Swine Fever - any thoughts?

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 27 May 2009, 00:18

RenewableCandy wrote:Tbh I think most of the panic is b****cks but the flying bit is interesting. I would feel much more laid-back (is this possible??) if I knew that there were a mechanism in place for stopping flights from certain places at short notice if need be.

Also, if loads of people are catching the mild form of the virus, then when/if it becomes more severe there'll be loads of people who are immune to it. In fact the cleverest thing to do, for all I know, might be to go out there and get a tan (i.e. some VitD) then sleepover at your flu-infested mate's place and catch it before it gets nasty (and before the winter rush)...

No mechanism in place yet RC. Economy far too important to stop flights. phase 6 announcement may do it, but that has just been re-written, so looks like phase 6 will not be announced, as this would cause too many problems for the economy......

If the virus mutates (as expected) then having caught the original virus, provides no guarantee of immunity from a more serious version.

Come on folks, "gen-up" a bit more please!

Post by **clv101** » 27 May 2009, 00:42

snow hope wrote:If the virus mutates (as expected)

Why is this virus more likely to mutate into something really dangerous than any of the existing flu viruses that have been around for ages?

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 27 May 2009, 11:09

clv101 wrote:
snow hope wrote:If the virus mutates (as expected)
Why is this virus more likely to mutate into something really dangerous than any of the existing flu viruses that have been around for ages?

Because it is a different virus in the first place than the regular flu viruses - similar to the virus of 1918. One concern that many experts appear to have is if it mutates with H5N1 (Avian flu) which has high morbidity, but low contagion. There are some regions in the world where Avian Flu is a definite problem in birds and humans - Egypt, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc. The death rate is more than 50% if you get H5N1.

But it may not mutate into something really dangerous - plan for the worst, hope for the best applies. If it does mutate into something really dangerous, then we have a high impact event, with not a very low probability......... hence why some people are very concerned.

It's like Peak Oil, some of the experts speak out, but many keep their heads down. With the novel H1N1, some experts are raising the alarm, but most in officialdom/government don't want the sheeple to panic, nor do they want what happened in Mexico - shutdown, which caused immense economic problems. The economic problems are more important to Govt. than people dying imo.

Post by **clv101** » 27 May 2009, 11:37

Sorry I still don't get it. Why does it being a new virus make it more likely (than existing viruses) to mutate into something more dangerous? Similarly why is this more likely to mutate with H5N1.

The way the media seem to talk about swine flu it's as if flu is a new thing, it isn't. Many many many strains of flu in endemic. Some a highly contagious, some are highly lethal... As far as I can tell this is "just another flu" no more lethal than flu's we've all had and only more contagious because it's new so the population has little or no immunity to it.

Yeah, it might become more dangerous - but then so might any flu. Maybe it's rate or chance of mutation will be higher due to infecting more people?

I'm finding it hard to see this as anything more than the same old low probability, high impact threat we are always under.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 27 May 2009, 13:21

I worked on the human genome project for a couple of years, so I have quite a lot of knowledge about genetics, and mutation, etc. although I didn't look into viruses in any great detail.

This swine flu is not that different from other flu viruses. All flu viruses have (I think ) the equivalent of 5 chromosomes with a moderate number of genes on each one. This particular virus is a hybrid between human, bird and pig strains, with ( again I think) 1 bird, 1 human and 3 pig chromosomes. Some of the genes on these chromosomes are also slightly different from the original strains, because the flu virus mutates so quickly.

The entire DNA has been sequenced, and the physical effects of each gene estimated by comparing with existing strains. Hence the conclusion that (for example) it is likely to breed in the upper chest rather than deep in the lungs, so it is highly contagious but less likely to cause pneumonia.

Of course, it is mutating all the time, but the probability of the virus randomly mutating into a more deadly form remains low. The only serious concern I have seen is that it will end up mixing with the H5N1 bird flu in some far eastern sufferer and exchanges one 'chromosome' with one that makes the virus more deadly without being less contagious.

But that would for practical purposes be another new flu virus and a separate epidemic.

Post by **clv101** » 27 May 2009, 14:11

RalphW wrote:The only serious concern I have seen is that it will end up mixing with the H5N1 bird flu in some far eastern sufferer and exchanges one 'chromosome' with one that makes the virus more deadly without being less contagious.

But that would for practical purposes be another new flu virus and a separate epidemic.

