Rant: 'The sample of 1' problem

[fifthcolumn]

Agreed that these matter a whole heap - assuming we make use of them to adapt.

And that is exactly the crux of the matter. We don't know what's going to happen.

Given the geopolitical system in this country and most of the world, it won't make a blind bit of difference

From what I can see, the UK is behaving like a third world country in it's response to peak oil.
There are, luckily, regions of the world that are doing something about it, so while I'm pessimistic in broad sweep about the next twenty years, I'm optimistic for the longer term and optimistic for a handful of regions.

The UK, unfortunately, is not one of them.

[Vortex]

I work in oil & gas.
I live in the oil patch.
I talk about depletion with insiders every day.
Does that count?

Of course it does ... but a web 'conversation' is a lot less convincing than having a coffee and exchanging business cards with a besuited Shell or BP exec or engineer.

Seeing the weary look of resignation on an oil professional's face as they discuss depletion is a LOT more worrying than reading any number of 'run to the hills' posts on LATOC.

One top Canadian gas/oil person even said to me something like: "Severe troubles lie ahead - but we can only hope that God will provide."

Scary stuff.

[Blue Peter]

There are, luckily, regions of the world that are doing something about it,

And they are...?


Peter.

[fifthcolumn]

Of course it does ... but a web 'conversation' is a lot less convincing than having a coffee and exchanging business cards with a besuited Shell or BP exec or engineer.

I'd get my balls kicked for spilling inside information. Maybe worse. That kind of information is very, very sensitive and can have huge effects on share prices.

Seeing the weary look of resignation on an oil professional's face as they discuss depletion is a LOT more worrying than reading any number of 'run to the hills' posts on LATOC.

I wonder who you are talking to. I can say with all honesty that there is no "oh god we're doomed mentality" here. Quite the contrary.
The biggest issue is how to make money off of the transition to electification.
Or it was. The focus has moved to nat gas and new oil sands techniques over the last three or four years.

One top Canadian gas/oil person even said to me something like: "Severe troubles lie ahead - but we can only hope that God will provide." Scary stuff.

I wonder which company they work for, because there have been several breakthroughs that put Canada in a very, very good position.

[fifthcolumn]

There are, luckily, regions of the world that are doing something about it,

And they are...?

Try searching for posts of mine and you'll get the picture.

[Vortex]

OK fifthcolumn I stand corrected.

I clearly have wasted my time locating & talking to several people in the oil & gas industries.

They are all clearly misinformed or liars.

I knew I should have stuck to roaming the web to get the full story.

I could kick myself for wasting so much time and money.

OK everyone, please ignore the posts I made above .... stick to peakoil.com and TOD for the truth.

[fifthcolumn]

OK fifthcolumn I stand corrected.

Don't be a baby Vortex. There is room for multiple opinions within the GLOBAL oil and gas industry.

I clearly have wasted my time locating & talking to several people in the oil & gas industries.

Nope. You have obviously talked to the most pessmisitic.

They are all clearly misinformed or liars.

Nope. There are differences of opinion. You can choose to believe the most pessimistic if it fits your beliefs.

But stop being a baby about people disagreeing with your religion.

[Vortex]

fifthcolumn, please refer to my very first post in this thread.

Now what was I saying back there?

Oh yes, someone posts something which appears to have substance - but then someone always comes along who knows better.

The case rests m'lud.


In order to improve YOUR position you have edited my 'story' stating that I have talked to 'the most pessimistic'.

Err, how would I selectively do that? It was hard enough finding ANYONE to talk to!

And as for my 'religion' it certainly is NOT Peak Oil. I would be roaming LATOC if that were the case.

I have a choice: to believe the friendly, adult, 100% validated genuine oil/gas industry people that I have met ... or to believe you and RGR ... will o'the wisps wandering the web..

Even if I DO accept your side of the story, on pure numbers alone I MUST believe the several people that I have discussed PO with.

[fifthcolumn]

Now what was I saying back there?
Oh yes, someone posts something which appears to have substance - but then someone always comes along who knows better.

So what. That means the whole truth is a combination of all the facts in different people's heads with some of the shite thrown out.

My argument with your position and that of many on this site is that they claim to KNOW WITH CERTAINTY what the future holds.

I dispute that.

In order to improve YOUR position you have edited my 'story' stating that I have talked to 'the most pessimistic'.

I'm not trying to improve my position. The only reason I visit this site is because it provides a British perspective on what's going on back home, something that I'd spend hours trying to do for myself.

Err, how would I selectively do that? It was hard enough finding ANYONE to talk to!

How could you selectively do that?
Err... maybe because you actually went looking for someone to talk to specifically about peak oil. And maybe it was hard to find someone because the way peak oil is slanted on sites like this has a lot of extraneous crap added in that is NEVER DISCUSSED in the oil industry.
It's this: how can we make more money? how can we reduce costs? How can we replace our reserves?
"peak oil" doesn't enter in on the conversation, much less crap like "back to the olduvai gorge" and neither does other exotica like "EROEI".

