How hardcore are your preparations?

[the_lyniezian]

Bearing this in mind, I might ask as to what extent it is necessary to prepare, and how? The thing is, it is one thing to prepare for a gradual transition to an oil-scarce future, quite another trying to anticipate a major crash.

I have thught of some things that might count as preparations, but only very, very minor ones. Namely having got a wind-up radio (suposed to be an emergency thing with a light and siren as well- probably less use when our great and wise governmet turns off analogue radi in 5 years time, but I'm hoping shortwave radio will still be active internationally) and a rather lousy solar battery charger. My mother has been growing a few vegetables and tomatoes, and we do know some people who have some fruit tres in the back garden, so I suppose we might have something as a standby.

Personally I would wish there was an option on that poll for "not much as yet, but needs to do more, though is a little skeptical of some of the survivalist stuff".

[RogueMale]

Joking apart, it's likely that there are no other intelligent civilizations in the galaxy. Doubtless there were others in the past, and will be others in the future.

Shurely you mean the universe? The galaxy's small for other life to be guaranteed within it. But otherwise I agree, especially in the future, after we've gone.

I meant galaxy. And it's quite large as galaxies go, containing roughly 200,000,000,000 stars.

But if the galaxy were teeming with intelligent life now, they'd already have made contact: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox. They haven't, and we in turn won't, and here's probably why: http://www.well.com/~davidu/onechance.html.

The universe is hardly likely to be 'teeming' but my money is on life existing. Neither of those theories eliminate the chance of life - which is far more important than any contact between them, devastatingly amazing though that would be.

Either advanced civilizations are incredibly rare and we're just lucky (in which case we should value our own continued existence far more than we do), or it's common but short-lived (in which case we should do whatever it takes to keep it going). If the latter, it's likely that advanced civilizations have been popping in and out of existence quite frequently, with no more than about one (us) at any given time. The universe is probably infinite in size (though the further away you look, the further back in time you see, and you can only see back as far as the Big Bang. So the universe would certainly contain plenty of other advanced civilizations too far away from us to make contact, even if they're incredibly rare locally.

I'm guessing advanced civilizations are short-lived, and that we haven't passed through the Great Filter (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_filter) yet, because all civilizations on Earth except so far this one have been transient.

One other data point. I once attended a seminar on an artificial life environment called Tierra, and I asked the speaker whether Tierra's life forms ever evolved sexual reproduction. His answer was yes, they had, and it involved living organisms incorporating bits of genome from dead organisms into their own genome (i.e. necrophilia!). Based on this, sexual reproduction seems ruled out as the Great Filter.

[emordnilap]

Good grief, this lyniezian troll is far more annoying than RGR ever was. Please STOP with the God stuff, and take your tedious proselytising to a religious forum.

Considering I was expressing my opinion as regards to my personal cirumstances, and then defending myself when criticised, I think this is a tad unfair. Yes, I do think it right to share my faith wherever I am, since I beleive that firstly it is whrong to separate one's faith from other areas of life, secondly it is a message that needs to be heard (although perhapswhat I have been saying here is not the real message).

That is not the sole reason I am here, which is what would make me a "troll", not simply because I am expressing a view you don't like. I am as concerned by the Peak Oil problem as much as any here, just a somewhat uncertain as to what good certain preparations will be.

You are entitled to your personal opinion and your right to express it.

[There's always a 'but']

Bearing in mind that the vast majority of the great fúck-ups in humankind's history have been and continue to be as a direct result of organised religion, you would be well advised to keep your your 'faith' to yourself.

[stumuzz]

Let the fella have his say. We all come at peak oil from different perspectives, just think how many opinions on approaches to peak oil there on this forum viz.

Peak oil and vegetarianism
Peak oil and run to the hills
Peak oil and run to another country
Peak oil and the fair allocation of carbon allowances (socialism)
Peak oil ludditeism ( lets go back to the horse and cart)
Peak oil and urban living ( community gardens)
Peak oil and safety in numbers ( transition towns)
Peak oil and like minded communities ( someone to look after me in my old age)
Peak oil and ecology ( lets stop industry in its tracks and save the insects)
Peak oil and stop people flying
Peak oil and bicycles ( lets get men to wear stupid trousers and funny shaped hats and work in IT)
In fact everyone on this forum will come at peak oil with a particular axe to grind or message to promote. As readers of this forum we(I) ignore what we do not agree with and take on board those things which compliment our world view.
So why is peak oil and religion such anathema ?

