Should we simply prepare for a prolonged downturn?

[Ludwig]

The unifying factor? A deep and strong anger (hate?) concerning MPs finances, banks and City pensions & bonuses.

This is almost universal ... NOT just one or two grumpy people.

If the BNP can reach & exploit these people they will win ANY election they go for ...

Sadly, that's just human nature. Find someone to blame. The fact is we've all been riding on the back of the prosperity these bankers have brought to the UK and no one was complaining until now.

Peak Oil is going to hit the whole world. It's nobody's fault, as such, much as many would like it to be. Capitalism was a train we couldn't get off, and we've reached the end of the line. Vote for who you like, the good times are gone forever.

[fifthcolumn]

Peak Oil is going to hit the whole world. It's nobody's fault, as such, much as many would like it to be. Capitalism was a train we couldn't get off, and we've reached the end of the line. Vote for who you like, the good times are gone forever.

If the government plan is to deny peak oil and say the hard times are the fault of e.g. the Iranians, then those who caused the financial crisis can be let off the hook while we get all patriotic against the "enemy".

If things get even worse they can use the excuse that "the war is going badly" and we can just sullenly get on with our new poorer lifestyle.

Perhaps that's the plan.

[GordyJ1984]

I'm 24 and I have had a deep sense of dread ever since reading "Last Light". I went onto LATOC and got more and more scared being totally unprepared for what is likely to happen. Not sure if it was the American angle of the site but eventually I came out of my dread slightly, thinking/hoping - know a guy in the oil business who claimed there would be other energy sources and the oil companies are just squeezing us for every penny they can get waiting until the last moment to hit us with these new techs and charge us a fortune for them. I sucked that line in and became a bit more happy. But the dread has been building again and I am nowhere near in a position to survive come a crash. My parents recently talked me out of buying a house.

I worked for the child support agency from June 23 collecting debts, first 3 months ringing guys getting money in off them all straight forward enough. However the 3 months after it was phonecall after phonecall of guys who were losing their job.
I got promoted in january dealing with a new benefit and there are an incredible amount of people trying to get it. Most are not elligible.

How can Britain support an increaded demand on Jobseekers or ESA? With less tax paxers to fund it.

Im 24, luckily with no debts, junior management level in civil service now so I hope that will insulate me slightly. I tried to get a move to within my family home but no joy so instead of buying close to my current work I think I shall rent the cheapest place I can find and hope I can ride it out.

Tried with no luck to get my parents and larger family aware but Im looked on as a crack. People will not listen until it is too late.

Britain is finished we just havnt accepted it yet

[fifthcolumn]

I'm 24 and I have had a deep sense of dread ever since reading "Last Light". I went onto LATOC and got more and more scared being totally unprepared for what is likely to happen.

Mate,
Here's the deal.
We're probably not facing the olduvai gorge.
We probably ARE facing the final collapse of the Anglo-American Empire.
It doesn't mean the end of the world.
It does mean that our lifestyles are going to be a lot cushier than they have been before.

It's probably no consolation, but you are in a pretty good position, and unlike many, you will probably not be laid off.

Britain is also not finished. It will go through another period of relative decline. How long it will take before it picks up again is anybody's guess but it's likely to be a couple of decades.

I feel worse for those young kids who are just starting university at the moment. They are fncked.

[Ludwig]

All our talk about a forthcoming 'difficult world' is now becoming reality ... in the form of an unexpected (?) recession.

I was expecting a recession from the day I heard about Peak Oil. My brother explained PO to me in two minutes, said it would mean the terminal collapse of the stock market, I thought it made perfect sense, and have been bracing myself ever since.

Now I've lost my job and I think having anticipated it for a year and a half made it a little easier to take when it came.

I see stability as gone forever and plans beyond the short term as largely pointless.

In response to another point you make: what's happening now IS Peak Oil - everything from now on is Peak Oil. (And climate change, I would guess.)

[fifthcolumn]

I was expecting a recession from the day I heard about Peak Oil. My brother explained PO to me in two minutes, said it would mean the terminal collapse of the stock market, I thought it made perfect sense, and have been bracing myself ever since.

What if peak oil means saw tooth recessions and recoveries on a lower and lower level of production till the ground is reached, where we bump along till we finally recover based on renewables.

In truth that's the likely outcome unless we bomb the planet with nukes, so you might be being a bit pessmistic.

