Are we post peak?

[Andy_K]

5% a year, giving 50% in ten years (2020).
7% average decline due to lack of new investment 50% in 7 years, 2016.

Thanks Ralph, that's a useful line of thought but is the sunshine affecting my arithmetic or is there something wrong with those numbers?

Looks like they've been calculated additively. The figures should be more like:

At 5%
1yr - 95%
2yr - 90.25%
5yr - 77.4%
10yr - 59.9%
13yr - 51.1%

At 7%
1yr - 93%
2yr - 86.5%
5yr - 69.6%
9yr - 52%
10yr - 48.4%

[PS_RalphW]

I think I ought to clarify that my numbers were pulled out of the air, as I stated in my original post.

Since the theme of my post was that the future is almost certainly going to be more chaotic than the past, and there is little hope of accurately predicting future supply on the downslope, I did not bother calculating precise dates from the supply decline rates I guessed at.

Garbage in, garbage out.

[biffvernon]

Thanks Andy, so it wasn't the sunshine. Nothing wrong with plucking numbers out of the air, Ralph, and your point was good. Just the arithmetic done to the airy numbers that was dodgy. Thinking a 5% decline gives a 50% drop in 10 years is a common mistake. But, hey, what's 3 years between friends. At least RGR now knows what a car park is I wonder if they have allotments across the pond. I think they may call them 'community gardens'.