Iran warns of 'consequences' if referred to UN re uranium

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fishertrop
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Post by fishertrop »

clv101 wrote:I can't help thinking he had it upside down, isn't an oil embargo what Iran will impose on us rather than the other way around?
I still can't believe how many people are painting the picture as "we'll put oil sanctions on iran" when they might as well say "we'll put an oil import embargo on ourselves, and then pay the price".
clv101 wrote: Crazy situation this... I still have a have time believing "the west" would do anything stupid enough to take some 3mbpd off the world market.
I know, it sounds too mad.

Would such count as "another 9/11" ?

It might, esp if coupled with another event - and we've all read about where that might lead:
The Pentagon, acting under instructions from Vice President Dick Cheney?s office, has tasked the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons....
http://www.amconmag.com/2005_08_01/article3.html
Joe
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Post by Joe »

OK, lets assume that the Neo Cons are cynical enough to bomb, let's say, the Empire State building as a pretext for a strike against Iran, AND are stupid enought to go into Iran.

What makes them think that Iran wouldn't experience the same dip in production that Iraq has? Given that they had to go begging to the EIA after Katrina will they really think they can afford to risk it?
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Post by DamianB »

01/15/06 "ICH" -- -- There?s been a lot of rubbish written about Iran?s ?removing the seals? from its uranium enrichment equipment.

The fear-mongering western media have exploited the expression for all its worth. Even those who are normally skeptical of the Bush-propaganda machine are taken aback by this ominous-sounding phrase.

What gibberish!

How else does one make nuclear fuel for electric power plants if the fuel-producing mechanism is under lock and key?

The fear-engendering description provided in the news would have the reader believe that ?diabolical? Iranians are ripping off the seals with crowbars so they can quickly assemble their secret nuclear stockpile to bomb Tel Aviv.

This is the worse type of demagoguery.

The fuel that is produced from these uranium enrichment reactors DOES NOT PRODUCE WEAPONS-GRADE MATERIAL. That requires thousands of centrifuges which Iran does not have.

At the same time, the nuclear watchdog agency, the IAEA, has on-site inspectors and cameras monitoring the entire process.

Everything is under constant observation.

Additionally, as nuclear weapons physicist, Gordon Prather states, ?After almost three years of go-anywhere see-anything interview-anyone inspections, IAEA inspectors have yet to find any indication that Iran has?or ever had?a nuclear weapons program?.
http://www.informationclearinghouse.inf ... e11572.htm

This article seems closer to the truth to me - a gut reaction- than the propaganda we get from the MSM but I'm not that well read on the subject; what do others think?
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
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PaulS
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Post by PaulS »

I agree entirely. It is the non-existent WMDs all over again.

Mind you, I would certainly not wish a nation like Iran, to get hold of atom bombs. With the martyrdom culture in Islamic states, that would be far too dangerous. MAD may not apply to Islamic countries, n which case we would be mad to allow them such a weapon.
What a shame, seemed quite promising, this human species.
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Blue Peter
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Post by Blue Peter »

PaulS wrote:I agree entirely. It is the non-existent WMDs all over again.

Mind you, I would certainly not wish a nation like Iran, to get hold of atom bombs. With the martyrdom culture in Islamic states, that would be far too dangerous. MAD may not apply to Islamic countries, n which case we would be mad to allow them such a weapon.
Don't Pakistan have nuclear weapons?


Peter.
fishertrop
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Post by fishertrop »

Joe wrote:OK, lets assume that the Neo Cons are cynical enough to bomb, let's say, the Empire State building as a pretext for a strike against Iran, AND are stupid enought to go into Iran.

What makes them think that Iran wouldn't experience the same dip in production that Iraq has? Given that they had to go begging to the EIA after Katrina will they really think they can afford to risk it?
A perfectly valid point.

What's the one thing they could use to improve (a little..) the picture in Iraq and make things near-bareable (post conflict) in that small part of Iran with most of the oil/gas?

What thing can't they use now that certain key spectacular events would enable?

Two words - "the draft".

Many US commanders in Iraq, plus administration figures say they could make Iraq better with a lot more troops on the ground. (See http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/ar ... 4Oct4.html for example)

The US is getting stretched currently with just Iraq, which clearly isn't working at all and likely even the neocons can see the current picture applied to that golden bit of Iran is no good.

