners whom we want to buy our debt are a tad nervous about our financial situation. A degree of resolve is necessary to deal with it. But the inevitable horse-trading that a hung parliament would require would make taking difficult measures very unlikely, and so, it is generally seen as a bad thing,


Peter.

[clv101]

Doesn't a coalition government - like we had during WWII make it easier to take difficult decisions? Wasn't the whole reason for having an all-party coalition during war to make it easier to make hard decisions without party politics getting in the way?

[Blue Peter]

Doesn't a coalition government - like we had during WWII make it easier to take difficult decisions? Wasn't the whole reason for having an all-party coalition during war to make it easier to make hard decisions without party politics getting in the way?

I don't think that it will be an all-party coalition, though. It will be two out of 3 parties (LibDems + Tory/Lab), with all 3 parties thinking that it will fall apart within 6 months so that they need to position themselves for the consequent election. And, as you can see from the run up to this one, telling people that things might get a little worse is not seen as the way to go,


Peter.

[contadino]

The media and the bookies suggest a Tory win is inevitable. I’m not so sure. Cameron needs to gain a massive 131 seats (based on today’s parliament) just for an unworkable majority of one. Assuming that the backlash against Westminster is likely to favour the small national parties and independents, it’s a tall order. A hung parliament is more likely, and in my opinion no bad thing.

I've blogged about it here:
http://chrisvernon.co.uk/2010/02/why-th ... -election/

What I don't really understand is why co much commentary seems to regard it as inevitable. A self fulfilling prophesy?

Maybe the Bilderberg Group has already decided who will win the next election, and it is the job of their members (media & political) to tell us, and make the vote go their way.

[Quintus]

Do the Conservatives actually want to win? Imagine the impact of crushing public spending cuts, rising unemployment, inflation and taxes ... on an electorate that has enjoyed 12+ years of boom-time.

If the Tories get in with a small majority (or lead a minority government alongside the LibDems) is there any possibility of them getting re-elected in 2014-15? If I recall British political history correctly only one austerity government has ever got re-elected (Thatcher riding the popularity of the Falklands victory).

Good election for a party to lose?

Point of information: I'm voting for a hung parliament.

[goslow]

Doesn't a coalition government - like we had during WWII make it easier to take difficult decisions? Wasn't the whole reason for having an all-party coalition during war to make it easier to make hard decisions without party politics getting in the way?

I agree. Germany always seemed to be a fairly well run place since 1945. They have PR and every government has been a coalition.

I do find it strange that people associate PR with hung parliments though. Its perfectly possible to get hung parliments with our FPTP system, and this has happened quite a few times with minority/low majority governments supported e.g. by the liberals or the ulster unionists. Its just a matter of how the votes add up. They talk about FPTP giving the ability to kick out unpopular goverments and MPs, but this is often as a result of tactical voting.

[Quintus]

I agree. Germany always seemed to be a fairly well run place since 1945. They have PR and every government has been a coalition.

Yep - and which are the best governed countries in Europe? Germany? Nordic countries? Benelux countries? Switzerland? PR and minority governments most of the time, I believe.

Coalitions appear to be particularly effective at long-term planning and commitment.

[2 As and a B]

My understanding is that all those foreigners whom we want to buy our debt are a tad nervous about our financial situation. A degree of resolve is necessary to deal with it. But the inevitable horse-trading that a hung parliament would require would make taking difficult measures very unlikely, and so, it is generally seen as a bad thing,

But who are providing this view? Are they impartial? I doubt that the LibDems would agree with the commentary but I can well see how Labour and the Conservatives would encourage it!

[madibe]

I think I may have mentioned this before - simplez...

As with Obama, the opposition really dont want to win. The sh*t is clogging up the fan and that is a good time to be the rear guard; criticising and suggesting, but without any real need to take the can.

Question: would you want to be in power now, or would you rather be in opposition? (Meglomaniacs need not apply)

Also, as an aside... there is the Margaret Thatcher un-appreciation society, which is alive and kicking in the Midlands and North. Her legacy continues to have a 'negative energy impact'. I.e. loads of working class think that the conservatives are a bunch of... no, I cant say it...

[clv101]

...Margaret Thatcher un-appreciation society, which is alive and kicking in the Midlands and North. Her legacy continues to have a 'negative energy impact'.

She's an elderly lady (84), without mincing words she is likely to die at some point over the next few years.

What impact would her death have, if any? It's hard to speak ill of the dead. The mainstream media will run a week of tributes and legacy, of course focusing on the perceived positive impact she had on Britain.

I can only see this being positive for the Conservative Party. If it comes within a few months of either this election or the next would it be a significant factor or not?

[Aurora]

Personally, I can't wait to dance on the divisive bitch's grave.

'Don't forget to tell Sid', my arse.

We're paying the price for all of the evil witch's privatisation policies now alright. Arghhh!!!

Once again, for those of you too young or stupid to remember:

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... est+forget

[/rant]

[snow hope]

Yes, I remember marching against her policies as a student in the early eighties. I hated Maggie Thatcher!

[Aurora]

Yes, I remember marching against her policies as a student in the early eighties. I hated Maggie Thatcher!

+1. Her arrogance knew no bounds and as for that strange waddle .....

The Guardian - 30/01/10

the Tory leader steeled herself for the 1979 general election with a crash diet that featured no fewer than 28 eggs a week.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010 ... nline-eggs

..... I think the poor bitch was egg-bound!

[UndercoverElephant]

Doesn't a coalition government - like we had during WWII make it easier to take difficult decisions? Wasn't the whole reason for having an all-party coalition during war to make it easier to make hard decisions without party politics getting in the way?

I don't think that it will be an all-party coalition, though. It will be two out of 3 parties (LibDems + Tory/Lab), with all 3 parties thinking that it will fall apart within 6 months so that they need to position themselves for the consequent election

I agree with the general drift of this comment, but I think there's another factor. The demographic and political changes which have led to the high probability of a hung parliament are not temporary. This is a not a situation where the two main parties are neck-and-neck and that is why we are heading for a HP. Instead, there has been a well-established trend of the two main parties losing ground against the smaller parties. A hung parliament now can only accelerate this process. The net result is that even if the coalition falls apart after 6 months, there is no guarantee that a subsequent election would produce an overall majority for either of the two big parties. I think it would be more likely to go the other way - towards an even more hung parliament.

What happens then? I think it means British politics changes forever.