Current Oil Price

Mitch · Post by **Mitch** » 27 Aug 2009, 01:58

Don't do this meself - rather sceptical about gambling, BUT - watching the price over the last 6 - 8 weeks has made me wonder:

1 If TPTB actually understand that $80 - $100 is the next fall over, and

2 OPEC wants as much as they can get

Then - buy at around $60 and sell at around $70 should see everyone more or less even? There appears to be spare capacity, (don't care if it's in instantly available shut - in's, or SPR's, or tankers parked outside Portsmouth - it seems to be available if the price gets a bit silly. Conversley, if the price goes a little too low for the producers, it seems like a slight restriction on production can soon remedy that. I do know and accept that this is a tremendously simplistic view, but hell, am only a crusty old hippie anyhow. Seems to me like this precise price control business has been going on for decades, only now, (in light of last years little hiccup to around $150.00), we are right on the very edge of keeping up the pretense?

Is there really enough stocked up in tankers, (who's crews - according to the Beeb - are creating the entire economy for small sea-side towns while they wait for prices which would enable them to off-load and go home?)

Regards,

Mitch

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 31 Aug 2009, 12:02

Not seen any price predictions on here for a while.

Tomorrow we're into the last third of 2009. It seems to have been a short year, what with the weather being bad here for the last two months.

Anyways, punters, what price will the ticker say on 1st December 2009 and/or 1st March 2010?

syberberg · Post by **syberberg** » 01 Sep 2009, 12:05

emordnilap wrote:Not seen any price predictions on here for a while.

Tomorrow we're into the last third of 2009. It seems to have been a short year, what with the weather being bad here for the last two months.

Anyways, punters, what price will the ticker say on 1st December 2009 and/or 1st March 2010?

Ok, I'll bite

I've got a feeling that the price will remain pretty steady around the $70 mark. Not falling very far below $65 and not rising above $80.

Unless we have a miraculous recovery between now and then of course.

fifthcolumn · Post by **fifthcolumn** » 02 Sep 2009, 23:02

syberberg wrote: Ok, I'll bite

I've got a feeling that the price will remain pretty steady around the $70 mark. Not falling very far below $65 and not rising above $80.

Unless we have a miraculous recovery between now and then of course.

I think it'll go up to about $90 if current trends continue (china), after which I expect it to plummet back down to at most $50.

I had originally suspected that we'd be down to about $30 again but the chinese are filling up their strategic reserves.

The American strategic reserve is full to the gunnels.

Does Europe have one?

Do we get a recovery yet?

These are the big questions.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 09 Sep 2009, 16:47

I see the oil price (on the ticker at least) seems to be behaving as predicted.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 15 Sep 2009, 14:19

Sometimes there is just no news:

Crude futures lack direction during morning trading

London (Platts)--15Sep2009/640 am EDT/1040 GMT

Crude futures lacked direction during European morning trading, with both
the October and November ICE Brent contracts trading within a sideways range.

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 15 Sep 2009, 14:28

fifthcolumn wrote:Does Europe have one?

Yeah - "Tanker City", offshore from Lowestoft

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 15 Sep 2009, 15:38

Bandidoz wrote:
fifthcolumn wrote:Does Europe have one?
Yeah - "Tanker City", offshore from Lowestoft

That explains the party on the horizon in this photo which I took the other week:

http://www.dogsticks.org/cgi-bin/photos ... gi?id=8148

syberberg · Post by **syberberg** » 17 Sep 2009, 02:55

emordnilap wrote:I see the oil price (on the ticker at least) seems to be behaving as predicted.

There's still plenty of time for me to be wrong

The main, realistic, threat to my prediction is the severity of the coming winter and how quickly can the spare capacity be brought online to cover any increased demand for heating oil?

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 25 Sep 2009, 14:44

Oil took a bit of a dive yesterday, and is still falling today. Anyone know what's driving it? The only thing I can think of is that it's the recoveryless recovery which we're having (BDI is also headed down now after looking like it was finding a plateau),

Peter.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 25 Sep 2009, 15:28

Higher than usual imports to the US last week leading to an unexpected rise in 'onshore' storage.

Short term fluctuations in the price are impossible to rationalise, because too many players are trying to game the market. The price has been $70 +/- $4 for most of the last three months. To me that suggests powerful forces have control of the market and want a price high enough to sustain oil field investment and low enough to avoid crushing demand any further. A rational policy.

Anyway, this can only continue so long. Soon the fundamentals will take over, and either we will be flooded with oil, or the price will rise again. Take your pick. Probably within the next 3 months.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 25 Sep 2009, 15:54

ODAC wrote:Oil prices fell this week in response to higher than anticipated inventories and weak US economic data. Some commentators predict that prices may fall further in the short-term as crude inventories continue to outpace demand. If so, it is only likely to exacerbate existing investment challenges.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 12 Oct 2009, 12:44

Is it not on the up and up again?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 12 Oct 2009, 20:57

It's been in the 65 to 75 range for a long time now.

syberberg · Post by **syberberg** » 12 Oct 2009, 23:49

biffvernon wrote:It's been in the 65 to 75 range for a long time now.

Just you wait, November 30th, (or last trading day before December 1st) and it'll sky-rocket and prove me wrong.