[adam2]

My preperations are not just for peak oil.
PO, though serious, should be a relatively gradual transition to a lower energy future, depletion rates are open to debate but unlikely to exceed a few percent a year.
Remember that oil is still being discovered, though at a lower rate than we are consuming it.

My concerns are, in rough order of likely hood
Extreme weather, remember the recent floods ? might be worse next time.
A great financial crash, may have already started.
Industrial disputes in utilities or key industries, imagine a return to the rota power cuts of the 1970s !
Utilities breakdown or failure, remember the great Dartford power cut.
War in the Middle East resulting in a sudden drop in oil supplies, much more sudden than natural depletion
Civil disturbance, large scale rioting or other disorder in the UK making it unsafe to go out.

For any of the above, stocks of food, fuel, blankets, warm clothing, etc would be valuable, as would be off grid means of heating, cooking, and lighting.

[caspian]

So why is peak oil and religion such anathema ?

Because there's no obvious connection between those two subjects, unlike the other subjects you mentioned. You might as well start a discussion about peak oil and unicorns. Lyniezian is a self-described evangelical and simply can't resist any opportunity to ram God down everyone's throats. It's unnecessarily divisive and bad form. Unfortunately, that's what evangelicals do - they just can't help themselves. And like the Terminator, they just keep coming back, regardless of what you do or say to them.

And don't get me started on missionaries.

[caspian]

Indeed. It was Lyniezian's first post in this thread that really got me going:

Trusting in the Lord rather than the food store or the price of gold, and learning to live more with less is probably a better bet.

The second part of that quote is something I'm sure we can all agree on, but the idea of leaving it up to the big guy upstairs seems to be totally neglectful of personal responsibility. Why bother doing anything at all if you think God will sort it out in the end?

[RenewableCandy]

Let the fella have his say. We all come at peak oil from different perspectives, just think how many opinions on approaches to peak oil there on this forum viz.

Peak oil and vegetarianism
Peak oil and run to the hills
Peak oil and run to another country
Peak oil and the fair allocation of carbon allowances (socialism)
Peak oil ludditeism ( lets go back to the horse and cart)
Peak oil and urban living ( community gardens)
Peak oil and safety in numbers ( transition towns)
Peak oil and like minded communities ( someone to look after me in my old age)
Peak oil and ecology ( lets stop industry in its tracks and save the insects)
Peak oil and stop people flying
Peak oil and bicycles

...
This is true, but none of these are as absolutizt as religious fundamentalism. And none of the people who express them is (was) quite as pushy about it.

[stumuzz]

Let the fella have his say. We all come at peak oil from different perspectives, just think how many opinions on approaches to peak oil there on this forum viz.

Peak oil and vegetarianism
Peak oil and run to the hills
Peak oil and run to another country
Peak oil and the fair allocation of carbon allowances (socialism)
Peak oil ludditeism ( lets go back to the horse and cart)
Peak oil and urban living ( community gardens)
Peak oil and safety in numbers ( transition towns)
Peak oil and like minded communities ( someone to look after me in my old age)
Peak oil and ecology ( lets stop industry in its tracks and save the insects)
Peak oil and stop people flying
Peak oil and bicycles

...
This is true, but none of these are as absolutizt as religious fundamentalism. And none of the people who express them is (was) quite as pushy about it.

Point taken, but those who do not believe in AGW face full on abuse, ridicule ,lack of funding etc which mirrors many a fundamentalism.

[emordnilap]

Let the fella have his say. We all come at peak oil from different perspectives, just think how many opinions on approaches to peak oil there on this forum viz.

Peak oil and vegetarianism
Peak oil and run to the hills
Peak oil and run to another country
Peak oil and the fair allocation of carbon allowances (socialism)
Peak oil ludditeism ( lets go back to the horse and cart)
Peak oil and urban living ( community gardens)
Peak oil and safety in numbers ( transition towns)
Peak oil and like minded communities ( someone to look after me in my old age)
Peak oil and ecology ( lets stop industry in its tracks and save the insects)
Peak oil and stop people flying
Peak oil and bicycles

...
This is true, but none of these are as absolutizt as religious fundamentalism. And none of the people who express them is (was) quite as pushy about it.

Point taken, but those who do not believe in AGW face full on abuse, ridicule ,lack of funding etc which mirrors many a fundamentalism.

stumuzz, you have hit the nail on the head there. Unintentionally. Well done.

[the_lyniezian]

Indeed. It was Lyniezian's first post in this thread that really got me going:

Trusting in the Lord rather than the food store or the price of gold, and learning to live more with less is probably a better bet.

