Renewables expert David Mackay appointed to Government

What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?

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Blue Peter
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Re: Renewables expert David Mackay appointed to Government

Post by Blue Peter »

mobbsey wrote:Then again, for a little R&R I watched an old video last night of "Quatermass and the Pit". Made in 1967, 10 years after Roger Revelle started his research that would identify the growing concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere, the following exchange takes place that perhaps defines a great truism of the human condition:
Quatermass: Roney, If we found that our Earth was doomed, say by climatic changes, what would we do about it?

Roney: Nothing, just go on squabbling as usual.

Spooky, I was just asking on another forum if anyone knew about 'Quatermass'.


But, to your substantive point, is there an argument that that's simply how we (Western civilization, for want of a better term) are?


Peter.




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mobbsey
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Re: Renewables expert David Mackay appointed to Government

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Blue Peter wrote:But, to your substantive point, is there an argument that that's simply how we (Western civilization, for want of a better term) are?
It's not how we "are", it's the dynamic that's created by centralised Western institutions. There are many other examples of social organisation that don't reflect the same trends. For example, if you look at anthropological studies of more traditional societies you don't get the same kind of blind obedience to authority because the emphasis in social systems is for collective decision making, reflecting all views rather than the "tyranny of the majority"; however that also means that often the norms of the society are to support each other in order to avoid such divergent views emerging in the first place, so avoiding conflict before it happens.

In the West -- be it democratic, autocratic or oligarchic -- the deference to authority means that what needs to be said is rarely stated because it would offend those higher up; who of course ultimately represent you potential to advance in society. Therefore to be willing to create major change you have to have a world view or a material position that's independent of the dominant political-economy (hence why many radical figures in the past were from the aristocracy, e.g. Kropotkin, or from wealthy families, e.g. Gandhi, or had other external support, e.g. early trade union leaders like Kier Hardy).

It also means that where there is conflict between different viewpoints it's polarised between opposing camps, which of course reinforces the "group think" as a form of intellectual defence mechanism; and so any idea that there might be an different or alternative view of a problem, even within the group, is expunged because it doesn't fit in with the dominant group ideology. As we're socially cued to look for such differences in the social networks around us, in order to make sense of them and so determine our relationship to them, the media is able to amplify those conflicts and play to our innate senses of disagreement, gossip and antagonism (e.g., the Welshman who got washed up on a desert island and built two chapels... "because he didn't go to that one").

Of course, if we could work on the representational structures then the dynamics of groups would change. However, that's going to be a tall order because it isn't a just a loss of power that those in charge face -- ultimately they all have to face that fact when they retire or they end up like Mugabe; what it means is a loss of material affluence, but most importantly the deference from others that reinforces their own self-image -- we're asking them to give away their own inflated egos!

In a sense, in order to end the growth-oriented economy, we're not just asking politicians to change policy, we're asking them to change their identity and ideological outlook. No amount of wind turbines or green consumer brands are going to alter the fact that such change will only be wrought -- as outlined by the sage of "conventional wisdom", J.K. Galbraith -- in the throws of a crisis that their world view can't answer or solve; but of course, with climate change or energy depletion, by the time they admit the crisis we're already going to be fairly well screwed! How we anticipate and move on beyond this impasse is therefore all about creating parallel systems of support and exchange, and the development alternative mechanisms that can be scaled-up quickly by society so that, when the "powers that be" finally admit that they've made a balls-up, we can try and avoid some of the chaos and civil strife that will ensue.
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Mark
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Re: Renewables expert David Mackay appointed to Government

Post by Mark »

mobbsey wrote: How we anticipate and move on beyond this impasse is therefore all about creating parallel systems of support and exchange, and the development alternative mechanisms that can be scaled-up quickly by society so that, when the "powers that be" finally admit that they've made a balls-up, we can try and avoid some of the chaos and civil strife that will ensue.
Much more eloquently put than my simplistic analysis, however I can't see the total re-engineering of society you envisage anytime soon.
If it does pan out like that, I can't see it happening without the significant level of chaos and civil strife you hope to avoid.

Over the next 10-20 years, I see a gradual move back to a more locally based economy as the cost of oil rises.
I agree that this will require us to develop more local support and exchange mechanisms as we reduce dependence on the global economy.
Energy ? Reduce usage and generate your own to minimise reliance on the big power corporations.
Food ? Grow your own to minimise reliance on the supermarkets.
Services ? Some can be provided by LETS schemes and the like.
Goods ? Some can be provided by Workers Co-operatives and the like. It will also mean re-building some of our manufacturing base.

I can't see this as a total solution though, as there are too many things we can't avoid getting from the global economy.
Computers ? Tyres ? Solar Panels ? Oranges ?

We've been trading goods internationally for at least 3,000 years, so I can't see it stopping overnight.
Last edited by Mark on 11 Sep 2009, 08:32, edited 2 times in total.
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mobbsey
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Re: Renewables expert David Mackay appointed to Government

Post by mobbsey »

Mark wrote:Much more eloquently put than my simplistic analysis, however I can't see the total re-engineering of society you envisage anytime soon.
But isn't that the point? If energy and raw materials are in short supply then you can't "re-engineer" society; that's the problem with a lot of the current ideas on offer from WWF or Greenpeace -- it's all about building our way of of a problem created by too much building in the past! The first phase of re-imagining society will be deciding which bits we don't essentially need, not replacing them (the horror!), and then trying to find more sustainable, human-scale alternatives to those parts we decide are essential.