And as for my 'religion' it certainly is NOT Peak Oil.

It most certainly is. Like everyone else on this site. You and I appear to be different cults.

I have a choice: to believe the friendly, adult, 100% validated genuine oil/gas industry people that I have met ... or to believe you and RGR ... will o'the wisps wandering the web..

You can believe whatever you like.
I chose to go find out for myself and did more than just have a couple of chats. I actively saught the opportunity to go work in the oil industry. I went and worked for a supermajor in Norway and then moved my family to the oil patch.

I'm not interested if you believe me or not mate, but I reject your "right or wrong" position. You don't know what's going to happen any better than I do mate but I can tell you this right now: most people on most peak oil sites have no idea about how the oil industry works.
It's certainly not driven by "peak oil will fall on x date and EROEI will decline and everything else revolves around that"

[Vortex]

<sigh>

The very fact that I do NOT know what the story is, and so went out to find people who do shows that I have NO personal 'in built' conviction.

I am simply absorbing the knowledge/opinions of some people who should know.

I have NO certainty about PO ... I need others to tell me what is - or is not - happening.

As for EROEI, you will find posts from me laughing at that total tosh.

As for "back to the olduvai gorge", I don't think I have EVER mentioned that crud.

Re Peak Oil I think that you WILL find that discussed as a concept in the industry .. although perhaps the depletion word is used more often.

To summarise: You are an expert and know best, whilst I admit my ignorance and seek a rough idea of the truth (or not) behind the Peak Oil story.

[RenewableCandy]

Might I point out, as a veteran on this board (who is experiencing "difficulty in replacing dark hair reserves" ) that whereas Vortex has in fact revealed his true i.d. here, 5thCol and RGR have yet to do so?

[fifthcolumn]

<sigh>

Speak for yourself.

The very fact that I do NOT know what the story is, and so went out to find people who do shows that I have NO personal 'in built' conviction.

There's your problem. You assume that there is some hard fast "peak oil story" in the heads of those who work in the oil industry. There is NOT.

There is information about depletion and information about percentage extraction and information about how much reserves need to be replaced and information about costs and information about profits.

That's IT.

I have NO certainty about PO ... I need others to tell me what is - or is not - happening.

Good luck with that because there is NOBODY who knows.
Shell has a scenario called "blueprint vs scramble" but it's flawed.
The problem is that oil companies see everything as being about oil. It's not. There are alternatives, though many peakoilers do their best to deny this.

To summarise: You are an expert and know best, whilst I admit my ignorance and seek a rough idea of the truth (or not) behind the Peak Oil story.

I'm not an expert. I'm guessing as much as you are but I definitely don't get any "oil executives secretly worried that we're doomed" vibe.
I get "oil executives worried about how to replace reserves so they can continue to grow their business" vibe.

In SOME companies and in SOME regions of the world.

Go talk to Petrobras executives or any of several juniors in various places and they will tell you a different story.

And the problem is even more complex than that. It's NOT just about oil even though you have concluded that you will get the total picture by talking to oil people.

It's also about coal, nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, electric batteries, conservation, heat pumps and even "back to thee land" and what happens with the financial system etc etc etc

I'm not taking the piss or saying you shouldn't go talk to your oil executive mates, it's just that such a HUGE endeavour to figure out that I don't think you'll ever get a complete picture. There are too many variables.

From that you can conclude that anyone who claims to know the one true path of the future is more than likely wrong.

For this reason I write off tosh like "the markets will collapse for ever on because they all know that the financial system is predicated on infinite growth [of oil and resources]"

I also write off crap like "there are no substitutes for oil".
I've been and seen with my own eyes.

[Vortex]

Enough of this merry jousting!

I have to go and jab 3 cc of antibiotics into a sheep's backside. Oh joy!

Fire Up The Quattro!

Oops, that should be Fire Up The Pajero .. not quite as tyre screechlingly exciting ... although I doubt that Gene Hunt's Quattro would get down our track let alone across the field!

[Bandidoz]

As for EROEI, you will find posts from me laughing at that total tosh.

Vortex I'm so disappointed in you! I thought you were an engineer, thus you should respect that societies will fail to function if their sources of power ultimately consume more energy than they provide (or almost as much).

False EROEI claims are often used by the anti-wind brigade; citing EROEI studies of wind energy is necessary to refute their bogus claims. Recently I even came across a Hydro protestor attempting to suggest that Hydro doesn't payback......

[Vortex]

Vortex I'm so disappointed in you! I thought you were an engineer, thus you should respect that societies will fail to function if their sources of power ultimately consume more energy than they provide (or almost as much).

EROEI arguments in the mid stages of energy descent are irrelevant. Conversion (even with major wastage) between different forms of energy will be carried out when and where required.

EROEI might even be unimportant in two centuries: using 10000 wind turbines to convert coal or other feedstock into sufficent liquid fuel to fly a 737 once a year might be regarded as a good deal.