Swine Fever - any thoughts?

[Mean Mr Mustard]

After reading this thread I am now the proud owner of

10 x FFP3 masks
15 tins fish
10 tins beans
5 packs pasta
4 bags four + yeast
4 bottles veg oil
8 tins tomato
6 cartons orange juice
5 tins corned beef
5 jars jam

I'm going to go and stock up on firewood later.

It does seem a little silly at this stage, but who knows..

You forgot the rice, spaghetti and coffee / tea.

And the tinned pineapples.

[JohnB]

At the moment I'm more concerned about the state I'll be in after having the remains of a wisdom tooth out in hospital on Wednesday .

[OrraLoon]

Hi Snow


I had a Jim Kunstler cynical moment or five while schlepping around at the Tesco big box store. It was a little scary seeing the many clinically obese with their spawn, all loading up on their junk plastic tat and food supplies. (What recession?) The longer term downslope is going to be rather interesting for those of us and them who survive any immediate piggie flu threat.

Are you saying that the choice is pigging out or pigging out?

[Mean Mr Mustard]

Hey OrraLoon,

I think the buzz phrase in the bird flu papers I saw was 'social avoidance'. Hah, I try to do this routinely, especially hate going to shops, so I think 'pigging in' might be the new fashion.

And what with the wonders of modern wordprocessing, we can substitute 'avian' for 'porcine' influenza, in a simple 'find and replace', and all the official stuff is still 'fit for purpose'. Or at least close enough for Government work.

Could be the final nail in the coffin for restaurants, bars etc. Never liked tacos or tequila that much anyway.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

John,

Good luck with the Wizzies, and say hi to Charlie for me.

As it's a hospital job, the more painful bit will be the £25 an hour to park your campervan.

[JohnB]

John,

Good luck with the Wizzies, and say hi to Charlie for me.

As it's a hospital job, the more painful bit will be the £25 an hour to park your campervan.

Thanks. The hospital apparently has a multi-storey car park, so I probably couldn't even get it it! A friend has an appointment at the same time so we're car sharing

[happychicken]

If this thing were to turn global - I'll be potentially exposed to the virus on a daily basis. I have no choice. It's my job.

And if it was anything like the 1918 pandemic 1000's of volunteers would be needed too.

[Vortex]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/world ... ?ref=world

Let's get one thing straight: I am NOT going to help Abbey find her son. The first time was bad enough.

[Adam1]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/8018428.stm

These are the views of two medics in Mexico City.

I'm a specialist doctor in respiratory diseases and intensive care at the Mexican National Institute of Health. There is a severe emergency over the swine flu here. More and more patients are being admitted to the intensive care unit. Despite the heroic efforts of all staff (doctors, nurses, specialists, etc) patients continue to inevitably die. The truth is that anti-viral treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses. It is a great fear among the staff. The infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff.

There is a sense of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily, and it has been going on for more than three weeks. It is a shame and there is great fear here. Increasingly younger patients aged 20 to 30 years are dying before our helpless eyes and there is great sadness among health professionals here.
Antonio Chavez, Mexico City

I work as a resident doctor in one of the biggest hospitals in Mexico City and sadly, the situation is far from "under control". As a doctor, I realise that the media does not report the truth. Authorities distributed vaccines among all the medical personnel with no results, because two of my partners who worked in this hospital (interns) were killed by this new virus in less than six days even though they were vaccinated as all of us were. The official number of deaths is 20, nevertheless, the true number of victims are more than 200. I understand that we must avoid to panic, but telling the truth it might be better now to prevent and avoid more deaths.
Yeny Gregorio Dávila, Mexico City

[2 As and a B]

The vaccines do not work. They were designed for other flu strains (don't ask me for details!), not this strain.

The antivirals do have an effect, I heard, but I don't know how effective they are except to say they have to be given immediately upon infection - ideally before - for the best effect.

Has anyone else wondered whether this is perhaps a man-made strain of flu? I mean, human and avian and swine?