The second part of that quote is something I'm sure we can all agree on, but the idea of leaving it up to the big guy upstairs seems to be totally neglectful of personal responsibility. Why bother doing anything at all if you think God will sort it out in the end?

Why then did God give us any skills and abilities, and a mind to figure out what we can practically do? I didn't put in that caveat in a subsequent post for no reason.

Why I said precisely what I said is because those are precisely the sort of things we cannot necessarily take as certainties- and in the sense of being potentially targeted by thieves hoarding might well put one at risk. I suspect it might be the case for those making more hardcore preparations to some extent- not everyone is going to be able to have their smallholding in the country where they can experiment with sustainable living, for example, but at least it is trying to provide a model for post-peak living.

Rather than clutching at straws, best to describe what is the real root cause of the problem- much of which is down to trying to have that which we do not need, and using up resources far quicker than we can sustain. If we are in for hard times, we will have to make do with less- no question of that.

The title of this thread, anyway, is implying what are each of our individual preparations- just to say waht we are doing, not necessarily a debate. These are my views, take them or leave them. I appreciate the concern those have that it is likely to lead to idleness or fatalism, and I appreciate my views are not for everyone. Even Jesus said one must count the cost if one was to follow Him. But I would hope God really can provide, and if I can convince a few people alng the way, so much the better. It is for you to decide.

[JohnB]

Why then did God give us any skills and abilities, and a mind to figure out what we can practically do?

The problem with this question is that since God became something that humans started to believe in, we have discovered that humans have only existed for a tiny fraction of history, and are the latest stage of evolution from very basic forms of life that has taken billions of years. So God didn't create humans.

God creating man was a good explanation a couple of thousand years ago, but has been overtaken by a more convincing explanation.

As another PS member whose name I forget has in his signature, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"

[contadino]

Why then did God give us any skills and abilities, and a mind to figure out what we can practically do? I didn't put in that caveat in a subsequent post for no reason.

Why I said precisely what I said is because those are precisely the sort of things we cannot necessarily take as certainties- and in the sense of being potentially targeted by thieves hoarding might well put one at risk. I suspect it might be the case for those making more hardcore preparations to some extent- not everyone is going to be able to have their smallholding in the country where they can experiment with sustainable living, for example, but at least it is trying to provide a model for post-peak living.

Rather than clutching at straws, best to describe what is the real root cause of the problem- much of which is down to trying to have that which we do not need, and using up resources far quicker than we can sustain. If we are in for hard times, we will have to make do with less- no question of that.

The title of this thread, anyway, is implying what are each of our individual preparations- just to say waht we are doing, not necessarily a debate. These are my views, take them or leave them. I appreciate the concern those have that it is likely to lead to idleness or fatalism, and I appreciate my views are not for everyone. Even Jesus said one must count the cost if one was to follow Him. But I would hope God really can provide, and if I can convince a few people alng the way, so much the better. It is for you to decide.

Maybe God just made the lazy, dumb, gullible people. The rest of us just evolved.

[the_lyniezian]

So why is peak oil and religion such anathema ?

Because there's no obvious connection between those two subjects, unlike the other subjects you mentioned. You might as well start a discussion about peak oil and unicorns. Lyniezian is a self-described evangelical and simply can't resist any opportunity to ram God down everyone's throats. It's unnecessarily divisive and bad form. Unfortunately, that's what evangelicals do - they just can't help themselves. And like the Terminator, they just keep coming back, regardless of what you do or say to them.

And don't get me started on missionaries.

Well perhaps I may go overboard a little... but I cannot promise that I will not say it, or that you will like it. I will after this post not try to prolong this any further at least on this thread.

But nevertheless, you claim that the two subjects have no connection. I disagree. There is a lot in the Bible which can be brought to bear on the subject, whether it be in the matter of the evils of greed and over-dependence on material things, even to matters of not destroying the environment (albeit perhaps simple things such as not destroying trees when razing enemy territory or leaving the land fallow every few years to avoid wearing it out, not mowing the edges of your field (the importance of which is only recently being re-learned) etc.) which are issues which can and are brought to bear on this topic.

And missionaries, by the way, do some things which can be recognisabley good, including humanitarian work and more.

[contadino]

Good grief, this lyniezian troll is far more annoying than RGR ever was. Please STOP with the God stuff, and take your tedious proselytising to a religious forum.

He's expressing an opinion that is entirely relevant to the topic under discussion.

The relationship between PO and religion is at best highly tenuous.

It makes me laugh how people who rail against religious intolerance can write stuff like this without any sense of irony.

He's been asked nicely, several times, by different people to desist preaching. Those requests have been ignored. So who's being intolerant?