And is this significantly more likely than a flu virus that was around 1, 2 or 3 years ago doing the same? In other words, how much greater is the risk today compared to this time last year?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 27 May 2009, 15:03

clv101 wrote: And is this significantly more likely than a flu virus that was around 1, 2 or 3 years ago doing the same? In other words, how much greater is the risk today compared to this time last year?

A bit higher. This is a pandemic, so maybe three times as many people will catch flu this year than normal. Three times the number of human incubators. That is a three fold increase in risk, all other factors being similar.

Calculating probabilities with large uncertainties is difficult.

EDIT

What we have is a pig flu that is highly contagious, and a bird flu which has high lethality but low contagion. We have the necessary precursors for a really nasty virus, which we didn't last year. No one know how often or easily these chromosome mixings happen, and there is no knowing if the result will be more or less lethal or contagious if it does happen. It is possible that the genes that make this pig flu contagious are incompatible with or a variant of the same genes that make the bird flu deadly.

We don't know. ( or at least I don't).

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 09 Jun 2009, 22:46

675 cases confirmed in the UK to date.

http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Fl ... /index.htm

Now, here's the 'scary' bit. Follow the numbers being reported on this page, and you will see exponential growth, though the virus will peter out as it increasingly encounters more immune people, or can't get to those who have taken steps to avoid it, eg 'social distancing'. (Easy for me, as I have no friends).

If it's usually mild symptoms, but very widespread (very likely under - reported), how long before the hospitals can't cope with the influx of people unlucky enough to get complications? At which point, cue press hysteria then other panic and mayhem.

It's not the reported numbers of those confirmed that matter, but the trend of the virus spread. We Powerswitchers know all about the exponential function, courtesy of the Albert Bartlett lecture...

landyowner · Post by **landyowner** » 25 Jun 2009, 13:44

Well, there are 10 confirmed cases now at the Universty of Exeter. One of my flatmates has flu like symptoms at the minute, wthether it is swine flu or not I don't know.
Worrying news is that I have come down with a sore throat and fatigue in the last couple of days, seems like too much of a coincidence that she has had flu-like symptoms for the last 4-5 days.

Apparently confirmed cases in the UK are now up to ~3,300 according to the nhs website.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 25 Jun 2009, 14:14

Well, there are 25 cases at Uni here, three schools shut, including the one in the next village that half the kids in this village attend.

I expect it to be in our street by the end of the week, and in our house by the end of the month.

Best get it over and done with, a few days off work would be nice

snow hope · Post by **snow hope** » 25 Jun 2009, 22:39

landyowner wrote:Well, there are 10 confirmed cases now at the Universty of Exeter. One of my flatmates has flu like symptoms at the minute, wthether it is swine flu or not I don't know.

Ordinary flu is very unusual in June. If you have flu it is very likely to be swine flu. I would advise you drink plenty, take high dose Vitamin C tablets and Vitamin D tablets. If you have any difficulty breathing ring your Doctor's surgery or A&E immediately.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 26 Jun 2009, 01:10

landyowner wrote:Worrying news is that I have come down with a sore throat and fatigue in the last couple of days, seems like too much of a coincidence that she has had flu-like symptoms for the last 4-5 days.

You're probably best off getting it now before it comes back in a more virulent form in the autumn, like it has in all the previous pandemics.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 26 Jun 2009, 08:45

If you're not really sure whether you've got flu then you haven't got flu.

Prono 007 · Post by **Prono 007** » 26 Jun 2009, 22:10

clv101 wrote:Sorry I still don't get it. Why does it being a new virus make it more likely (than existing viruses) to mutate into something more dangerous?

I thought it was all pretty overblown until I spoke to an epidemiologist about this a week ago.

She said the worry was that the similar virus in 1918 did a first round that didn't cause too much damage. It was a later pass which was far more deadly and wiped out 40 million people. And that was at time when people travelled A LOT less than today. Also the unusually long incubation period of 4 to 5 days mean it will be hard to guard against since many people will be carrying unbeknownst to them or anyone else.

Apparently 'the number of confirmed cases' is extremely misleading since it depends mainly on how many people you choose to test. The real figure could be much, much higher. However if this is a less deadly version of a future mutation getting it now could well give you immunity to that type.

She also said that she speculated a major die off was more likely to be triggered by something like this than PO as we haven't had one for a while and we're about due.

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 26 Jun 2009, 22:47

UndercoverElephant wrote:If you're not really sure whether you've got flu then you haven't got flu.

Yeah, if you've ever had 'flu you'll certainly recognise it again. 'Flu is more than not wanting to get out of bed - it's not being able to get out of bed.