But if the voices saying (as they did for vietnam) "we can win this with enough troops" then the real question for the white house is "what is needed to enable more troops?" which is defacto "what is needed to make the draft tolrable to the population?"

If they announced a draft for Iraq today, there would be uproar.

But with the right event, or sequence of such - and I would say most people reading this can imagine what would be needed - the US public would line up, queing down the road, to enlist...... just as they did after 9/11.

The short term crisis caused by Iran's exports going offline might actually complement the "enabling events" and cement in the public's mind the sense of panic and the need to take drastic measures.

Presumably the prospect of controlling Iraqi and Iranian oil/gas in the long term has a high value attached ?
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Ballard
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Post by Ballard »

Presumably the American Gov can see an approaching future of energy / economic strife for the United States. With no action on their part this is virtually guaranteed to happen.

So what's to lose?

By attacking the Iranians in the near future (under one of the many excuses) they are just bringing the date forward, and realistically a war with the Middle East isn?t going to get more affordable the longer you wait.

So why not blow the whole thing up and see who comes out fighting at the other side. I mean from an American Neocon perspective an all-out-War allows a lot more flexibility to do whatever you want, whilst blaming it on the War / Iranians etc, and you never know, you might win.

The alternative is to placate the Iranians/Middle East and struggle along with increasing energy/economic problems and a population who blame you for them.

I don?t think that the US (and allies) have any real choice in the matter, and it?s even better if you can goad the Iranians into doing something that gives you a good solid excuse for ?liberating? their oil.
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Post by Joe »

Aye, sadly, what you both say makes sense. Additionally I guess the Neo cons are almost certainly going to need to be embroiled in a war come election time in 2008 to have any hope of getting another republican returned to office.
peaky

Post by peaky »

PaulS wrote:With the martyrdom culture in Islamic states, that would be far too dangerous. MAD may not apply to Islamic countries, n which case we would be mad to allow them such a weapon.
It might be possible to see the Iraq invasion as martyrdom in a nation sense (playing rather loosley with language :? ) Logically, there is no way to know that MAD has 'kept the peace' since VJ day - all we know is that nobody has used such weapons again. That's it. I've always felt it was a convenient pretext for the West to pile up their weapons. Let's face it, a Trident's worth of nukes would wreak unimaginable destruction and we, let alone the US have rather more than one Trident's worth of missiles :evil:

The following was reported in 2003 and covered by The Acronym Institute:
House of Commonds wrote:Asked to clarify if the UK Government reserved the right to be the first to use weapons of mass destruction in war, Hoon replied: "...We maintain only a minimum nuclear deterrent, the purpose of which is to prevent war rather than fight it. As the Government has made clear on many occasions, we would be prepared to use nuclear weapons only in extreme circumstances of self-defence. As our overall strategy is to ensure uncertainty in the mind of any aggressor about the exact nature of our response, and thus to maintain effective deterrence, we do not define the exact circumstances under which we would be prepared to use nuclear weapons. We would not use our weapons, whether conventional or nuclear, contrary to international law."25

In accordance with this doctrine, the UK would be prepared to use its nuclear weapons first. Inconsistent with the UK's security assurances to NPT parties enshrined in UNSC 984 (1995), this expression of doctrine would also appear consistent with retaining the option to use nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive attack against another state's WMD capability, if this was judged to represent a current and serious threat. Her Majesty's Government, however, maintains that this does not represent any change in UK nuclear doctrine.

It is true that the UK has traditionally reserved the right to use nuclear weapons first, but that had always been in the context of having first been attacked - or perhaps also been on the point of being attacked - by the numerically superior forces of the Warsaw Pact. What worries some commentators now is that UK doctrine could justify the early use of nuclear weapons on the basis of an intelligence assessment of what a 'rogue' state is believed to have hidden in an underground bunker.
Ronald Reagan, 1971 wrote:"For the first time ever, everything is in place for the battle of Armageddon and the Second Coming of Christ. It can't be too long now. Ezekiel says that fire and brimstone will be rained upon the enemies of God's people. That must mean that they will be destroyed by nuclear weapons."
There is no evidence that those 'Eastern infidels' would be crazed enough to use these weapons, but it suits our purposes to believe it. Just as it suits our puposes to lie that Iraq had WMDs.

