PANDEMIC! It's Mad Max time!

[clv101]

Here's a quick graph I've made of the figures for anyone who likes pictures :

Where's the data published?

[biffvernon]

Wherever they came from they will not be very good data as all (maybe most) cases are not recorded. Doctors only recorded flu as swine flu if the patient had been to Mexico or had met a mexican traveller. Otherwise it was regarded as regular flu.

[Pennsif]

The data is from the Department of Health daily reports :

http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Fl ... /index.htm

Here's a quick graph I've made of the figures for anyone who likes pictures :

Where's the data published?

Pennsif

[fifthcolumn]

This pandemic is more an economic problem than a medical one.

Which is good right?
We want the economy to grow less quickly or stay static so we get more breathing room, right?

[PS_RalphW]

First cases confirmed in Cambridge

[Mean Mr Mustard]

This pandemic is more an economic problem than a medical one.

Which is good right?
We want the economy to grow less quickly or stay static so we get more breathing room, right?

On the current trend you get to 10% of the population unwell by mid September. Even if a small percentage have complications, that's a severe medical problem for hospitals, with less spare bed capacity due to 'efficiency' drives, and it's a wider economic issue too if random concentrated clusters of illness appear in key staff in vital businesses and services. And then people won't be able to go shopping for tat.

That said, things seem to have gone quiet down Mexico way, at least according to the WHO site.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

First cases confirmed in Cambridge

Oh blinking flip. And there was I was planning to go to the next Galloway and Porters clearance book sale in Cherry Hinton - that's always crowded.

[fifthcolumn]

Oh blinking flip. And there was I was planning to go to the next Galloway and Porters clearance book sale in Cherry Hinton - that's always crowded.

No, no. You *want* to catch it now.
If you catch it later it will already have mutated into a killer super flu.
Catching it now will give you some protection.

[Andy Hunt]

Where's "LudlowSurvivors" when you need him?

I honestly thought I'd heard the last of him until today . . .

[ziggy12345]

Oh blinking flip. And there was I was planning to go to the next Galloway and Porters clearance book sale in Cherry Hinton - that's always crowded.

No, no. You *want* to catch it now.
If you catch it later it will already have mutated into a killer super flu.
Catching it now will give you some protection.

That's what I thought as well. Is there any evidence of this for the Spanish Flu?

[fifthcolumn]

That's what I thought as well. Is there any evidence of this for the Spanish Flu?

That's where the idea comes from.
The spanish flu was heavily documented and is our best case study for this.
The first wave came in late spring and was slightly worse than the average flu.
Unlike seasonal flu, however, there was a low level of cases during the summer and a huge spike between september and october where the fatality rate jumped. There was another wave in the following spring which was more brutal than the second. This time it swept across the globe and devasted isolated rural areas, often killing most members of entire villages.
By the summer following the third wave, the spanish flu ran out of steam and virulence seemed to drop the following year to more or less seasonal flu levels.

If you want more details google "spanish flu 1918 waves"

[SunnyJim]

Aye, someone who went berserk on the INEBG. One of your "Sample of 1" fraternity

He may prove to be right yet!