During the brief "recoveries" you will have the opportunity to get together some more material with which to survive the next downturn.

Ultimately the entire economy will be composed of jobs that are recession proof.

Or else we will be eating each other.

[Ludwig]

I'm 24 and I have had a deep sense of dread ever since reading "Last Light". I went onto LATOC and got more and more scared being totally unprepared for what is likely to happen. Not sure if it was the American angle of the site but eventually I came out of my dread slightly, thinking/hoping - know a guy in the oil business who claimed there would be other energy sources and the oil companies are just squeezing us for every penny they can get waiting until the last moment to hit us with these new techs and charge us a fortune for them. I sucked that line in and became a bit more happy. But the dread has been building again and I am nowhere near in a position to survive come a crash. My parents recently talked me out of buying a house.

I worked for the child support agency from June 23 collecting debts, first 3 months ringing guys getting money in off them all straight forward enough. However the 3 months after it was phonecall after phonecall of guys who were losing their job.
I got promoted in january dealing with a new benefit and there are an incredible amount of people trying to get it. Most are not elligible.

How can Britain support an increaded demand on Jobseekers or ESA? With less tax paxers to fund it.

Im 24, luckily with no debts, junior management level in civil service now so I hope that will insulate me slightly. I tried to get a move to within my family home but no joy so instead of buying close to my current work I think I shall rent the cheapest place I can find and hope I can ride it out.

Tried with no luck to get my parents and larger family aware but Im looked on as a crack. People will not listen until it is too late.

Britain is finished we just havnt accepted it yet

I feel for you, GordyJ - I know that feeling of dread, and it took me a long time to get over it. Perhaps I'm not over it - all I know is that I treat every day of normality now as a blessing.

You're not in such a bad situation - sounds like you've got as secure a job as any, and you're good at it and the fact you know about PO suggests you've got your head screwed on. You'll be a step ahead of most people, psychologically, when the bad news gets out.

I also think not buying a house will prove a good move. I wish I hadn't done it

[eatyourveg]

Well, my own preparations are, and have been since I came across PO, for a long, slow downturn, whilst keeping a close eye on the possibility of things turning all LATOC.
I consider myself fortunate to have had the opportunity to make these plans and implement them one by one.

I still find it unbelievable that the general populace are still sleepwalking, but am resigned to the fact that sheep/yeast behaviour is deeply ingrained in our make-up, and that being the case, take every advantage that this knowledge brings.

My preparations no longer include talking about PO. It's not worth even mentioning. If pressed about why I do certain things I simply say that I am concerned about multiple resource depletion issues. That one always gets a laugh .

The big thing to get through all of this as best possible is to consider it a challenge, but not to be overcome, it can't be - just to mitigate.

I would say to the posters who are finding it all a bit too much to accept that is exactly what it is. So accept it anyway and do whatever you have to do to give yourself purpose. We function better when we have purpose.

[Ludwig]

Peak Oil is going to hit the whole world. It's nobody's fault, as such, much as many would like it to be. Capitalism was a train we couldn't get off, and we've reached the end of the line. Vote for who you like, the good times are gone forever.

If the government plan is to deny peak oil and say the hard times are the fault of e.g. the Iranians, then those who caused the financial crisis can be let off the hook while we get all patriotic against the "enemy".

If things get even worse they can use the excuse that "the war is going badly" and we can just sullenly get on with our new poorer lifestyle.

Perhaps that's the plan.

Wouldn't surprise me. Inventing, or finding, an enemy is a tried and tested way of keeping an impoverished country stable, or at least manageable.

In fact my view is that governments have already been doing this. I am not convinced the terror threat is all it seems.

One thing is certain: no government will acknowledge Peak Oil, because there is no point in doing so. People either won't believe it, or they will insist the government do something about it, which it can't. More the former I suspect. I have mentioned PO to 15 or 16 people, and I've STILL yet to make a convert The reactions I've got have been denial or an immediate change of subject. I wonder what's different about me that I accepted it from the start - probably innate pessimism I suppose

[Ludwig]

The big thing to get through all of this as best possible is to consider it a challenge, but not to be overcome, it can't be - just to mitigate.

I would say to the posters who are finding it all a bit too much to accept that is exactly what it is. So accept it anyway and do whatever you have to do to give yourself purpose. We function better when we have purpose.

