PANDEMIC! It's Mad Max time!

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 11 Jun 2009, 17:50

WHO declares swine flu pandemic

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/ju ... o-declares

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 11 Jun 2009, 17:53

Where's "LudlowSurvivors" when you need him?

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 11 Jun 2009, 17:57

Do you mean?

Bandidoz · Post by **Bandidoz** » 11 Jun 2009, 17:58

Aye, someone who went berserk on the INEBG. One of your "Sample of 1" fraternity

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 11 Jun 2009, 18:10

Survival in Ludlow?

Emergency stocks of brie, parma ham, cranberry sauce, truffles, champers and lots of bottled Austrian spring water are essential.

And that's just for Snuffles the pony.

"Hello there little people. As you can see I'm wearing my Burberry Survival Cape. What do you think of the triffic Mega Survival Marquee that we have set up here in Ludlow?"

Catweazle · Post by **Catweazle** » 11 Jun 2009, 20:35

Swine Flu ! Don't Panic ! Buy all the Bread ! Don't Panic ! Tamiflu ! Don't Panic ! Facemasks ! Don't Panic ! Run to the Hills !

Post by **clv101** » 11 Jun 2009, 22:28

With a ~0.5% motality rate, similar to 'regular' flu... I just don't get what the fuss is about. Sure it may mutate into something different... but then so might any other flu virus.

goslow · Post by **goslow** » 12 Jun 2009, 11:45

only that if a lot more people get it than in a normal flu season, with the same fatality rate, we'll see more deaths. lets see if a vaccine can be made ready in time.

Keepz · Post by **Keepz** » 12 Jun 2009, 11:57

goslow wrote:only that if a lot more people get it than in a normal flu season, with the same fatality rate, we'll see more deaths. lets see if a vaccine can be made ready in time.

It's just bizarre to talk about "more deaths". All of us are going to die. There are going to be as many deaths as there are people.

I do not know what is going to kill me, or when; but I know for 100% certain that something will. And I am 99.99% certain that whatever it is, many other people already have it and/or many others have already died from it. Swine flu is one more possible to add to the list - quite a long way down the list in terms of probability and nowhere near the top in terms of undesirability - but it does not make it any more likely that I'm going to die one day (that probability remains 100%) and it does not mean more people are going to die than would have died otherwise (that total remains, all of them).

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 12 Jun 2009, 13:16

The death rate from this flu is currently very low - less than one percent, and most of those have underlying conditions that reduce their resistance.

However, the hospitalisation rate is about 5%. If this thing goes exponential then the hospitals could be overwhelmed - especially if the staff get the bug at the same time. This might lead to a higher death rate because of the lack of treatment.

This flu is like previous pandemics in as far as it is the normally healthy adults who get it more than the old or very young.

This pandemic is more an economic problem than a medical one.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 12 Jun 2009, 13:21

One possibility explaining the observation that people older than about 50 don't seem to be catching it so easily is that these people gained some immunity from the outbreaks of flu that occurred when they were children.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 12 Jun 2009, 16:38

Ralph -

Connect to the other flu thread, you'll see from the DoH daily data that it HAS gone exponential. Or more correctly, sigmoid curved. (I was wondering if Wm Hill were taking bets for next Thursday).

On Tuesday, they reported 675 cases confirmed in the UK to date.

http://www.dh.gov.uk/en/Publichealth/Fl ... /index.htm

Now 971. Definitely going past 1000 this weekend. Give it a couple of weeks and they won't be in a position to report numbers. Albert Bartlett explains why...

http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/dr_alb ... and_energy

Also bear in mind that the testing criteria is very limited. 'Have you hugged a Mexican in the past ten days?' No? Then we're not testing you.

landyowner · Post by **landyowner** » 12 Jun 2009, 18:10

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:
Definitely going past 1000 this weekend. Give it a couple of weeks and they won't be in a position to report numbers. Albert Bartlett explains why...

Albert Bartlett, I've heard of him somewhere...

re · Post by re » 12 Jun 2009, 18:59

Mean Mr Mustard wrote:Now 971. Definitely going past 1000 this weekend.

There already:
BBC 16:56 GMT, Friday, 12 June 2009
The number of confirmed swine flu cases in the UK has reached 1,004, health authorities have confirmed.

Pennsif · Post by **Pennsif** » 12 Jun 2009, 21:32

Here's a quick graph I've made of the figures for anyone who likes pictures :

Pennsif

PowerSwitch

PANDEMIC! It's Mad Max time!

PANDEMIC! It's Mad Max time!

Exponential growth...