Swine Fever - any thoughts?

[fifthcolumn]

This is entertaining. They've discovered a potential case in Montreal.

So I make that about five days before it gets here.

Good thing I'm stockpiled with guns, ammo, canned food and tamiflu.

[Vortex]

I'm VERY scared by this.

This makes PO + economic collapse look like a walk in the park.

I think its time to buy a mask, anyone know what types are virus repallant?

A: This is probably media hype ... but if you are worried ...

B: Only the BEST masks work ... N95 ... and get ones with exhaust valves otherwise you will get all clammy. The cheap 'building dust' masks do NOT work ... except to keep you from touching your mouth and nose. Note however that N95 rated masks can be expensive ... expecially if bought from 'survival stores'.

C: WASH YOUR HANDS regularly ... the best defence!

D: Get some disposable gloves.

E: Keep away from people if possible.

F: Have a couple of weeks worth of food etc in the house.

[fifthcolumn]

On a rather more morbid note, this flu is similar to the 1918 strain which also killed 6% of it's victims.

50 million people died worldwide in 1918 of the flu.

In those days there was only 2 billion people of whom half were poor.
This time around there are more than 6 billion people, of whom 5 out of 6 are poor.

So baseline is 150 million dead and potentially many more.

In the UK alone we're looking at between 1 - 3.5 million people dead

[chris25]

I'm VERY scared by this.

This makes PO + economic collapse look like a walk in the park.

I think its time to buy a mask, anyone know what types are virus repallant?

A: This is probably media hype ... but if you are worried ...

B: Only the BEST masks work ... N95 ... and get ones with exhaust valves otherwise you will get all clammy. The cheap 'building dust' masks do NOT work ... except to keep you from touching your mouth and nose. Note however that N95 rated masks can be expensive ... expecially if bought from 'survival stores'.

C: WASH YOUR HANDS regularly ... the best defence!

D: Get some disposable gloves.

E: Keep away from people if possible.

F: Have a couple of weeks worth of food etc in the house.

N95 are apparently not good enough. You have to have N99, or British FFP3.

Trouble is FFP3 masks cost a lot, nonetheless I will be buying

[snow hope]

Slow down guys and gals. It is not quite TEOTWAWKI quite yet.

There is news tonight that a school in New York has up to a couple of hundred cases, but not yet confirmed as Swine Flu - just likely at this stage. And we have a couple of hundred deaths in Mexico with odd cases detected in Texas and California and a couple of other places, so not exactly a pandemic yet

On the other hand WHO have advised that this is a definate concern, so we should certainly pay close attention and potentially make some sensible preparations just in case things escalate.

I think for the moment we need to keep abreast of the situation, try to see through the meida hype, try to assess the real danger (if any) and start sensible precautions. It could be worrying, but probably isn't.

[Vortex]

Ooops ... I actually do have FPP3 ... but I thought that they were also N95 ...

[willf]

possible case in london now in man who has flown in from mexico city.....

I'm off to buy food and water.

[chris25]

possible case in london now in man who has flown in from mexico city.....

I'm off to buy food and water.

Good idea.

Even if this thing kills only 1% of catchers, the damage-to-just in time infrastructure, the food, water and utilities industries will be catastrophic.

This is potentially the worst of the worst doomer events that could ever happen bar Yellowstone park.

Of course, the virulent strain may not have spread from Mexico City, and the strains in the USA + UK may just be/will be a-non virulent flu-like virus. Then we are allright.

But if this thing starts popping off people worldwide, then we panic.

I have two bushels of grain, a few crates of baked beans but generally very little food at all.

Intending to add energy dense food such as dried beans and hazlenuts.

Oh and cooking oil. Can never be too prepared.

[2 As and a B]

P A N I C !

P A N I C !

P A N I C !

P A N I C !

[Vortex]

The UK case is NOT the 'bad' flu version.

[adam2]

Anyway this thing has only a 7% mortality rate.

The 7% mortality rate appears to be based on the number infected and the number dead in the outbreak in Mexico.
This is a very small sample, from a small area. If the outbreak becomes widespread, as appears likely, then the mortality rate could be much more, or less than 7%.
Standards of general health, and of healthcare vary very considerably, some racial or ethnic groups may be more or less vulnerable.

[Mean Mr Mustard]

The UK case is NOT the 'bad' flu version.

Ha! Which is exactly what Mrs Mustard said, as I returned from panic buying at Tescos, adding to the Mustard Household buffer stock, several of the following -

Powdered milk
sunflower oil
fruit squashes
longlife milk
jars of coffee
dired bread yeast
tinned tomatoes
Fruit and nut
choccy bars
tinned sausage and beans
ten packets sr and plain flour (bread etc)
long grain rice
corned beef tins
spaghetti, tinned and dry
tuna chunks
pasta sauces
pasta quills
tinned fruit
tinned custard
Sunday Times. Well just one of these but it will take three weeks to read it all.

£85. ...Every little helps. The guy on the checkout was sneezing, I kid you not...


The WHO are very concered - time to monitor their reports. (Perhaps The Who are also concerned, Roger Daltrey and Pete will be having a press conference soon?)

To gauge the potential impact of a pandemic you need to know the attack rate and morbidity rate. 7% would be well outside current Govt planning assumptions. Something like 1% fatalities over a six month period would have major effects - damn near every vital business is manned to minimum levels anyway, and it only takes worried well, unwell, bereaved, school closures, with media scares to kick things off, to have a big effect. That's why I got in quick.

Chances are that this food won't be needed soon here - but check back on that post I put up a while ago about resilience in the UK food supply chain (not much) and what the hell, our money isn't earning interest anywhere near the food inflation rate anyway, and this stuff keeps.

Next job today is to top up the jerrycans with diesel, (recently used as it has to be rotated) and get a fresh cash reserve from the ATM. Top up on prescriptions next week. Then set up some work from home projects, so time at the office can be reduced, if necessary.

[snow hope]

Hmmm. nothing wrong with making preps, but I am not yet convinced we have a problem on our hands..... anybody really feel different? Surely we are still at the monitoring closely stage to see if it is as bad as Mexico seems to be indicating and whether it is really spreading? Even the Who report seems to be saying this could be the start of a pandemic, but to me that means it is probably not.....

[Mean Mr Mustard]

Hi Snow

I'm not yet convinced either. But one shouldn't need to be to adopt the precautionary principle. Luckily nobody else in Tescos was convinced - you don't need aything like a consensus among the sheeple before your options are all gone. They've already just about run out of some types of bread flour - in a major store.

As my OU tutor said - JIT's OK, but JTL is not.

I had a Jim Kunstler cynical moment or five while schlepping around at the Tesco big box store. It was a little scary seeing the many clinically obese with their spawn, all loading up on their junk plastic tat and food supplies. (What recession?) The longer term downslope is going to be rather interesting for those of us and them who survive any immediate piggie flu threat.

[sam_uk]

After reading this thread I am now the proud owner of

10 x FFP3 masks
15 tins fish
10 tins beans
5 packs pasta
4 bags four + yeast
4 bottles veg oil
8 tins tomato
6 cartons orange juice
5 tins corned beef
5 jars jam

I'm going to go and stock up on firewood later.

It does seem a little silly at this stage, but who knows..