The World Health Organization has confirmed that at least some of the cases are a never-before-seen version of the H1N1 strain of influenza type A.

H1N1 is the same strain which causes seasonal outbreaks of flu in humans on a regular basis.

But this latest version of H1N1 is different: it contains genetic material that is typically found in strains of the virus that affect humans, birds and swine.

Flu viruses have the ability to swap genetic components with each other, and it seems likely that the new version of H1N1 resulted from a mixing of different versions of the virus, which may usually affect different species, in the same animal host.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8017585.stm

What are the chances of that happening then?

[JonB]

The vaccines do not work. They were designed for other flu strains (don't ask me for details!), not this strain.

The antivirals do have an effect, I heard, but I don't know how effective they are except to say they have to be given immediately upon infection - ideally before - for the best effect.

Has anyone else wondered whether this is perhaps a man-made strain of flu? I mean, human and avian and swine?

The World Health Organization has confirmed that at least some of the cases are a never-before-seen version of the H1N1 strain of influenza type A.

H1N1 is the same strain which causes seasonal outbreaks of flu in humans on a regular basis.

But this latest version of H1N1 is different: it contains genetic material that is typically found in strains of the virus that affect humans, birds and swine.

Flu viruses have the ability to swap genetic components with each other, and it seems likely that the new version of H1N1 resulted from a mixing of different versions of the virus, which may usually affect different species, in the same animal host.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8017585.stm

What are the chances of that happening then?

Very High.
It is not man made.
The WHO have been waiting for this for years.
It is their number 1 concern, and they are as ready
as they can be.
They though SARS was it, and China's cover up
scared a lot of states into co-operation.

Flu has a deliberately unstable genome in the coat
proteins and if I remember correctly, fragments the
genome before assembly to increase recombinant effects.

John Oxford (virologist) has written on Spanish flu,
showing that the pigs/chicken/gassed people mixing
in WW1 behind front areas almost certainly gave this sort of
mixing.

No-one could design something as bad as nature can evolve.

H1N1 refers to protein coat structures. If it is still H1N1 then the
vaccine should have some effect. US sources say this is
treatable by antivirals. The problem is you have to give it
before symptoms become severe.

The UK has some of the best virologists and planning in the world.
We have enough anitvirals for 25% population (WHO recommended)
and it can be made here. There is a crisis plan which has WHO
approval.

The WHO are all over this, and the CDC in the US aren't hanging
around. They know this ******* well, and are as ready as can be.

This is not a game.

By all means stock up, but do not panic, or go to the quack
unless you are in serious trouble. If the crisis plan is
implemented, follow it. They have not been written
by politicians.
Do not try to get tamiflu - governments are still stocking,
and any spare production will no doubt be sent to Mexico.
You will buy either a placebo or something that should go
to someone who really needs it.
Even if you do get it, it is unlikely you will be able to self diagnose
and treat yourself at the correct time.
The 1918 and other viruses went around the world in waves, so if you miss 1 by hiding 2 may get you.

I find it interesting that for all the talk on here about community,
no one has said anything about volunteering or helping neighbours.
If tings get bad I have 2 lots of neighbours I will look out for
and a plan on how to look after my elderly mother in another city.

[Andy Hunt]

If it was man-made I would have expected it to start in China.

[JonB]

If it was man-made I would have expected it to start in China.

[adam2]

After reading this thread I am now the proud owner of

10 x FFP3 masks
15 tins fish
10 tins beans
5 packs pasta
4 bags four + yeast
4 bottles veg oil
8 tins tomato
6 cartons orange juice
5 tins corned beef
5 jars jam

I'm going to go and stock up on firewood later.

It does seem a little silly at this stage, but who knows..

Not silly at all IMHO, even if this flu turns out to be a non-event, we still face risks of industrial disputes, extreme weather, fuel shortages, civil disorder etc etc. Best to be prepared not just for flu pandemics, but disruptions in general.

[PS_RalphW]

I have a sore throat.