Perhaps more importantly, just dishing out more of the same diet of "technology" and "development", all "outsourced" in order to realised the greatest economic efficiency, reinforces the present brittleness of systemic relations -- if we plan the future on the conceptions of the present, but then the conditions created by energy depletion invalidate those assumptions, your system will still collapses spectacularly even though it might be "greener" (things like concentrating solar power working across continents, bio-plastics or other highly engineered fossil fuel substitutes, and automated/logic controlled devices locked up with DRM are excellent examples of this problem).

The future will have to be more organic in order to efficiently utilise as much solar energy as possible: Food will have to become more local but it will also become more personal -- we have to get more involved in sourcing and small scale production as well as preparation, and the reuse of plant matter in order to close the nutrient cycles; energy will have to become smaller scale, and in effect more opportunistic by co-locating processes in order to more efficiently use energy (like 60 or 80 years ago when people took their meals down to the baker's shop to be roast in the left-over heat from the over); most importantly how we live our lifestyles will have to become more organic because we just won't have the energy to support the present diversity of materials consumption and materialistic pursuits (e.g. why go to a gym when there's miles of country footpaths to forage along).

This is why I say we need to step outside of the present expectations of the system -- building new kit, technological efficiencies, green jobs, etc. -- and move towards a conception of social development model that is more focussed on humans enabling their own lifestyles rather than having it dumped in front of them in return for a payment (the "service economy" system which has arisen precisely because it extracts greater economic value and so drives growth). This is also the reality of what using less means -- it negates growth, and so what we'll see is greater materials efficiency but, unlike today, that will not be driven by greater economic efficiency (often, economic and thermodynamic efficiencies are poorly related anyway).
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emordnilap
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Re: Renewables expert David Mackay appointed to Government

Post by emordnilap »

Mark wrote:We've been trading goods internationally for at least 3,000 years, so I can't see it stopping overnight.
And it won't - although some are saying it will. It's the way those goods are manufactured and shipped (and the amount of tat that's been making an increasing percentage) that's going to change. We'll always trade. But the practice of bringing onions 12,000 miles by air should end immediately.

Your localisation strategies are spot-on: wants and expectations need to be drastically lowered by the bulk of the population.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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Mark
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Post by Mark »

David MacKay's first headline since getting his new role....

The government's new energy adviser says the UK could face blackouts by 2016 because green energy is not coming on stream fast enough:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8249540.stm
fifthcolumn
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Post by fifthcolumn »

RenewableCandy wrote:I think the government, and possibly the no-growth mob, are missing a trick here: anyone remember those predictions from the 1960s about how all the new labour-saving devices would, erm, save labour?? All that's happened in that case is that because of Growth we're all working hard on other stuff instead. Working too damn hard if you ask me!
Yes. The trick they missed is that unless you are born rich you have to work to acquire the necessary resources for life. So bullshit jobs had to be invented for the masses otherwise we would just end up with more and more "useless eaters" (as our evil overlords refer to us according to conspiracy theorists).

I reckon most work is not in fact done by people, it's done by either machines (china etc) or else software and computer networks (the west).
Most jobs in the west are bullshit jobs that don't really add any value and so the west is doomed to be a bubble economy.

We don't add any value so the only way to create more jobs is to pump up the money supply.

Luckily for all of us, the real value add is being done by China etc so they are holding the bag for us and paying the debt.

If they drop the bag we're really up shit creek.
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Post by RenewableCandy »

fifthcolumn wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:I think the government, and possibly the no-growth mob, are missing a trick here: anyone remember those predictions from the 1960s about how all the new labour-saving devices would, erm, save labour?? All that's happened in that case is that because of Growth we're all working hard on other stuff instead. Working too damn hard if you ask me!
Yes. The trick they missed is that unless you are born rich you have to work to acquire the necessary resources for life. So bullshit jobs had to be invented for the masses ...
Yes, or set IHT threshold so you could inherit 1 (one) house, and implement the Citizens' Wage so you'd just buy what you need, thus bypassing the need for the bullshit jobs and all the damage that goes with them.
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

I am really amazed how threads on this forum rapidly veer of subject!

It will be interesting to see how David McKay jumps when embedded in the mind bending political apparat which is very challenging for sci advisers at the moment eg Prof Nutt.

I have had a chance to skim McKays book now, he does what Cambridge Physics Profs and FRs's do well and that is to work things out. It is a valuable reference book and not short of a tad of rather black hunour.

I do hope he keeps his sense of humour.
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Post by Blue Peter »

Roger Adair wrote:I do hope he keeps his sense of humour.
With all the clowns in government around him, how could he fail to?


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Post by RenewableCandy »

Good point. have you heard his latest, about not wanting to buy fuel from (andIquote) "people with funny accents" :) ?
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

Presumably he meant London or New York oil traders.... :?:
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