The slow disappearance of government (WARNING: GLOOMY RANT)

[Ludwig]

The more I read about current events, the more convinced I become that what we are going to see over the next 6 or 7 years is the gradual contraction of government to the point where it ceases to exist entirely for all practical purposes. There ultimately won't be the money to keep ANYTHING going. In such an environment, getting fed and keeping warm become all people care about, and all they can hope for. Within a decade, Britain will be an island of thousands of competing warlords. It will be neighbourhood against neighbourhood, village against village.

In terms of the social attitudes needed to keep society going in some form, Britain couldn't be worse off. Most young people have are arrogant and uneducated, and have a sense of entitlement drummed into them from the moment they're born. They have no sense of right and wrong - when they are "nice", it's only so that they can get what they want from you. When they are not nice, they really are not nice.

Reading today a report in the Guardian I think... 40% of teachers have been assaulted by pupils. Think about that. I'd be interested to see how this compares with other countries of the world: I can't think of anywhere where the figure might be higher.

For the past 3 decades we have been a nation of moral cowards, never prepared to make a stand for society as a concept, ever ready to accept the bribes and flattery and lies offered to us by successive governments. We're a bunch of greedy selfish idle morons and we'll get exactly what we deserve.

We have no coherent energy policy. "The market" was meant to sort it all out. So now do we blame "the market" for its dreadful failure?

The police are increasingly just a bunch of stupid, opportunistic thugs. I foresee a TOTAL breakdown in law and order in the next 5 years. That is when the system of warlords will start to emerge - the only protection available to people will be that "offered" by the local gang of thugs.

I just feel angry and bitter that I was born into this shithole of a country. I do not believe anything can be changed: the evils that are to come are our just desserts and they must be worked through, even by those of us who never bought into the idea that consumerism would bring us heaven. It will bring us hell.

I so wish I didn't have family ties here. I really don't want to be here. A lot of the time, I think I'd rather not be anywhere. It's all too crap and I feel totally trapped. I guess I'm not the only one. I just thought I would vent my spleen. And anyway I did warn you in the subject line

[Quintus]

A bleak vision of the near future, Ludwig! I see more of slow descent, where the number of jobless rises, there are mass privatisations, energy, food and transport become ever more costly ... and pensions, NHS and the welfare system are far less generous. I expect crime, corruption and authoritarianism to rise but I don’t see a general breaking down of all law and order. As bad as Britain might get, I believe there will be many worse places to live.

I still expect some things to be readily available - e.g. reality TV, cheap electronics and video games, football, alcohol and drugs. I imagine there will be a further dumbing down of the media (cutting back the BBC's public service remit, "shock jocks" etc). Got to keep the people amused.

I see a changing of the electoral system to ensure it is more difficult for any but the three big parties to get elected (see likely PR proposals). Plus a crack down on blogs (see EU discussion paper).

We've discussed ten year predictions before and I mentioned I saw a move towards communitarianism and EU corporatism – and - a push towards localism, volunteerism and less consumeristic lifestyles ("all making a virtue out of necessity").

[madibe]

I just feel angry and bitter that I was born into this shithole of a country.

Ah... take a visit to South America. Guatamala is fun if you like a bribable local militia; I managed to loose virtually everything as I had to bribe local border guards to travel across their turf from plantation to plantation - the trip fron Guayaquil to Quito. Santos, Brazil fills me with interesting memories of a life so cheap that it beggared belief (12 year olds selling themselves). Coatzacoalcos in Mexico stunk like a vagabond's groin. Ecuador was a nightmare that mixed most of the above.

Popping over to Asia... now Karachi was intersting, especialy the legless children who got about on skateboards. Aparently having a good beggar in the family is a bonus, so the babies legs are mutilated or removed at birth.

Latvia (yea, during the good ole USSR days) was plain grim with workers arriving at the gas refinery at 05:00. Pitch black, walking in a line, 20 or 30 of them leaning into the wind wearing what looked like great coats. Minus 30 degrees trooping 200 meters from the 1950's bus that had brought them from the local housing estate. Heads down under spotlights, escorted by armed 'police', my heart went out to them.

Nearer to home, Naples... chased through some back streets by a gang of knife weilding types... oh and dont forget the 7 year old boys that come to ask "wanna F--k my seeester?" Could happen in Moss Side I guess.

Now.. this shit hole seems ok to me. No patriotic noodling required.

[kenneal - lagger]

........ and EU corporatism .......

Don't you mean a further decent into Fascism?

From my experiences abroad, apart from the weather, got to mention that as a True Brit, UK is not a bad place to live. We stand a chance with the break up of the EU and being an island gives us a chance to keep the wondering hoards out, until all central government breaks down, that is. Then we're likely to be back to the modern equivalent of the Angle, Saxon, Viking or Norman invasions.

Ireland might be a good place to be then; one further sea channel away from the hungry rabble.

[mobbsey]

I just feel angry and bitter that I was born into this shithole of a country.

