Are we post peak?

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 30 May 2009, 17:03

I'm sure other will disagree

After reading an articale on TOD I am starting to think that EROI will have a larger impact on us even if we dont peak soon. Its the excess energy that defines the bulk of the human existance.

Cheers

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 30 May 2009, 21:10

[quote="ziggy12345"]

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 30 May 2009, 21:40

Come on, we've had a couple of numbers from Ralph (still think that arithmetic is dodgy) and clv101. What do you think, Ziggy and RGR. What will global production be in say 2020 or when will half peak of about 45mbd occur?

And will a global production drop be felt equally and evenly? Will my corner of the UK fare better or worse than the global average?

These are the sort of things our local government planners need to know about when planning car parks, bus services, vegetable allotment provision...

ziggy12345 · Post by **ziggy12345** » 30 May 2009, 22:36

Why is half peak an important number? The way I see it is that the we are not prepared for and cant even contemplate a world of reducing energy supply so as soon as it hits all hell will break loose. Political and regional instability will put paid to any high tech oil recovery programs such as deep water as they will be too vulnerable. You will see 1/2 peak almost immediately after peak. Irac and Kuwait gave us a small glimpse of what happens to oil production in conflict zones.

Unlike RGR I am realising that the EROI number is more important than we realise in maintaining stability even with stable oil production

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 30 May 2009, 22:51

[quote="biffvernon"]

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 30 May 2009, 22:55

[quote="ziggy12345"]

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 31 May 2009, 06:59

Half peak is not an important number, just a handy tag. If Peak was indeed July 2008 then Half Peak clearly is not following almost immediately. RGR, I understand your reluctance to make predictions, after all, history shows us that most predicticiton turn out to be wrong. But in the realpolitic of local government it would be good to have some idea of the direction and speed of travel.

In my town there is a plot of land in public ownership occupied by a cattlemarket that is not making much money. Some think it should be used as a car-park because the number of cars always rises. Others say it should be converted to allotments because we should be more prepared to feed ourselves locally.

It would be of use to the town planners if they knew when it would be sensible to plan for Half Peak Oil.

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 31 May 2009, 14:52

[quote="biffvernon"]

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 31 May 2009, 16:53

Whatever. For the sake of this discussion lets just pretend that total liquids peaks in the region of 90bbpd so half peak is ~45 bbpd give or take a wide margin.

Do we build car parks or go for allotments for 2020?

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 31 May 2009, 17:49

[quote="biffvernon"]

Post by **clv101** » 31 May 2009, 18:24

I think the state of the global car industry gives us a pretty clear signal not to build any more car parks.

RGR · Post by **RGR** » 31 May 2009, 19:08

[quote="clv101"]

Keela · Post by **Keela** » 31 May 2009, 19:23

Car park = some where to park your car while shopping.

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 31 May 2009, 23:24

“Great Britain and the United States are nations separated by a common language.”

George Bernard Shaw

eg -

"The pedestrian on the sidewalk realized the aluminum airplane was waaay too low and would totally trash the gray automobile in the parking lot".

"The pedestrian on the pavement realised the aluminium aeroplane was rather low and would wreck the grey car in the car park".

Of course, it's a very unllkely scenario. There's no such thing as a pedestrian in the USA...!

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 31 May 2009, 23:27

Keela wrote:Car park = some where to park your car while shopping.

Shopping? Didn't all that end in 2007, both in the UK and USA?