Current Oil Price

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 15 May 2009, 23:33

Tess, I take your point about the particular piece I highlighted. On its own it doesn't include a number of different factors that are important in the oil market.

But to be fair, TOD has covered all the particular variables you described earlier eg currency , supply and demand, forecasts of future demand, etc etc, in previous articles.

So as long as you do some wider reading on the site - you will get a good idea of the issues effecting the oil price/market.

To be honest I think you are being a bit harsh, - I dont think much of what is written on TOD is meant for the professional - but if you consider it in the context of us mere mortals - I think they do a good job of explaining the variables effecting oil and the bigger picture (eg energy, economy, politics, climate change etc etc)

Also - there are many oil market 'professionals' who get it wrong and some dont even recognise peak oil! So there 'analysis' cant be that good!

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 15 May 2009, 23:36

biffvernon wrote:It's a chaotic system. Like the weather. No awesome graphs and analysis will tell me if it will rain on my party next month.

LOL I just noticed this post.

Yes I suspect you wouldnt take this viewpoint if the 'awesome graphs and analysis' supported man made climate change - you would be the first to point them out!!

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 15 May 2009, 23:43

Totally_Baffled wrote: To be honest I think you are being a bit harsh

The article obviously isn't designed for professionals, so it's okay as far as it goes. I am very much disagreeing with the "omg that article is so amazing" comment. I found the article misleading and simplistic, and I don't think it's fair to say that just because the oil drum covered other aspects in other articles it somehow redeems this one. This article was attempting to make a self-contained argument for lower oil prices, and although I don't necessarily disagree with the conclusion, I thought the arguments were weak, partial and the conclusion useless.

As to your last point about 'the professionals also get it wrong' I don't see how that makes this article any better. I just find that insulting really. You can't compare an article like this with something PIRA puts out, any more than you could compare a junior school science paper with a PhD thesis, even though both could come to wrong conclusions.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 15 May 2009, 23:54

"omg that article is so amazing" comment.

I didn't say that though, I said:

By the way - the graphs and analysis on TOD are awesome

I was referring to the site in general - apologies for the confusion!

Come on Tess, chill out! - No one is trying to challenge the pro's here on oil futures trading!

I don't see how that makes this article any better.

No it doesnt make the article any better - but perhaps it puts 'getting on your high horse' into context....

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 15 May 2009, 23:57

It's a bit like reading a climate change paper that attributes global warming entirely to the one driver the author happens to be studying. If you know the situation is far more complex than that, how could you be anything but harsh towards the paper, especially if other people came along and started singing its praises? Or maybe you think peak oil benefits from half-assed analysis?

Grr.

I have no sense of humour about this at all.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 16 May 2009, 00:03

Tess wrote:It's a bit like reading a climate change paper that attributes global warming entirely to the one driver the author happens to be studying. If you know the situation is far more complex than that, how could you be anything but harsh towards the paper, especially if other people came along and started singing its praises? Or maybe you think peak oil benefits from half-assed analysis?

Grr. I have no sense of humour about this at all.

Right - ok, I think this is a fair point. Taken in isolation, the article is useless.

But come on, when have you ever seen a post on somewhere like TOD with a 'chapter and verse' analysis of all the variables effecting the oil market? would we even want that? It would be about a million pages long!!!!

If you took all the articles on TOD in isolation they could be all called 'half assed'?

Come on Tess cheer up mate

Ps - How sad are we arguing pedantic points on a midnight on a friday night? Especially after several cobra beers!

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 16 May 2009, 00:11

hehe, fair point.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 16 May 2009, 08:01

Totally_Baffled wrote:
biffvernon wrote:It's a chaotic system. Like the weather. No awesome graphs and analysis will tell me if it will rain on my party next month.
LOL I just noticed this post.

Yes I suspect you wouldnt take this viewpoint if the 'awesome graphs and analysis' supported man made climate change - you would be the first to point them out!!

That's the difference between weather and climate. My summer party will be outside, maybe in a marquee if it rains, my winter party is indoors.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 16 May 2009, 08:05

Tess wrote:It's a bit like reading a climate change paper that attributes global warming entirely to the one driver

Doh, of course that would be silly. One driver could never burn enough petrol - it takes millions and millions of drivers.

How's the veg plot?

dudley · Post by **dudley** » 20 May 2009, 15:54

Oil hovers above $61 as investors eye inventories

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-holds ... .html?.v=4

Oil prices held most of their earlier gains Wednesday after supplies of crude oil and gasoline fell more than expected last week.

U.S. light crude for July delivery was up $1.40 to $61.50 a barrel. Oil had traded up $1.59 to $61.69 a barrel just prior to the report's release.

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks decreased by 2.1 million barrels in the week ended May 15. Analysts were looking for a drop of 1.5 million barrels of crude oil, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts surveyed by Platts, a global energy information provider.

Stockpiles of gasoline decreased by 4.3 million barrels last week, a much more precipitous drop than the 1.7 million barrels analysts had forecast.

Distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, increased by 600,000 barrels. Analysts were looking for a larger build of 1.3 million barrels in distillates.

I'm starting to feel that oil price anxiety again.

Mitch · Post by **Mitch** » 20 May 2009, 20:29

Yea Dudly, know what you mean. I keep trying to force this damned thing into my 2012 timeline - expected the price to start it's rise again round about halfway through next year. Once again it seems to be doing things way too early for my liking!

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 21 May 2009, 10:26

Mitch wrote:Yea Dudly, know what you mean. I keep trying to force this damned thing into my 2012 timeline - expected the price to start it's rise again round about halfway through next year. Once again it seems to be doing things way too early for my liking!

It's a roller-coaster don't forget. Which means 2012 could be a biggie! Stick to your timetable Mitch - it's as good as and probably better than any economist's/politician's.

Price/demand/availability etc etc yawn.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 28 May 2009, 14:35

Time for an update.

WTI just gone through $64

Spot prices on all grades at Upstream over $60. Tapis at $65.75

We are just about full circle on this thread, in just under two years.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 28 May 2009, 18:23

Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2007 2:03 pm

Tess wrote:New all-time intra-day high for WTI is $78.93, and we're still pushing higher.

That was post #1 on this thread, so we have a little way to go. Maybe by September the 12th?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 28 May 2009, 18:37

Just passed $65

so we are getting closer!

PowerSwitch

Current Oil Price

Re: New all time WTI high