Any country owning nuclear weapons is mad in my book and logically, you cannot deter by threatening to use weapons you will never use. Everyone says that they only intend to use them in retaliation, except that as quoted by Hoon above "we do not define the exact circumstances under which we would be prepared to use nuclear weapons. We would not use our weapons, whether conventional or nuclear, contrary to international law.

In accordance with this doctrine, the UK would be prepared to use its nuclear weapons first. "

It's absurd and cannot be explained in any sensible way. I don't know about anyone else, but Hoon's comments don't give me a nice warm glow...
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PaulS
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Post by PaulS »

Enough peaky, I got the message! :lol:
Oh, I see you got rid of two of your submissions.

Seriously, any one or nation, that does not wish to commit suicide, will be bound by MAD startegy. But of course if you are happy to commit suicide, then you are not.

However, it is a big steps from individual decisions (such as made by the suicide bombers) to a national decision (! unless you are governed by a committed religious fanatic!)

This I think is the difference between Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan is governed by a pragmatist, Iran by a dogmatic.

Of course one can argue that this applies also to the US!
What a shame, seemed quite promising, this human species.
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fishertrop
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Post by fishertrop »

It only takes one little thing...
Iran 'detains' Iraqi coastguards

Nine Iraqi coastguards have been detained by Iran after a clash on the Shatt al-Arab waterway which marks the Iran-Iraq border, officials say.

Basra Governor Muhammad al-Waili said the Iranian Navy had attacked the coastguards after they boarded a ship believed to be smuggling oil.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 619604.stm
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

Here's a recent analysis from Reuters, link.

A couple of points, I've seen several articles talking about how the world doesn't have enough spare capacity to cover for Iran:
Further actual disruptions would be hard, if not impossible, for the world to cover with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries holding only 1.5 million barrels per day in reserve.
1.5mbpd in SA? This is totally misleading, isn?t this heavy sour oil with no market due to refinery limitations? If there's so much spare capacity why were IEA reserves used to cover the Katrina/Rita damage?
"Obviously a cut off would be serious, but not insoluble. As it proved after the U.S. hurricanes, the world community can actually get together and put millions of barrels into the supply system."

And the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, may be prepared to pay the price for disarming Iran.
Not insoluble, see hurricane response? The response that saw IEA reserve draw down that have yet to be replaced, that saw a record oil price and took a lot less that 3.9mbpd off the market. I'm not sure the world can "get together and put millions of barrels into the supply system".

As for the US being prepared to pay the price for disarming Iran, I don't think the US can afford the price nor do I think that Iran choosing to embargo the west will result in Iran disarming itself! Or are we back to talking about forcibly disarming Iran...
peaky

Post by peaky »

PaulS wrote:Oh, I see you got rid of two of your submissions.
The web page produced an error each time I tried to submit, so I tried and extra two times thinking they'd failed and then found it was on here 3 times :? So, a little deletion was required!
oobers
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Post by oobers »

peaky wrote:
Hoon replied: "...We maintain only a minimum nuclear deterrent, the purpose of which is to prevent war rather than fight it. As the Government has made clear on many occasions, we would be prepared to use nuclear weapons only in extreme circumstances of self-defence.
Does anyone think that maybe "self-defence" includes the much used by politicians mantra "defend our way of life" as in defend our continued huge consumption of resources? In other words, would Hoon's "we do not define the exact circumstances under which we would be prepared to use nuclear weapons" include using them to "defend our way of life"?

I found this archive piece by Oliver Postgate from Nov 04 which sums up nicely the position we are in once again, I reckon

http://www.oliverpostgate.co.uk/archive10.html
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Andy Hunt
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Post by Andy Hunt »

Fischertrop wrote:-
I still can't believe how many people are painting the picture as "we'll put oil sanctions on iran" when they might as well say "we'll put an oil import embargo on ourselves, and then pay the price".
The objective of course being to prevent oil being traded in Euros, rather than to prevent oil being traded. The Iranian Euro-based Oil Bourse opens in March.

If there is no oil embargo, there will be military action against Iran.
Andy Hunt
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Eternal Sunshine wrote: I wouldn't want to worry you with the truth. :roll:
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