Current Oil Price

Ludwig · Post by **Ludwig** » 29 May 2009, 10:35

This is just what was predicted - any sign of recovery, and oil shoots back up again. (Of course "recovery" in this case just means money has been printed, but still, presumably it is being spent?)

There is also the amplification effect to consider, because of short-term speculation. Oil has probably been "too" low of late, now it's seesawing back up to be "too" high - but I'm sure the general trend will prove to be upward.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 29 May 2009, 11:24

There goes $66.

I think $70 might start the MSM talking again.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 01 Jun 2009, 09:30

And Monday starts with a sprint through $68.

Tapis spot crude well over $70

Did I read last week that this is the fastest 6 month increase in oil price ever?

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 01 Jun 2009, 11:27

Presumably lots of people are thinking "it's going up so I'll buy and I'm so clever I'll be able to sell just before everyone else"

Joules · Post by **Joules** » 05 Jun 2009, 13:12

RalphW wrote:There goes $66.

I think $70 might start the MSM talking again.

Yup: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8084816.stm

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 05 Jun 2009, 13:35

And here is $70 WTI to go with it.

http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes

SILVERHARP2 · Post by **SILVERHARP2** » 05 Jun 2009, 16:00

dont get too excited , the dollar index has started turning up in the last couple of days

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 09 Jun 2009, 20:36

Our ticker got to 70 today.

neckiep · Post by **neckiep** » 10 Jun 2009, 10:02

According to the beeb oil prices have just hit the 2009 high
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8092574.stm

"I wouldn't be surprised if we're testing $80 in a week or two," said Gerard Rigby, an analyst with Fuel First Consulting.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 11 Jun 2009, 09:36

Over $72 on the ticker.

OPEC Will Wait for $100 Oil Before Raising Output

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... zZZhrn9_Xs

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 11 Jun 2009, 15:33

Does anyone have any theories about what's driving this price rise? Have the cuts been "too big"? is oil going into storage? is it the dollar falling? or...?

Peter.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 11 Jun 2009, 16:10

As ever, the price is determined by the traders guessing what other traders think the other traders think the price will be. (There may be a few more steps but I'm not sure whether oil gets a look in.)

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 11 Jun 2009, 16:12

I'm wondering. I think 'speculation' is a part of it, as is more rational hedging against future price rises by consumers like airlines. A lot of physical oil is being stored against future profits. This is different from previous spikes where only virtual oil was traded!

There are lots of 'conspiracy' ideas over at TOD and PO.com. Memmel is seeing that the official number on oil storage (at least in the US) do not seem to add up, and these so called floating storage oil tankers appear to be virtual, because web sites that provide real time tracking of oil tankers by GPS transponders do not show tankers hanging around in places like the Gulf of Mexico waiting to unload.

Oil demand has really only fallen back in the West and is already rebounding in China and India because they are still selling tens of millions of new cars to brand new owners. US demand is bottoming out, with petrol demand level and only aviation fuel down 10% from last year.

Due to low petrol prices in the US refineries have been running at very low capacity, and as a result the US is in danger of running short of petrol again this summer, even as their oil tanks are overflowing!

Also, global production is down 3Mb/d from last year, and supply and demand seem to be leveling. The economic forecasts by EIA and others are less gloomy than a few months ago. All that 'quantitative easing' appears to have done the trick and shorted out the bank crisis (for now) and reversed deflation (not least by devaluing the dollar). All that unearned money in the hands of greedy bankers is looking around for fast profits. Oil looks like a no-brainer.

Finally, as I posted above, OPEC seems in no hurry to pump more oil, although a certain amount of cheating on quotas is bound to happen.

So, to summarise, supply and demand are once more in balance, future supply growth is uncertain, future demand looks to be up, lots of dodgy money and lots of bankers willing to hoard as much physical oil as they can buy.

Until something changes in that set-up, the only way is up.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 11 Jun 2009, 16:20

I met a man last night who makes the hoses that connect single bouy moorings to oil tankers. (Well, I guess he doesn't make them on his own.) He said his particular niche of the oil services industry was doing fine, a full order book and an embarrasing waiting list for new kit to be delivered. I thought it a bit odd in a time of reduced oil shipments, but it seems that more tankers are using smaller ports that don't have deepwater quaysides.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 11 Jun 2009, 16:32

biffvernon wrote:but it seems that more tankers are using smaller ports that don't have deepwater quaysides.

Is that: there are more tankers therefore they are using more of the smaller ports?

Or: more of the existing roughly constant number of tankers are choosing to use smaller ports than deeper ones?

Peter.