But Britain (without the "big government" that we have today) used to have an Empire on which the sun never set; we invented much of the technologies of the early Industrial Revolution -- canals, railways, screw propellers etc. -- and urbanism; and we've given the world some of it's greatest literature in the works of Shakespeare or Dickens... all before we started using oil or natural gas, and certainly before our coal consumption had really began to crank up to the huge levels seen at the beginning of the 20th Century.

I do not believe anything can be changed: the evils that are to come are our just desserts and they must be worked through, even by those of us who never bought into the idea that consumerism would bring us heaven. It will bring us hell.

Patience dude!

It's taken 160 years to reach the heights of the Fossil Fuel Era -- we're talking about planetary scales of change, not human time-scales. Even if the government hadn't bailed out the banks it still wouldn't have changed overnight.

Think of this in larger, systemic terms: You can blow your time and energy taking on something that's much larger than you, more well resourced than you, and in all likelihood better supported by the soma-infused public; or you can make real change in your own lifestyle, making it more resilient and sustainable by weaning yourself off support from the present system of consumer necromancy. Rather than trying to take the whole world on your shoulders just try and organise your own future -- that's more than enough for most people to manage. You can't take on the responsibility for the moral/lifestyle questions of others; this personal transition must proceed from an internal review of our own desires and self-image (you can hold their hand, but you can't pull them), but if you sort yourself out you can use that experience and knowledge to help them when they finally wise-up and ask for alternative options.

Think of this in Darwinian terms. Modern humanity has made itself the ultimate ecological niche away from the ecological equilibrium using fossil fuels; as fossil fuels deplete that niche, in the same way that myxomatosis can be considered an equally problematic disease for foxes, will fall apart -- in all likelihood, not in the spectacular manner depicted within the confines of a 2-hour Hollywood film but the slow lingering suffering of a 500 page classical tome. Patience, resolution and finding greater joy from less stuff is the way to handle this transition; whether it's ultimately good or bad, it doesn't preclude the option of creating an island of relative sanity amidst the sea of anguish.

The only reason that there would be no hope for a person would be if they were utterly wedded to the present high energy/high consumption system and they completely, utterly, in every sense cannot envision living a lifestyle outside of that paradigm (and those people do exist -- I've met a few on my travels). But if you're willing to change and find a new accommodation with ecological reality then you can find a space for positive living; not the positivity of delusional meditation or lonely survivalism, but the human reality of creating good food, drink and entertainment and enjoying that with a close circle of friends. Perhaps more importantly, from this more secure situation you are likely to have the capacity to help others do the same, using your own experience as a template, to give them a vision for change.

Today we move so fast that it's difficult to appreciate slow moving phenomena -- slow down, take time to look at what lies about us, and you might be able to see the slow evolution of our species that is taking place today!

[emordnilap]

Ireland might be a good place to be then; one further sea channel away from the hungry rabble.

No, stay away, trust me. I wouldn't advise it to anyone. You would be making the wrong move, honest.

[Andy Hunt]

Ireland might be a good place to be then; one further sea channel away from the hungry rabble.

No, stay away, trust me. I wouldn't advise it to anyone. You would be making the wrong move, honest.

For him, or for you?

[kenneal - lagger]

Ireland might be a good place to be then; one further sea channel away from the hungry rabble.

No, stay away, trust me. I wouldn't advise it to anyone. You would be making the wrong move, honest.

You could always emigrate across the water to the good ole US of A!!

[Ludwig]

I just feel angry and bitter that I was born into this shithole of a country.

Ah... take a visit to South America. Guatamala is fun if you like a bribable local militia; I managed to loose virtually everything as I had to bribe local border guards to travel across their turf from plantation to plantation - the trip fron Guayaquil to Quito. Santos, Brazil fills me with interesting memories of a life so cheap that it beggared belief (12 year olds selling themselves). Coatzacoalcos in Mexico stunk like a vagabond's groin. Ecuador was a nightmare that mixed most of the above.

Popping over to Asia... now Karachi was intersting, especialy the legless children who got about on skateboards. Aparently having a good beggar in the family is a bonus, so the babies legs are mutilated or removed at birth.

Latvia (yea, during the good ole USSR days) was plain grim with workers arriving at the gas refinery at 05:00. Pitch black, walking in a line, 20 or 30 of them leaning into the wind wearing what looked like great coats. Minus 30 degrees trooping 200 meters from the 1950's bus that had brought them from the local housing estate. Heads down under spotlights, escorted by armed 'police', my heart went out to them.

Nearer to home, Naples... chased through some back streets by a gang of knife weilding types... oh and dont forget the 7 year old boys that come to ask "wanna **** my seeester?" Could happen in Moss Side I guess.

Now.. this shit hole seems ok to me. No patriotic noodling required.

Thanks Maudibe, you put things in perspective for me - although my pessimistic side thinks the situations you describe may be where Britain is headed for. I think there are pretty bad prevalent social attitudes in this country compared with most other developed nations. And I'm not the only one who feels like this.

