Floods: 1 in a hundred year event within 4 years!

enso · Post by **enso** » 21 Nov 2009, 10:33

Well, 1 in 1000 years is probably correct but as Adam2 points out there is a big problem in trying to communicate to the public what that actually means. The media are pretty hopeless as expected let alone at then placing this in the context of climate change.

Taking the 1 in 100 year flood (used as the benchmark event in England and Wales) this is the event that based on the available data would occur on average once every hundred years. Or a 1% chance in any single year. It is quite possible, as you say Adam2, that a flood of this size or greater could recur within a shorter timescale. Over a 30 year period there is a 26% chance that this same flood would occur at least once.

Biff - you are absolutely spot on about there being "forests and forests". Drainage in intensive plantations has often been responsible for increasing runoff thereby completely negating the much smaller attenuating that the tree cover provides. Apparently the Forestry Commission are now planting up new areas as you described with water management being seen as one of the benefits for the reasons you observed.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 21 Nov 2009, 11:26

We also need beavers.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 21 Nov 2009, 20:56

biffvernon wrote:We also need beavers.

I don't think anyone would argue with you there.

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 21 Nov 2009, 21:20

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 21 Nov 2009, 21:32

SunnyJim · Post by **SunnyJim** » 21 Nov 2009, 21:53

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 21 Nov 2009, 22:35

Oi! Stop beating about the bush!

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 21 Nov 2009, 22:40

I love this place.

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 21 Nov 2009, 22:42

Andy Hunt wrote:

I love this place.

I wish I could get away from it!