Yes, well said. I think it must be a bit like coming to terms with a terminal disease - at first there's anger, panic and denial, but gradually a certain acceptance comes through.

The most painful thing, for me, is finding myself daydreaming about the kinds of plans and ambitions I used to have for the future, and suddenly remembering they're unfeasible. I think this is part of the problem with the way society has become: we're encouraged to concentrate on our ambitions and our "vertical" progress through life, at the expense of those "horizontal" connections with the here and now and with people around us.

[Keela]

I think this is part of the problem with the way society has become: we're encouraged to concentrate on our ambitions and our "vertical" progress through life, at the expense of those "horizontal" connections with the here and now and with people around us.

Now that sounds just about how it is!

Good analogy.

[biffvernon]

I've been preparing for a prolonged downturn for thirty years. It's high time we had one.

Blimey, you must have been a hoot at school

Flattery. More than 30 years really. I moved out of London in 1979, after failing to win a parliamentary seat for the Ecology Party, and bought a smallholding in Lincolnshire.

[chubbygristle]

The most painful thing, for me, is finding myself daydreaming about the kinds of plans and ambitions I used to have for the future, and suddenly remembering they're unfeasible. I think this is part of the problem with the way society has become: we're encouraged to concentrate on our ambitions and our "vertical" progress through life, at the expense of those "horizontal" connections with the here and now and with people around us.

Yes. The most of the modern economy is about giving people false / unachievable aspirations as a means to sell things to them and keep them wanting / working / consuming. You are spot on with the verticle progress thing. Taking a step 'backwards' is unthinkable to most people and makes them angry when they have spent most of their lives 'climbing the ladder'.

One of the things I spent a lot of time doing when I first heard of Peak Oil (through LATOC in about 2005) was incessantly worry about it all. There's a lot to be said for remembering that we *are* in the present and should make the most of it. Every day of 'normality' is a blessing as someone pointed out above. Working towards becoming more self sustaining and prepared is something to focus on and this is a good thing. Worry and anxiety (as difficult as it is not to have them) achieves sod all other than wasting time and energy, that we have available to us now, on things in an imagined future that we can't be 100% certain of anyway (I mean uncertainty of exactly how things will unfold in such a complex society). Well - this is the mindset I am trying to put myself into in order to cope with things. Yes, I know it's all going to poo and yes I need to focus on doing something about it but squandering every waking moment on worry and stress about it all was a waste of one of the most precious and finite resources that I have and that's my time. I am not suggesting going into denial about it. More like, focusing on positive things to do about it as opposed to Peak Oil itself.

I think this is the only way to stay out of a very dark debilitating place! (which I am sure most people on here have visited at times )

It also might seem a bit contradictory as I don't always manage to achieve this way of thinking 100% of the time

[DominicJ]

I'm not sure there is a difference really between preps for PO and Economic Downturn

Is it really worth worrying about 'point' issues such as Peak Oil?

I dont think I do worry about it.
I'm aware of it, I deal with it, but its a rational thing, not an emotional one.

Would it not be easier all round to assume that we are entering a shitty decade or two (at least in the UK) and simply do everything we can to pay the bills and put food on the table?

Sounds like that applies, PO or not

Perhaps we should walk away from forums such as this and start working on improving the house insulation, getting a second (or first!) job, growing food etc.

I am improving my house, not as much as I'd like, no solar water heating, emergency water tank or back up power, but I've got a fair bit of insulation. I have a job, second ones arent out there, alhough I have something in the pipeline for 2010, my garden grows some fruit, that crop will only increase, I also grow some herbs and will have chickens before the end of summer.

Just general WW2 style Backs To The Wall survival measures.

Thats pretty much what I'm doing
I'd like to have a 100acre small holding, a variety of animals, crops and woodland, a couple of 10,000 gallon underground diesel storage tanks and have recruited a dozen homeless ex soldiers into my Sardaukar, but short of buying a lottery ticket and winning, that aint happening.

[Andy_K]

I have mentioned PO to 15 or 16 people, and I've STILL yet to make a convert The reactions I've got have been denial or an immediate change of subject. I wonder what's different about me that I accepted it from the start - probably innate pessimism I suppose

I'd wager it's more likely the way you present it. I've foung that getting people to believe that global oil production may be approximately at an all time peak isn't so difficult. It's what you infer the consequences are that determines whether you lose them or not.