[Ludwig]

The only reason that there would be no hope for a person would be if they were utterly wedded to the present high energy/high consumption system and they completely, utterly, in every sense cannot envision living a lifestyle outside of that paradigm (and those people do exist -- I've met a few on my travels). But if you're willing to change and find a new accommodation with ecological reality then you can find a space for positive living; not the positivity of delusional meditation or lonely survivalism, but the human reality of creating good food, drink and entertainment and enjoying that with a close circle of friends. Perhaps more importantly, from this more secure situation you are likely to have the capacity to help others do the same, using your own experience as a template, to give them a vision for change.

Fair points Mobbsey. But I disagree that losing our material crap will be the worst thing that could happen to us. I really can imagine a society where there won't be enough for everyone to eat: with the best will in the world, that will not be a nice place to live. Even those who grow their own food will have to watch their patches night and day for thieves - who likely would come in armed gangs, not just ones or twos.

Today we move so fast that it's difficult to appreciate slow moving phenomena -- slow down, take time to look at what lies about us, and you might be able to see the slow evolution of our species that is taking place today!

I find it difficult to think of it as a slow evolution to be honest. With climate change on top of Peak Oil, I see it as a long drawn-out collapse.

I like your image of the 500-page novel - I think this is probably realistic. It's what happened in Easter Island. But even if it's a slow decline, there will be a long period where there's a good chance you don't know whether you'll survive the day. Imagine living in fear of your life for 2 decades - is that any better than being dead?

Apologies for the gloom. I guess personal circumstances play a role in one's outlook, to some extent.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

Top Post, Mobbsey.

[fifthcolumn]

The more I read about current events, the more convinced I become that what we are going to see over the next 6 or 7 years is the gradual contraction of government to the point where it ceases to exist entirely for all practical purposes. There ultimately won't be the money to keep ANYTHING going. In such an environment, getting fed and keeping warm become all people care about, and all they can hope for. Within a decade, Britain will be an island of thousands of competing warlords. It will be neighbourhood against neighbourhood, village against village.

I only expect the sudden collapse down to gangland to occur if we get extreme hyperinflation. Otherwise I expect a version of the 1970s. Strikes, high inflation, lots of unemployed, lots of drugs and violence.

In terms of the social attitudes needed to keep society going in some form, Britain couldn't be worse off. Most young people have are arrogant and uneducated, and have a sense of entitlement drummed into them from the moment they're born. They have no sense of right and wrong - when they are "nice", it's only so that they can get what they want from you. When they are not nice, they really are not nice.

I'm not sure that's limited to the UK though the shithole northern city I came from has more than it's fair share of yobbos and having to live beside them in a potential hyperinflationary scenario was enough to make me want to leave.

Reading today a report in the Guardian I think... 40% of teachers have been assaulted by pupils. Think about that. I'd be interested to see how this compares with other countries of the world: I can't think of anywhere where the figure might be higher.

Call me barbaric whatever you like, I suspect that if we had not got rid of corporal punishment, that figure would be much lower.
Corporal punishment, however, will return. That's a cast iron guarantee.
What will be interesting is to see if it works in a hyperinflationary collapse.

We have no coherent energy policy. "The market" was meant to sort it all out. So now do we blame "the market" for its dreadful failure?

We don't have a free market. We have a rigged market tied up by successive governments who all work for the same people.

The police are increasingly just a bunch of stupid, opportunistic thugs. I foresee a TOTAL breakdown in law and order in the next 5 years. That is when the system of warlords will start to emerge - the only protection available to people will be that "offered" by the local gang of thugs.

I don't see a total breakdown. Right now we have the police protecting the rights of the rich and by not punishing them effectively, the police protecting the right of the poor to rob and commit violence.
This will change. The police will withdraw to protecting ONLY the rich and the criminals will be handled by the population at large. Or by gangsters as you say.

[fifthcolumn]

I just feel angry and bitter that I was born into this shithole of a country.

But Britain (without the "big government" that we have today) used to have an Empire on which the sun never set; we invented much of the technologies of the early Industrial Revolution -- canals, railways, screw propellers etc. -- and urbanism; and we've given the world some of it's greatest literature in the works of Shakespeare or Dickens... all before we started using oil or natural gas, and certainly before our coal consumption had really began to crank up to the huge levels seen at the beginning of the 20th Century.

That is an often forgotten truth: what made Britain great was that it was a country of ports in a world where the fastest form of transport was shipping.

That will still be an advantage once we resolve the problem of the pound having to go down the toilet.

[kenneal - lagger]

Apologies for the gloom. I guess personal circumstances play a role in one's outlook, to some extent.

We'll have to rechristen you "Eeyaw", Ludwig.

[RenewableCandy]

we've given the world some of it's greatest literature...

Aaaaarrrrgggh!!!!!!

(But otherwise, well said!)