Khebab makes for a convincing argument over at TOD.
So best case we might be on a plateau.
Given that the argument is using UK/Norway data and the UK plateau lasted 7 years, is it reasonable to say the world might plateau for 10?
If so, looking at charts, the bad news is that it seems we've been on a plateau already since 2005.
That gives us until 2015 in that case till depletion kicks in, initially at 4% then followed by 10%.
I think Khebab is making too much out of a limited data set. Not that I think he is wrong, but there could well be systematic bias in the subset of world data that he has. Deepwater wells have very different production profiles to land based ones.
I think last year was the year that the world pumped the most oil it ever will. That is because both demand and new field (re)development is down, and by the time it picks up, we will have lost the 'red queen' race of new development to offset ever increasing decline.
The decline rate is a total unknown, it cannot be less than the geologic decline rate, but it can be more for economic / political reasons, and then it might recover short periods.
Put as a question, will we ever know that if the economy had kept growing that we would have had a clean peak , ie $200 oil and shortages where you could say , ha ha that was it. ?
My working assumption is that we are in a 20 year down trend in economic activity so I cant imagine oil production going higher. so either way we have had peak oil. And again as a question does it matter how peak oil comes about? I'm happier with an economic depression then commodity induced shortages with hoarding etc.
Wasn't there a more recent peak? And does it make a difference if you count just-oil vs all-liquids? And if it does, which one matters more, I wonder (that's enough questions _Ed)
RenewableCandy wrote:Wasn't there a more recent peak? And does it make a difference if you count just-oil vs all-liquids? And if it does, which one matters more, I wonder (that's enough questions _Ed)
Personally I'm hoping that we can push all liquids up a bit more to try to counteract the decline when/if it comes.
That said, the decline rates of the lower 48 were less than the production percentage increase on the way up. In other words the hubbert curve is assymetrical and skewed up and to the right. I hope the world goes like that rather than skewed up and to the left which would be doom on a crutch.
I'm quite fatalistic about this now. Does it matter? I mean it will be when it will be. All you can do is all you can do. Keep changing your life and making the change. If it all starts to go tits up in 10,20 or 30, it wouldn't change what I'm doing now.
Jim
For every complex problem, there is a simple answer, and it's wrong.
"Heaven and earth are ruthless, and treat the myriad creatures as straw dogs" (Lao Tzu V.i).
SunnyJim wrote:I'm quite fatalistic about this now. Does it matter? I mean it will be when it will be. All you can do is all you can do. Keep changing your life and making the change. If it all starts to go tits up in 10,20 or 30, it wouldn't change what I'm doing now.
I think it does matter, in that we will be forced to change from a BAU world to a post-peak world at some point.
A lot of us live in 2 worlds at the moment. I continue on with my business which sells and supports computer systems for business, which depends on a BAU world. Yet, I prepare and have made lots of (smallish) changes for what I expect to happen.
When we are clearly post-peak, BAU will stop and everything will start to change. I intend to be ahead of the pack so that I can cope and be prepared for the change, some of which may be unpleasent.
Filter Feeder wrote:I reckon it was August 2008 - just before the world economy began to crash - coincidence? Hardly...
I think we could have produced more, maybe around 90 mbpd early next decade. But now, with 4.2 mbpd of production delayed or canned and with production already down 3%, I think 2008 will turn out to be the peak year.
SunnyJim wrote:I'm quite fatalistic about this now. Does it matter? I mean it will be when it will be. All you can do is all you can do. Keep changing your life and making the change. If it all starts to go tits up in 10,20 or 30, it wouldn't change what I'm doing now.
That's my view. The preparations I have / am making work on many levels. Whether peak oil or some unrelated economic collapse I will always need heat and food, my preps are going to help me, my family and my neighbours. What more can I do ? Apart from cast my vote the right way and attempt to get my friends growing veg and cutting down on energy usage.
OK, so we're all agreed ( ) Peak Oil was last July. So now we have to move the discussion on to the more important aspect of what shape the downslope will be. When will the milestone of Half Peak occur?
I was at a community meeting last night in which a plan for my town's development was being presented. The timescale went to 2020 and beyond but although there was a small reference to the likelihood of increasing energy prices, the idea that we might be using half the oil we are now was just not on anyone's radar.
) Peak Oil was last July. So now we have to move the discussion on to the more important aspect of what shape the downslope will be. When will the milestone of Half Peak occur?
